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Douglas Schoen: Becerra may be better for California than Steyer or Porter

May 8, 2026

Polls may not yet reflect it, but this week’s gubernatorial debates have revealed the emergence of a new front runner in the race to replace Gov. Newsom: Xavier Becerra.

Indeed, going into Tuesday’s debate, the former Health and Human Services Secretary had seen an uptick in his polling, putting him squarely behind Tom Steyer as the number two Democrat in the crowded field.

On stage, it was clear that other contenders understood that. Becerra drew, by far, the most attacks, underscoring the priority other candidates put on short-circuiting his rise.

To his credit, Becerra did not wilt under the pressure.

In response to Steyer’s accusation that he’s “in bed with oil companies,” Becerra took aim at Steyer’s past investments in fossil fuel companies, saying, “the last thing we need is someone who makes riches from investing in oil companies and then accuses everyone else of doing the wrong thing.”

To be sure, the race remains wide open, even as ballots have already gone out.

Overall, it increasingly appears clear that at least one spot in the top-two primary will go to one of the two Republicans, Steve Hilton or Chad Bianco, and most likely the former.

Hilton, who has the endorsement of President Trump, continues to lead in the polls, including a recent KGTV survey showing Hilton (20%), followed by Steyer (18%), Bianco (12%), and Becerra (10%).

Those findings line up with Emerson polling, showing Hilton (17%) leading Steyer and fellow Republican Chad Bianco (14% apiece), with Becerra and Katie Porter tied for third at 10% each.

However, looking at past polls emphasizes Becerra’s growing strength, particularly following Eric Swalwell’s withdrawal.

In early April – just before Swalwell dropped out – KGTV conducted an identical poll showing Becerra at 4%, pointing to a 6-point increase.

Emerson polling suggests a similar rise.

Polling from March shows Becerra with just 3% of the vote, indicating a 7-point increase for Becerra between then and Emerson’s most recent survey, conducted right after Swalwell withdrew.

Moreover, as I’ve alluded to previously in these pages, Becerra’s support overlaps with another candidate, Antonio Villaraigosa, who is currently polling at 4%. Should Villaraigosa supporters determine that Becerra is more viable and shift their vote, Becerra would be virtually tied with Steyer.

Outside of polls, there are also signs that Becerra is gaining momentum.

Within one week, Politico ran two articles related to the race.

The first compares Becerra’s rise to former President Joe Biden’s during the 2020 primaries.

It describes Becerra as “languishing for months before shooting to the top tier” and “surpassing flashier, more progressive opponents pledging to upend the status quo” – a clear reference to Steyer and Porter.

The article goes on to declare that Becerra “has done it with overlapping appeal, promising stability brought by decades in governance…”

The second article may be even more revealing in this time where progressives are increasingly dominating the Democratic Party.

Titled “Becerra’s surge draws progressive backlash in California’s governor’s race” the article notes that “Becerra has surged to the front of California’s wide-open governor’s race” which has drawn “a barrage of attacks from progressives.”

It then says that progressive activists are desperately trying to undercut Becerra, attacking him on his record in Congress and his “moderate” positions.

Likewise, one moment during Tuesday’s debate offered a subtle hint of Becerra’s appeal: on the proposed billionaires tax – which Becerra has opposed for similar reasons to Newsom – all of the other candidates seemed to move closer to his position than Steyer’s.

In other words, it would appear that other candidates have recognized that moving closer to Becerra’s more moderate positions may help them, even in deep-blue California.

Becerra’s chief opponent, Tom Steyer, who has become a champion of the progressive class, has taken note.

In addition to the dust-up over fossil fuels, Steyer’s spokesman has slammed Becerra for “clearly not [being] a progressive,” while progressives aligned with Steyer have publicly attempted to paint Becerra as in bed with big corporations.

Taken together, these developments suggest that Becerra is not only gaining in strength, but that Democrats’ far-left flank is increasingly worried that he could, in fact, win.

Progressive objections are curious, given that Becerra has been front and center opposing Trump, a key demand.

As Attorney General of California, Becerra sued the first Trump administration over 100 times, confronting the White House on issues ranging from vehicle emission standards to workers’ rights, and the Affordable Care Act.

Contrary to the opposition from the progressive left, it’s possible that Becerra is better for California than either Steyer or Porter.

To that end, Becerra’s position as a – relative – moderate could temper harmful progressive policies such as the wealth tax, should he be able to build on this recent success and overtake Steyer.

It would also be a hit to progressives’ hopes of driving the entire Democratic Party further to the left, a gift to Democrats who recognize that moderate candidates and policies are the party’s path to retake national power in 2028.

Ultimately, while it remains anyone’s guess which two candidates will advance from this wide open race, it would be a tremendous mistake to overlook Xavier Becerra’s late-inning rise.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.

Orange County Register

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Douglas Schoen: Becerra may be better for California than Steyer or Porter

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