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Douglas Schoen: The race to replace Newsom nears the homestretch

March 13, 2026

California may be a deep-blue bastion – Democrats outnumber Republicans almost 2:1 (45% to 25%) – but the Golden State’s jungle primary system sometimes lends itself to unpredictable outcomes.

Indeed, a slate of new polls suggests that as the race to succeed Gov. Newsom heats up, it remains anyone’s guess as to which two candidates will advance to the general election from June’s non-partisan primary.

The first poll, conducted by Emerson College, shows Democratic Congressman – and late entrant into this race – Eric Swalwell leading with 17% of the vote, slightly ahead of Republicans Steve Hilton (13%) and Chad Bianco (11%), as well as fellow Democrat Tom Steyer (11%).

Behind those four candidates, former Representative – and past favorite – Katie Porter (8%) is in fifth, with former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former HHS secretary Xavier Becerra (3% apiece) tied for a distant fifth.

To be sure, a considerable plurality (25%) of the electorate remains undecided, indicating that there is plenty of room for Steyer or Porter to catch Swalwell.

Notably, only Swalwell and Steyer have seen their vote share rise since Emerson’s February poll, with the former going up 3-points and Steyer rising by two.

The second survey to come out in recent days was from UC Berkeley’s Citrin Center, and this one may be more important for California Democrats.

According to UC Berkeley, Hilton (19%) leads the field, with Steyer (13%), Swalwell, Porter, and Bianco (11% each) rounding out the top five.

Taken together, a few things are evident, even in this very unpredictable race.

On the Democratic side, Swalwell, Steyer, and Porter have clearly cemented themselves as first-tier candidates.

In the case of Swalwell, his time in Congress – and the fact that he’s often on the receiving end of President Trump’s ire – may prove critical.

According to Emerson, nearly two-thirds (64%) of California voters want the next governor to stand up to the Trump administration. And, among that majority, Swalwell (25%) is the top choice, a full 10-points ahead of Steyer and 13-points ahead of Porter.

For Steyer, this rise is almost certainly a result of his massive spending.

The billionaire progressive and former presidential candidate has contributed nearly $70 million to his own campaign, spending heavily on ads while positioning himself as a far-left populist.

Between both polls, other Democrats like Xavier Becerra and Antonio Villaraigosa failed to top 5%, likely due to their overlapping bases of support – a point I’ve previously made in these pages.

As Politico noted, Swalwell and Steyer’s breakout was facilitated by the race’s unsettled nature and inability of any single candidate to break away from the pack and emerge as a frontrunner.

To that end, the sheer number of Democratic candidates – UC Berkeley tested nine – guarantees that, unless one or multiple drop out, Democrats will split the vote, giving at least one of the GOP candidates an opening.

At the same time, the polls reveal an increasingly narrow path for moderate Democrat Matt Mahan.

The San Jose Mayor is a newcomer to the race, having only launched his campaign in late January, but his centrist positions and relationship with deep-pocketed donors could have made him a formidable candidate.

Currently, a Super PAC is trying to boost Mahan in LA and Southern California, but it remains to be seen whether he will simply take away votes from other Democrats, or if he’ll build his own base of support.

What should alarm Mahan is that, per the UC Berkeley poll, he received just 2% of crossover GOP votes, whereas even Steyer received 5%.

While that’s within the margin of error, Mahan is considerably more moderate than Steyer, thus it’s likely that Mahan’s lack of name recognition is hurting him with critical Independents.

In fact, “nearly 30 percent of respondents” in the Berkeley poll “said they had never heard of Mahan.”

Moreover, these polls set up what could be a nightmare scenario for Democrats: what if Democrats split the votes to such a degree that Hilton and Bianco can advance?

A Politico analysis of the UC Berkeley poll hypothesizes that Hilton’s 6-point lead over Bianco means that Republicans are coalescing around Hilton – leaving a spot open for a Democrat – yet there are reasons Democrats should worry.

Roughly one-fifth (19%) of Democratic voters remain undecided – as do 32% of Independents. Conversely, just 7% of Republicans are undecided, per UC Berkeley.

If none of the leading Democrats are able to secure the lion’s share of the undecided votes while Republican undecideds split somewhat evenly – and get some of the Independents – it’s not out of the realm of possibility that no Democrat secures a spot in the general.

To be clear, this is not to suggest that this is the most likely outcome, and if multiple Democrats drop out, support could consolidate around one or two of Swalwell, Porter, and Steyer.

Rather, it is to point out that with so many Democrats running and the failure of any candidate to secure front-runner status, it is not out of the realm of possibility.

As such, with June’s primary rapidly approaching, candidates will have to figure out how to make a compelling case for their plans to address Californians’ top priorities – the economy and housing affordability per Emerson.

Ultimately, the total inability of the Democratic candidates to separate themselves in this crowded field has led to a truly uncertain race.

Whether or not this allows for the previously unimaginable scenario where two Republicans emerge remains to be seen, although it’s unlikely.

That being said, with less than three months until voters make their choice, if neither of the three leading Democrats break away from the pack, it may be significantly closer than anyone would have thought.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.

Orange County Register

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Douglas Schoen: The race to replace Newsom nears the homestretch

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