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Betting on war and terrorism should be illegal, California lawmakers say

March 13, 2026

Just before the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a strike by the U.S. and Israel in late February, an account placed a bet on a prediction market site.

That account, with the name “Magamyman,” made more than $553,000 betting that Khamenei would be out of power on the prediction site Polymarket. The account had reportedly often bet on U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran, according to USA Today, and another bet estimating the U.S. would strike Iran by the end of February raked in more than $431,000.

And then there was an anonymous trader in January, who made more than $400,000 after wagering that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be out of power. The bets were made just hours before the nighttime raid that led to the U.S. capture of Maduro.

While there are differing schools of thought on whether prediction markets — which allow users to wager on the outcome of events, such as the weather or a game — in general should be allowed to operate, a pair of California lawmakers wants to ban explicitly betting on death, terrorism and war.

From Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, and U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff, a new bill seeks to prohibit entities registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission from listing contracts that involve, relate to or reference assassination, an individual’s death, terrorism or war. (The CFTC regulates prediction markets, and that federal oversight allows them to operate in every state, even those where gambling is illegal.)

“It seems ridiculous to me that you could have a bet, whether in a prediction market or any other venue, that would explicitly involve an assassination or war or some sort of act of terrorism or anything that would involve death,” Levin said.

“Betting on war and death creates an environment in which insiders can profit off of classified information, our national security is jeopardized and violence is encouraged,” said Schiff. “There is no justification for gambling on lives, or public benefit to be derived by such a market.”

Prediction markets have faced questions and criticisms about what it allows to be wagered, CNBC recently reported.

Polymarket recently removed markets that allowed users to wager on nuclear detonations, and Kalshi issued refunds on markets related to the ousting of Khamenei, noting it does not allow markets “directly tied to deaths,” according to CNBC.

But Levin and Schiff pointed to the CFTC and its authority to regulate prediction markets.

“I’m really concerned that they’re not going to do what’s necessary to put the guardrails up,” Levin said, referencing not only wagering on war and death, but also preventing

Schiff said regulators have been “turning a blind eye,” letting prediction markets “rapidly become the Wild West.”

“As the CFTC seeks to rewrite the rules of the road, Congress must make clear that these death bets are unequivocally prohibited, and this bill would do just that,” said Schiff.

The CFTC on Thursday said it was seeking public comment on amending or issuing new rules for prediction markets, including the types of events that could be deemed “contrary to the public interest,” preventing them from being wagered.

CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig called it “an important step in the Commission’s continued effort to promote responsible innovation in our derivatives markets.”

A spokesperson for the federal agency did not respond to a request for comment.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has largely backed prediction market operators. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, has invested in Polymarket through his venture capital firm and is a strategic advisor for Kalshi.

The bill has been dubbed the DEATH BETS Act, an admittedly lengthy acronym that stands for Discouraging Exploitative Assassination, Tragedy, and Harm Betting in Event Trading Systems, Levin said. But he hopes it is memorable enough for people to grasp the gravity of what it’s trying to accomplish, he said.

“Betting on war and death should be illegal,” Levin said. “While federal law prohibits prediction market contracts on terrorism, war and assassination, there are still gaping holes that allow traders to profit off death,” Levin said. “The result is a system with nothing standing between a prediction market and a contract that lets someone make money off the outbreak of war or the deaths of American service members.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Orange County Register

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Betting on war and terrorism should be illegal, California lawmakers say

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