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Have Californians suddenly become economic optimists?

April 3, 2026

A yardstick of California consumer confidence jumped in March to its second-highest level of Donald Trump’s second presidency, despite soaring gasoline prices driven by the war in Iran.

My trusty spreadsheet looked at the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for the state and found a 19% increase in March from February. That placed statewide optimism 6% above the average score for a benchmark that dates to 2007.

And since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, this index was only higher in December.

The new buoyancy is also evident in the two slices within this Golden State index. The metric tracks shopper psyche through public polling conducted throughout the middle of the month.

California’s “present situation” index — a view of current conditions — jumped 19% in March to 17% above average.

Meanwhile, the statewide “expectations” index — measuring economic outlooks — rose 18% in March to a level only 1% below average. It’s the California shoppers’ best view of what’s next for the economy since November 2024, just after Trump was elected.

It’s not just the war that makes the March move seem surprising.

The Trump administration’s domestically focused policies stand in stark contrast to California’s more globally oriented philosophies.

In addition, there’s been little encouraging economic news of late — statewide or nationally — that would boost economic optimism.

Anxious nation

The rosy California thinking for the month contrasts with a somewhat anxious nation.

Nationally, consumer confidence rose by 1% in March to a level that’s a slim 0.1% below its 19-year average. The U.S. present situation index was up 4% in March to 16% above average.

However, some wartime jitters were evident in the 2% dip in expectations in March, to 14% below average.

Additionally, only two of the seven other states tracked by the Conference Board aligned with California’s upbeat March sentiment.

Michigan confidence was up 19% to a level that’s 24% above average. And Texas rose 8% to 0.3% above average.

Yet Pennsylvania had March’s biggest dip, off 14% in the month to 10% below average.

Ohio fell 12% to 5% above average. Florida was off 10% to 12% above average. New York was down 7% to 9% above average. And Illinois dipped 4% to 0.5% above average.

Divided sentiment

Have Californians suddenly become economic optimists?

If you look at 2026’s first three months, perhaps not. California’s average confidence in the first quarter is 3% below its 19-year average. That’s in line with the nation’s 1% below-average optimism at the start of 2026.

But the other states, using this same math, show confidence as a divided sentiment.

Optimism was above average in Florida (16%), Michigan (15%), New York (13%), Illinois (8%), Ohio (9%), and Pennsylvania (1%) in 2026’s first three months.

But in Texas, confidence in early 2026 ran 6% below the historical norm.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com

Orange County Register

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Have Californians suddenly become economic optimists?

Anxious nation

Divided sentiment

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