Telepeer

Douglas Schoen: With Swalwell’s downfall, it’s Steyer’s race to lose

April 17, 2026

The downfall of Eric Swalwell sent shockwaves through national politics, but nowhere did it hit harder than in California’s gubernatorial race.

Swalwell had been considered a frontrunner, and his withdrawal leaves a sizable vacuum atop the crowded race.

Critically, it’s also increasingly clear that one candidate in particular will benefit: Tom Steyer.

Indeed, immediately prior to the release of multiple allegations of sexual harassment and assault, the now-former Congressman led the field and was projected to advance to the general election, according to polling from PPIC.

With nearly one-fifth of the vote (18%), Swalwell was one point ahead of Republican Steve Hilton and had a 4-point lead over the next two Democrats, Katie Porter and Tom Steyer.

However, in polling conducted during the scandal’s revelation – but before he withdrew – Swalwell’s support dropped to 9%, per KGTV.

Underscoring how this benefits Steyer, the billionaire and former presidential candidate shot up to 21% in the KGTV survey, while Porter (8%) seemingly attracted no former Swalwell supporters.

Neither did the other Democrats in the race, all of whom have been unable to get out of the low single digits in polls.

Moreover, Emerson polling – conducted after Swalwell dropped out – largely confirms that Steyer, rather than Porter, is the most likely recipient of former Swalwell voters.

Whereas Steyer (14%) leads the Democrats and would be projected to face Hilton (17%), Porter’s support (10%) remains flat.

Overall, both the KGTV and Emerson surveys project that Hilton and Steyer will advance, an increasingly probable result.

To that end, Swalwell’s decision sets up two possible scenarios.

First, and most probable, is that Steyer gains the majority of Swalwell voters and advances to the runoff, where he’d likely face Hilton, and almost certainly win.

The second scenario which had troubled Democrats earlier this Spring is that the Democratic candidates continue splitting the vote, allowing Hilton and Republican Chad Bianco to advance.

In no uncertain terms, if that were to occur, it would be a political upset without parallel in modern American history, given California’s deep-blue leanings.

Former Senator Barbara Boxer has suggested the chances of this occurring are roughly 20%, which may not sound high, but is remarkable for a Democratic bastion like California.

At the same time, this latest shakeup in the race seemingly validates Steyer’s decision to spend massively in order to boost himself.

Having poured over $100 million of his own money into his campaign, Steyer has risen from 1% in the polls to double digits and now a potential leading spot.

As Politico described, “Steyer is dominating the airwaves, with a rotation of ads so heavy he is nearly omnipresent.” And, as a populist outsider running at a time when similar candidates are finding success, Steyer seems well-positioned to capitalize on that trend.

Further, Steyer has spent considerable time and effort in making inroads with powerful progressive groups.

After withdrawing their endorsement of Swalwell, the California Teacher’s Association put its support behind Steyer, a sure blow to Porter, who has also sought to win the support of unions.

There may be similar stories in the days ahead. According to Politico, major labor groups like CTA and SEIU had “strongly considered endorsing Steyer before choosing Swalwell,” endorsements which have subsequently been retracted.

To be sure, Porter’s own record of past controversies is likely a factor in preventing her from absorbing a significant share of former Swalwell backers.

Last fall, Porter went viral for clashing with a journalist, and then days later, videos emerged of her berating staffers. On the heels of the Swalwell controversy, candidates’ temperament will be under the microscope, and Porter’s history of issues may loom large.

Additionally, President Donald Trump has inserted himself into the race, blasting Steyer on Truth Social.

In a race where ability to stand up to Trump is a much desired quality – 58% of voters want a governor who can do so per KGTV – Trump’s targeting of Steyer will likely boost the latter.

Taken together, this race is shaping up to be Steyer’s to lose.

Having campaigned as a progressive who supports raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations, Steyer has portrayed himself as further to the left than current Governor Newsom, and would likely govern as such.

That being said, his recent calls to jail ICE agents – whom he called a “violent extremist group” – would deepen California’s strained relationship with the Trump administration, and may alienate moderate voters who want ICE restrained without resorting to “defund the police” type language.

Likewise, the billionaire has come under fire from fellow Democrats over past investments in private prisons, which he’s admitted but said it was a “mistake.”

Nonetheless, in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 2:1 and the economy (41%) along with housing affordability (20%) are voters’ top concerns, Steyer’s campaign focus on building one million houses and addressing affordability likely resonate.

Ultimately, in the words of the New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher, following this latest scandal, the race has become a “series of unfortunate events” for Democrats.

Now, the party’s best chance for avoiding an unprecedented all-GOP general election may rest with a serial candidate who has never won an election and who would possibly take California further to the political left than even Newsom.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.

Orange County Register

News Details

Douglas Schoen: With Swalwell’s downfall, it’s Steyer’s race to lose

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

News

CONTACT INFO

QUICK LINKS

SERVICES

CURRENT NEWS