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Despite a war and $6 gas, California confidence rises in May

May 30, 2026

California consumers are feeling a little more positive about their finances, possibly because they hope the war with Iran and expensive gasoline will end soon.

My trusty spreadsheet looked at the May tally of consumer confidence from the Conference Board for California, seven other states and the nation. This optimism index, derived from public surveys, showed California’s statewide confidence rising 4% in May.

Still, this measure of consumer confidence is 2% lower than it was in January before the war. It is also 7% below the average optimism score since 2007.

Keep in mind that when consumers are nervous, they might delay certain purchases, which can slow down the overall economy.

California shoppers have good reason to worry about some confusing big-picture issues. The Trump administration’s “America First” economic approach clashes with California’s more global outlook. There’s also uncertainty about who will be the state’s next governor.

On a more personal level, the war boosted gas prices past $6 a gallon and spiked inflation worries. Still, California’s job market might be stronger than in other parts of the country.

Contemplate these recent good vibes this way. If you look at three-month averages, California’s confidence is up 7% over the past year.

That’s the biggest increase since March 2022, when the economy was recovering from pandemic restrictions.

But if you look closer at the confidence index, you can see that shoppers are still worried about what lies ahead.

California’s present situation index, which measures how people feel about current conditions, rose 6% in May. That puts it flat with January’s pre-war reading and 4% above the long-term average.

What worries Californians most is what comes next.

The expectations index, which measures how consumers feel about the future, rose 2% in May. Still, that’s 3% below pre-war levels and 15% below the average.

In May, people across the country were a little more worried than those in California.

The U.S. consumer confidence index dropped 1% in May, but it’s still 5% higher than before the war and 1% above the average since 2007.

Americans’ view of current conditions dropped 3% in May, unchanged since before the war and 14% above the average. Expectations for the future rose 1% in May to 11% above pre-war levels, but are still 10% below the average.

Stately stats

Confidence dropped in six of the seven other states tracked by the Conference Board. Here is how they ranked by one-month change:

– Pennsylvania: Off 12% in May to a level that’s 8% below the pre-war level of January and 2% below the 19-year average.

– Ohio: Off 6% in May versus 9% below pre-war and 4% below average.

– Texas: Off 3% in May versus 1% above pre-war and 9% below average.

– New York: Off 1% in May versus 20% above pre-war and 36% above average.

– Florida: Off 1% in May versus 4% above pre-war and 16% above average.

– Illinois: Off 1% in May versus 4% below pre-war and 15% above average.

– Michigan: Up 19% in May versus 9% below pre-war and 4% above average.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com.

Orange County Register

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Despite a war and $6 gas, California confidence rises in May

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