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Horse racing notebook: Potente, other upsetters rattle Kentucky Derby rankings

March 12, 2026

Bob Baffert-trained Potente’s victory in his second career start in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday was an 8-1 surprise and yet right on form as only the latest upset win by a lightly raced 3-year-old to shake up contention for the May 2 Kentucky Derby.

Others to shoot up various rankings in recent weeks have been The Puma, 7-1 when he won the Tampa Bay Derby as a maiden in his third start; Class President, 8-1 when he won the Rebel in Arkansas in his third race; and Great White, 15-1 when he won the Battaglia in Kentucky in his third outing. Others recording significant wins at lower odds in the past month were Commandment, the Fountain of Youth winner in Florida in his fourth start; Iron Honor, the Gotham winner in New York in his second; Reagan’s Honor, a runaway allowance-level winner in Louisiana in his third; and Baffert’s Cherokee Nation, who ran a fast mile to break his maiden on his sixth try at Santa Anita.

No. 1 in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s 3-year-old rankings remains Paladin – the only double graded-stakes winner among Derby contenders – followed by Commandment and Nearly. But the top 10 this week includes five who weren’t in the top 20 at the beginning of February: Class President (4), Silent Tactic (5), Renegade (6), Potente (7) and The Puma (8).

Players in the new round of Kentucky Derby future wagering, open Friday through 3 p.m. Sunday, face the challenge of deciding which recent winners of Derby steppingstones are legit. The future wager’s morning line favors Paladin at 5-1, Commandment at 6-1 and Nearly at 8-1, but also has new top-dozen contenders in 10-1 Chief Wallabee, 15-1 Potente, 20-1 Class President, Iron Honor and Cherokee Nation, and 25-1 The Puma and Reagan’s Honor.

The race to America’s greatest race could settle down during the round of major preps that begins next week and includes the April 4 Santa Anita Derby. But don’t count on it.

• The second-to-last round of Kentucky Derby preps concludes with Saturday’s 1⅛-mile Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. In a field of 10, Baffert-trained Buetane (Flavien Prat riding) is a 5-2 favorite to get his first stakes win after chasing Ted Noffey at Saratoga, So Happy at Santa Anita and Silent Tactic at Oaklawn Park.

• Six-year-old Mrs. Astor (Antonio Fresu) goes for her eighth win in her past 11 starts for trainer Jonathan Thomas in Sunday’s Grade III Santa Ana Stakes, the weekend main event at Santa Anita.

• Last weekend’s main events at Santa Anita were low-rated by speed figure makers. British Isles’ Santa Anita Handicap victory – in 2:05.16 for 1¼ miles, the slowest clocking for a Big ’Cap on a fast track – received a Beyer figure of 90, which Brad Free of the Daily Racing Form said is the lowest for the race since Beyer figures were first published in the 1990s, and an Equibase figure of 107, second-worst in the 35 years of those numbers. Potente’s San Felipe got an 89 Beyer and a 94 from Equibase, both the lowest ever for that race.

• At Los Alamitos, Favorite Jesshawk ($8.40) and Martin Arriaga caught favorite Lethal Cowboy 123 to win Saturday’s Grade I Brad McKinzie Los Alamitos Winter Championship for quarter horses, giving the 4-year-old colt a Grade I or II victory in a third consecutive year. Doodah Cartel and Henry Reynoso Lopez posted the fastest qualifying time, 19.739 seconds for 400 yards, in Sunday’s trials for the Grade II El Primero Del Año Derby on March 29.

SANTA ANITA LEADERS

(Through Sunday)

Jockeys / Wins

Juan Hernandez / 34

Emisael Jaramillo / 31

Kazushi Kimura / 31

Armando Ayuso / 23

Umberto Rispoli / 15

Mirco Demuro / 15

Edwin Maldonado / 14

Hector Berrios / 14

Tiago Pereira / 14

Ricardo Gonzalez / 12

Trainers / Wins

Doug O’Neill / 24

Bob Baffert / 21

Mark Glatt / 19

George Papaprodromou / 18

Michael McCarthy / 18

Jeff Mullins / 16

Phil D’Amato / 12

Steve Knapp / 11

Leonard Powell / 9

Bob Hess Jr. / 7

UPCOMING STAKES

SANTA ANITA

Saturday

• $100,000, Grade III San Simeon Stakes, 4-year-olds and up, about 6½ furlongs on turf

Sunday

• $100,000, Grade III Santa Ana Stakes, fillies and mares, 4 and up, 1¼ miles on turf

Orange County Register

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Horse racing notebook: Potente, other upsetters rattle Kentucky Derby rankings

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