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Santa Anita Derby finish could hinge on one horse’s start

April 3, 2026

ARCADIA — With at least five of its seven horses looking good enough to win, the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday could be a battle for every step of the 1⅛ miles.

Or it could be decided at the start.

The field of 3-year-olds lines up like this for the Grade I race: 1. Cherokee Nation, 5-2 on the morning line, Florent Geroux riding; 2. Potente, 2-1 favorite, Juan Hernandez; 3. Vitruvian Man, 15-1, Antonio Fresu; 4. Robusta, 8-1, Emisael Jaramillo; 5. So Happy, 7-2, Mike Smith; 6. Start the Ride, 30-1, Armando Ayuso; and 7. Intrepido, 7-2, Hector Berrios.

It’s the biggest race of the Santa Anita Classic Meet that ends Sunday, and top finishers will divide a $500,000 purse and earn qualifying points for the May 2 Kentucky Derby.

For the crowd of 30,000-plus expected at the track and those viewing on NBC, the horse to watch early in the race and maybe throughout is Cherokee Nation, who along with Potente is trying to give trainer Bob Baffert his ninth victory in the Santa Anita Derby.

“Cherokee Nation’s problem in the past was the (starting) gate,” Baffert said Thursday morning at Santa Anita. “He broke great last time. … He needs to repeat that.”

Cherokee Nation, a son of Not This Time who cost an ownership group headed by SF Racing $1.15 million at a yearling auction, lost the first five races of his career, including fifth-place finishes in a pair of Kentucky Derby steppingstones. The five defeats, under three different jockeys, were caused in part by slow starts and early traffic.

But in a return to the maiden level in late February, with Santa Anita leading jockey Jaramillo aboard, Cherokee Nation broke cleanly and put away the early leader on the turn for home on his way to winning by 10 lengths. The time (1:34.50) was the fastest since 2016 for 1 mile on the Santa Anita main track, and the Beyer speed figure (100) was the highest by a 3-year-old to that point in 2026.

Had Cherokee Nation simply learned his lessons and become a proficient gate horse, or could he regress Saturday when he starts from the sometimes-tricky inside post position, faces tougher competition than he did in that victory, and doesn’t have Jaramillo on his back? The answer could be the key to the race.

“They’re two really nice horses,” Baffert said of Cherokee Nation and Potente. “(But) I think it’s one of the toughest (Santa Anita) Derbies.”

It’s likely to be the first Santa Anita Derby since 2017 in which the favorite’s odds are higher than even money.

Potente, a $2.4 million son of Into Mischief, is the horse to beat after winning his first two races, although he has yet to earn an impressive speed figure.

Robusta, who has Santa Anita meet-leading jockey Jaramillo and trainer Doug O’Neill, came within a head of beating Potente in the San Felipe Stakes in March, a much-improved effort at 67-1 odds with the addition of blinkers.

So Happy fought for the early lead in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe before slipping to third. Distance remains a question for the winner of the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes. But none of the Santa Anita Derby runners has tried 1⅛ miles, let alone the Kentucky Derby’s 1¼ miles.

“He pressed a good horse (favorite Brant, who faded to fifth) on the quickest kind of pace, and really we’ve just got to see how he improves in the second time around two turns,” trainer Mark Glatt said.

Intrepido is 0 for 2 since a breakthrough win in the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah Stakes in October. But supporters can make excuses for his slow-starting fifth-place finish in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and his close second to since-sidelined Plutarch in the 1-mile Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February.

“The horse (Plutarch) came in on us (in the stretch),” said Jeff Mullins, Intrepido’s three-time Santa Anita Derby-winning trainer. Mullins said he was “a little upset” his jockey didn’t claim foul.

Mullins’ discussion of the competition Saturday started with Cherokee Nation.

“If he runs back to that race, he’s going to be tough,” Mullins said.

Part of the last Saturday of major Kentucky Derby qualifying races, the Santa Anita Derby awards 100, 50, 25, 15 and 10 points to top finishers.

A horse usually needs a total of 40 or higher to get in, and Potente (50) already got there by winning the San Felipe Stakes. Robusta (25) has to finish at least fourth Saturday, Intrepido (23) and So Happy (15) at least third, Cherokee Nation (3) and the others at least second. In practice, a trainer usually needs to see a first- or second-place finish in the final prep to want to go to Churchill Downs.

The Santa Anita Derby is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. as the 10th race on a 12-race card starting at noon.

Four other stakes include the Grade II Santa Anita Oaks, with Michael McCarthy-trained Meaning and Brooklyn Blonde and Baffert’s Forced Entry and French Blue heading a field of seven trying to earn places in the May 1 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.

The Santa Anita Derby picks here: 1. Cherokee Nation, 2. Potente, 3. Intrepido, 4. So Happy

Orange County Register

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Santa Anita Derby finish could hinge on one horse’s start

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