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Dodgers no longer the (only) juggernaut in the NL West

March 28, 2023

The Dodgers and San Diego Padres have known each other for a long time. But their relationship status has recently changed.

Now – it’s complicated.

For the past decade, the Dodgers have been the big-market powerhouse flaunting its privileges, collecting stars, running up payroll numbers that few if any other franchises dared to match and entering each season as clear-cut division favorites and often the short-odds choice to win it all. The Padres sat in their seaside small market, watched the waves and nursed an inferiority complex.

“I’ve been on both sides and I do recall being on that other side feeling like the little brother vs. the big brother,” acknowledged Dave Roberts who spent two seasons on the Padres’ roster as a player and five more as a coach before becoming the Dodgers’ manager in 2016. “I can say that because I’ve lived it.”

Things have changed as the 2023 season begins. The Padres are the ones collecting stars – Xander Bogaerts this winter joining Manny Machado, Juan Soto and (when his suspension has been served) Fernando Tatis Jr. not to mention Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove in the starting rotation. The Padres are the ones with the robust payroll, throwing money around at a rate only the New York teams have topped this year. The Padres are the ones with a potential mental edge after prevailing in the postseason last fall.

And the Padres are the ones, in many quarters, being touted as favorites over the Dodgers to win the National League West and contend for a championship this season.

“Don’t really care who’s the favorite or not,” Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw said this spring when asked about the Padres’ ascent.

“They made splashy moves. Great for them. They’ve still got to go out and win. You’ve seen it in the past with teams where they make splashy moves but they don’t go out and win,” infielder Max Muncy said.

“You can have whatever team you want on paper but you’ve still got to go out there and do it between the lines.”

The Dodgers have produced some mighty fine paper over the past decade.

Last year, their Opening Day lineup featured eight players who have been named All-Stars (including starting pitcher Walker Buehler) and three former league MVPs. The talent that packed up and left Camelback Ranch a year ago was so impressive that shortstop Trea Turner referenced the ‘Monstars’ of “Space Jam” fame – a powerhouse team that also lost its biggest game of the year.

This year, the Dodgers prepare to open the season as defending division champs for the ninth time in the past 10 years – but not quite looking like those juggernauts of the past.

“I do agree,” said Kershaw, a 16-year veteran usually reluctant to compare teams year to year. “I think on paper last year we knew we were going to win a lot of games. But I don’t necessarily know if that’s a good thing or a bad thing – to come out of camp and just know that you’re that good. It’s different too as a player. Regardless of what everybody thinks a player is going to do based on track record, you still have to go perform. Like, even though Mookie and Freddie are all-world baseball players, they don’t think they just have to show up and play.

“There’s that element with everybody. You don’t know if this is going to be somebody’s best year, you don’t know if it’s going to be somebody’s worst year. I think with that, it creates some optimism, some excitement that we have some unknowns with the team. Which I think might be good. Obviously, we think positively of the guys who are going to get a chance but might not have a track record. If they perform, we could be pretty dang good.”

The Dodgers almost certainly will be good. Whether they rise to the level of “pretty dang good” again will likely be determined by the answers to more questions than they typically have had entering recent seasons.

Can their bargain-bin collection of veterans on one-year contracts (Noah Syndergaard, Jason Heyward, David Peralta and J.D. Martinez) offset the subtractions from last year’s team (Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger and Tyler Anderson, in particular)?

Having already sustained the loss of Gavin Lux to a season-ending knee injury this spring, can the Dodgers absorb another injury to a core player?

And are the young players being given opportunities (Miguel Vargas, James Outman and Ryan Pepiot to begin, with Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller and Michael Busch lined up behind them) ready to contribute to a team with championship aspirations?

“I think that’s the thing – just a lot of unknowns,” outfielder Mookie Betts agreed. “We don’t really know. Those are things we can’t control a lot. You just have to let the story play out.”

The Dodgers have been very good at writing feel-good stories during the regular season. But they have had trouble with the final act, losing in the first round of the playoffs after franchise record-setting regular seasons twice in the past four seasons. If MLB’s tinkering with the postseason format has added randomness to October, the Dodgers have been the leading victims.

“It’s no secret that more teams in the playoffs helps MLB make money. That’s no secret,” Kershaw said. “Do I agree with rewarding teams that have mediocre seasons by making the playoffs? I don’t know. But that’s where we are with that.

“It’s whoever’s hot at the time.”

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The Washington Nationals of 2019, Atlanta Braves of 2021 and last year’s 87-win National League champion Philadelphia Phillies all attest to that.

Only five teams in MLB history have won as many games as last year’s 111-win Dodgers. Only one of those teams (the 114-win Yankees of 1998) also won the World Series. The previous four won an average of 16½ fewer games the next season. But two of them won World Series titles in the follow-up season.

Sixteen fewer wins would still make the Dodgers a 95-win team (a number they exceeded in four of the past five full seasons) – pretty dang good and certainly enough to get them into the postseason. But will it be enough to maintain the power position in their relationship with the headline-grabbing, big-spending Padres?

“What they’ve done is great,” Kershaw said. “They’ve improved their team. They’ve gotten big-name guys. They’ve got good players. They’ve extended some of their guys. What they’re doing is great. It’s great for the game and it’s great for players individually.

“I still think we can beat them.”

Winningest teams in MLB history (and their follow-up seasons):

2001 Seattle Mariners – 116-46 (Lost in ALCS)

2002 Mariners – 93-69 (Third in AL West)

1906 Chicago Cubs – 116-36 (Lost in the World Series)

1907 Cubs – 107-45 (Won World Series)

1998 New York Yankees – 114-48 (Won World Series)

1999 Yankees – 98-64 (Won World Series)

1954 Cleveland Indians – 111-43 (Lost World Series)

1955 Indians – 93-61 (Second in the American League)

2022 Dodgers – 111-51 (Lost in NL Division Series)

2023 Dodgers – ???

Orange County Register

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Dodgers no longer the (only) juggernaut in the NL West

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