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John Seiler: An Irvine tax increase does not compute

April 27, 2026

Politicians can come up with any reason for a tax increase. But in Orange County, the city with the least reason for raising taxes is Irvine. It’s blessed with high-tech companies that fill city coffers. And, as a newer city, it has relatively low legacy costs.

Yet the City Council will consider looking at raising taxes to close an expected $6 million budget deficit for the 2025-2026 fiscal year, which ends on June 30. That could balloon to $47 million total for the next five years.

It will hold a Special City Council Meeting at 2 p.m. on May 5 to discuss the tax increase. The event will be broadcast on Cox Communications Channel 30, AT&T U-Verse Channel 99 and the city’s YouTube channel.

The Voice of OC reported Mayor Larry Agran asked City Manager Sean Crumby to “look at hiring a polling firm to ask residents about their feelings on a tax increase without consulting other City Council members.” Speaking as an Irvine resident, the city should save however much it’ll cost to run a poll and know our answer: No.

“There should never have been an initiation for any sort of polling and taxes at all, but there was,” Vice Mayor James Mai, who represents District 3, told me. City staff “didn’t sign the contract for the poll, but they contacted all the polling firms.” Irvine does not have a strong-mayor system, such as Los Angeles. Instead, although Agran was elected by all Irvine voters as council presider, he has the same authority as the other six council members.

Mai said such a serious discussion about taxes should occur only “at a point that there’s no other option.” Layoffs should be the first option. Mai earlier called for a hiring freeze. To me, he said, “I’ve already confirmed there is a hiring freeze and they just never verbalized it.” Mai also pointed out the council, at its April 14 meeting, rejected a forensic audit of the budget.

The city has plenty of time to figure out a solution because it enjoys reserves of $135 million. And cuts certainly can be made. Mai pointed out over the past five years, full-time staff grew from 856 to 1,103, or 28.9%. But the city’s population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s official numbers, rose from 307,682 in 2020 to 318,683 in 2024, or just 3.58% in four years (2025 is not yet available).

The Irvine Watchdog website reported the council in May 2021 voted to double each member’s $80,000 discretionary budget to fund part-time staff and gave themselves “an additional roughly $100,000 for their personal part-time salaries, office supplies, city travel and trainings.” That’s an obvious first area to cut.

The really good news is Irvine ranked No. 1 for fiscal soundness on former state Sen. John Moorlach’s May 6, 2025 ranking of 34 Orange County cities. Based on the city’s 2024 Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, its unrestricted net position, the key number, was a positive $857 million, or $2,721 per capita, per his calculation. By contrast, neighbor Santa Ana’s UNP was a shockingly negative $548 million, or $1,764 owed per capita, worst in the county.

And note, Santa Ana’s own 1.5-cent Measure X sales tax increase from 2018 sure didn’t help it dig out of that hole. In fact, its 2018 ACFR showed a UNP of negative $518 million. That is, it got $30 million worse by 2025, seven years after the tax increase. Good fiscal management is key and tax hikes are no guarantee of good fiscal management.

I’ll be at the council meeting and might walk to it. Along with other residents, I’ve been paying close to $6 a gallon for gas, up $1.30 since Feb. 28, when the Iran War began. And an April 16 survey by the California Farm Bureau found 70% of farmers said “fertilizer prices are too high to purchase everything they need this year.” That means higher food prices. Irvine residents are already dealing with higher costs-of-living.

By the time a potential tax increase could hit the Nov. 3 ballot, few voters will want to squeeze family budgets even more. A tax increase? Don’t even think about it.

John Seiler is on the SCNG Editorial Board

Orange County Register

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John Seiler: An Irvine tax increase does not compute

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