Telepeer

The progressive playbook may have finally run its course in California

June 4, 2026

The results of Tuesday’s California primaries sent a clear message to the state’s left flank, whether they were ready to hear it or not: voters are taking a harder look at the governing philosophy that has shaped California politics for much of the past decade, and it’s clear they don’t like what they see.

Indeed, in one of the bluest states in the country, two Republicans – mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt and gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton – are likely to make their way to the general election come November.

While both races are still too close to call as of early Thursday morning, the sole fact that two Trump-endorsed candidates are leading their Democratic challengers is proof enough that many Californians are quite dissatisfied with the state’s political establishment and are looking for a different approach – and not a progressive one.

In Los Angeles, with results still being counted, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass has pulled only about one-third of the vote so far (35%), while another two-thirds opted for someone else. In a city where Democrats outnumber Republicans by a staggering margin, Bass’ failure to consolidate more support suggests her tenure has fallen short on the issues that matter most.

Specifically, the city’s most recent crisis, the Palisades fire in January of last year, exposed longstanding weaknesses in emergency preparedness, coordination, and recovery under Bass’ leadership.

For many Angelenos, the devastating impact of the fires still lingers, and it has undoubtedly weighed on voters’ minds as they headed to the ballot box earlier this week.

For Pratt – the reality television personality who has been outspoken about Bass’ recovery response, or lack thereof – the frustration surrounding the city’s handling of the fires created a clear opening to position himself as an outsider alternative to a political establishment many voters view as ineffective.

And according to the polls, it’s working.

Currently, Pratt leads Councilmember Nithya Raman, a progressive Democrat, by about 7 points (30% to 23%), although the Associated Press has only projected Bass to move onto the general election thus far.

Nonetheless, the fact that Pratt is holding a meaningful lead over Raman speaks for itself: Angelenos, given the choice between a progressive Democrat and an outsider with no political experience, are choosing the latter.

To be sure, that isn’t an endorsement of Pratt so much as it is a rejection of the brand politicians like Bass and Raman represent. When a city as blue as Los Angeles would rather roll the dice on a television star than send another progressive to City Hall, the message is hard to misread.

This voter dissatisfaction, however, does not exist in a vacuum. What is happening in Los Angeles is not isolated; rather, it is part of a broader pattern that is simultaneously playing out across the Golden State.

In the race for governor, although also still too early to call, Hilton – a British-born conservative political commentator – narrowly leads the field with roughly 28% of the vote, ahead of Democrats Xavier Becerra (25%) and Tom Steyer (20%), according to NBC News.

Again, the idea that a Republican is atop the leaderboard in a state where Democrats hold a nearly five-million voter advantage is, by any measure, a remarkable result – and a direct indictment of the progressive governing model that has defined California for the better part of a decade.

That said, it’s critical to note that the Democratic vote is fractured across a particularly crowded field: Becerra, Steyer, and several other contenders are all drawing from the same left-leaning pool, while Hilton is able to consolidate Republican support with only one other viable Republican candidate, Chad Bianco, though he sits at just 11%.

Yet, that doesn’t make the result any less telling. Even with a split field, a set of Republicans leading in California’s biggest races speaks to something deeper, and for the Democratic Party, frankly something more concerning.

Taken together, the two primaries tell the same story: that years of one-party governance have quietly eroded the support that Democrats in this state have long taken for granted.

To be clear, Democrats remain the favorite to win both races in November, as party registration alone gives them an advantage impossible to ignore. But registration must not be mistaken for enthusiasm, and these results have introduced something that Golden State Democrats are not used to: doubt about the durability of one-party rule.

And with the midterms on the horizon and 2028 already beginning to take shape, Democrats would be wise to treat Tuesday’s results not as a California-specific problem, but as a warning sign.

Voters are not asking for an uber-progressive revolution – they are asking to be governed well.

If the broader Democratic Party cannot hear that message coming out of its own stronghold, it is unlikely to hear it anywhere else until it’s too late.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.

Orange County Register

News Details

The progressive playbook may have finally run its course in California

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

News

CONTACT INFO

QUICK LINKS

SERVICES

CURRENT NEWS