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Douglas Schoen: The week that may have shaken up the gubernatorial race

April 10, 2026

A number of developments in California’s gubernatorial race underscore that with less than a month until early primary voting begins, the race is wide open and that an opportunity exists for a candidate to break through.

Which candidate that is remains unknown.

Yet, with the leading candidates polling so close together, any of them — whether Tom Steyer, whose massive spending hasn’t yet made the dent he’s hoped, or San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan with his elite backing failing to boost him in the polls — the race is truly up for grabs.

Indeed, on Monday the biggest shoe dropped, as President Donald Trump endorsed Republican candidate and former Fox News host Steve Hilton.

That may backfire on California Republicans, who were potentially looking at the previously unimaginable scenario of an all-GOP general election in the country’s biggest blue state.

In fact, Politico reported that Trump’s endorsement came against the wishes of some Golden State Republicans who argued that “the party’s best, if narrow, shot at the governor’s mansion depended on him staying out of the contest in this heavily Democratic state.”

Hilton had, according to reports, hoped to “avoid nationalizing the election” due to Trump’s overwhelming unpopularity in California, where he has just a 28% approval, per Yahoo News.

Trump’s intervention was not the only potentially election-shaking news.

Rep. Eric Swalwell, who polls consistently put as one of the leading candidates on the Democratic side, must now deal with accusations of “inappropriate behavior with female staffers.”

It should go without saying that these are only allegations, which have not yet been proven.

Micah Beasley, a spokesperson for Swalwell, said “This false, outrageous rumor is being spread 27 days before an election begins by flailing opponents who have sadly teamed up with MAGA conspiracy theorists because they know Eric Swalwell is the frontrunner.”

According to Cheyene Hunt, a former staffer turned political influencer who first accused Swalwell of “making sexual advances with women on his staff,” multiple other women have contacted her with their own stories of Swalwell’s misconduct towards them.

Moreover, one Democratic strategist “told Democrats to take the allegations ‘seriously’” according to Fox News.

That strategist – Bhavik Lathia – posted on X concerning the allegations. He wrote, “This is real. Take it seriously. Eric Swalwell cannot be our nominee. There is going to be a lot more coming out soon…stay tuned.”

However, with less than one month until early voting begins, it is clear that this is anyone’s race.

In the most recent poll, conducted by UC Berkeley, the three were effectively tied, with Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter (13% each) holding a small lead over Steyer (10%), although all three trailed the two Republicans, Hilton (17%) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (16%).

That being said, the events of the past week mean that as things currently stand, three of the five leading candidates have viability concerns.

For Hilton, who was always going to be fighting an uphill battle and whose best shot depended on an all-GOP general election, Trump’s endorsement will help him advance, but not win.

And for both Swalwell and Katie Porter, there are legitimate questions regarding their fitness for office.

Swalwell has long been attacked for his association with a suspected Chinese spy, Christine Fang. And while he was cleared of any wrongdoing, opponents may point to these latest controversies as proof that the Congressman is not fit for the governor’s mansion.

For her part, Porter had been leading the contest through last summer, and after former VP Kamala Harris declined to run, Porter was considered the true frontrunner.

But the former Congresswoman has never fully recovered from a pair of her own controversies: an interview where she berated a reporter and then resurfaced videos showing Porter yelling expletives at staffers.

To that end, the question must now be asked whether any of the remaining Democrats can take advantage of the controversies surrounding Swalwell and Porter.

Among the contenders, if any candidate can surpass those two, it would be Tom Steyer.

The billionaire and former presidential candidate has unlimited resources and has found a lane with his left-wing populism that is currently popular among Democrats.

Further, as the Berkeley poll shows, he is virtually tied with Swalwell and Porter, and the only other Democrat in double digits.

Just a few weeks ago, Matt Mahan may have been considered the dark horse outsider capable of pulling off an upset.

Mahan, a more centrist Democrat, had deep-pocketed donors and many thought there would be room for him to win support among more moderate Democrats and Independents.

And yet, the last few weeks have exposed Mahan’s viability issues. He failed to gain traction in the polls, resulting in his top strategist stepping down, and a bizarre fundraising drive that the New York Times said “reflects the sense of desperation around the once promising candidate.”

Ultimately, the full impact of these developments may take weeks to play out, but they have shaken up the contest, and undoubtedly underscore just how wide open the race to lead California is.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.

Orange County Register

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Douglas Schoen: The week that may have shaken up the gubernatorial race

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