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Horse racing: Kentucky Derby contention extends to a colt from Japan

April 30, 2026

Contenders in the 152nd Kentucky Derby look so evenly matched that bettors are advised to cast a wide net in trying to find the winner.

Is a net that stretches to Japan wide enough?

When 3-year-old colts from Japan began running in the Kentucky Derby a decade ago, it was rational to dismiss their chances of winning. That country’s rising thoroughbred industry and its world-beating aspirations were to be admired. But transpacific forays to America’s most famous race seemed over-ambitious – someday they might make sense.

Someday arrived when Japan-bred Forever Young was the third nose on the wire in the 2024 Derby won by Mystik Dan, probably denied victory by bumping with second-place finisher Sierra Leone in the stretch at Churchill Downs.

Forever Young’s subsequent victory in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar removed any doubt that the best Japanese products of a given year can be a match for the best of the United States.

This year, two horses from Japan are among the 20 (plus two on the also-eligible list, awaiting further scratches) ready to go into the starting gate in Louisville, Ky., at about 3:57 PDT Saturday.

One is Wonder Dean, who, like Forever Young, was bred in Japan and earned the points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby by going to Dubai and winning the UAE Derby in late March.

The more tantalizing, though, is Danon Bourbon, a Kentucky-bred who has done all of his racing in Japan and got into the Derby by winning the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama Racecourse.

A son of Maxfield, whose victories included two Grade I stakes and a 5 for 5 record at Churchill Downs, Danon Bourbon was purchased in a yearling auction for $450,000 by Danox Co. Ltd., a prominent Japanese horse ownership entity run by software billionaire Masahiro Noda.

It can be hard for American handicappers to size up horses from unfamiliar circuit in places like Japan, because we don’t have a feel for the strength of the competition or the nature of the running surfaces. But what we know about Danon Bourbon says he’s full of potential.

He’s undefeated in three starts. His victory two starts back at Kyoto Racecourse came at 1 3/16 miles, making him one of three horses (along with Wonder Dean and Louisiana Derby winner Emerging Market) who have won at a distance close to the Kentucky Derby’s 1¼ miles. His victory in the Fukuryu Stakes came in visually impressive style, racing close to the lead early before bursting clear late to win by 3½ lengths over a Derby-nominated colt named Don Erectus. And Danon Bourbon was clocked in 1:50.9 for 1⅛ miles, on a track listed as muddy, shattering the record for the Fukuryu.

There are caveats: Danon Bourbon has raced only on right-handed tracks, and Churchill Downs is left-handed. He can’t be said to have beaten the quality of horses that the top Americans have. And jockey Atsuya Nishimura and trainer Manabu Ikezoe are unproven here.

Maybe those the reasons Danon Bourbon is listed at 20-1 on the Derby morning line and was 14-1 in early betting at the time this column was filed Thursday afternoon.

Such odds are tempting in a year when none of the U.S. contenders has separated himself from the crowd, and several early-season favorites have been sidelined.

My wide net covers Further Ado (6-1 on the morning line), Renegade (4-1 favorite), Commandment (6-1), So Happy (15-1), Chief Wallabee (8-1), The Puma (10-1) and Emerging Market (15-1) as well as Danon Bourbon.

Further Ado’s Blue Grass Stakes victory was the fastest race by a Derby contender, and he has won at Churchill, as have Commandment and Incredibolt; but his two best performances came at Keeneland, giving some bettors pause. Commandment’s Florida Derby win was his second around two turns at the Grade I and Grade II levels, a distinction matched only by Further Ado. Renegade looked great pulling away in the Arkansas Derby, and Irad Ortiz Jr. rides him instead of Further Ado; starting from post 1 might not hurt a come-from-behind horse like him.

So Happy, the Santa Anita Derby winner with jockey Mike Smith for trainer Mark Glatt, is the best of the California horses (the others are Potente, Intrepido, Pavlovian, Litmus Test and, if he gets in, Robusta). He has broken through doubts about his stamina once, and has to be respected.

If you think one horse stands out, you’ll get attractive odds. As of Thursday afternoon, Renegade was the favorite at 9-2.

If not, it’s a year to shop for big odds for a win bet, or shoot for multi-horse bets like trifectas and superfectas whose payoffs multiply quickly in such a huge field.

Having correctly picked Forever Young to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November, I’m not going to miss the chance to pick Danon Bourbon to give Japan another historic win in America in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday.

My Kentucky Derby picks: 1. Danon Bourbon, 2. Further Ado, 3. Renegade, 4. So Happy, 5. Emerging Market.

Follow horse racing correspondent Kevin Modesti at X.com/KevinModesti.

KENTUCKY DERBY

When: 3:57 p.m. PDT Saturday

Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville

TV: NBC (Ch. 4)

Orange County Register

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Horse racing: Kentucky Derby contention extends to a colt from Japan

KENTUCKY DERBY

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