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Rep. Michelle Steel’s race with Democrat Derek Tran in CA-45 shifts to ‘Republican toss up’

September 6, 2024

In the closely watched race in California’s 45th congressional district, election forecasts have begun to swing toward being more favorable for Democrats.

Election analyst Cook Political Report today changed its rating of the race from “lean Republican” to “Republican toss up.” Democrat Derek Tran, an attorney, is vying to unseat two-term incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Seal Beach, to become the first Vietnamese American elected to represent Orange County’s Little Saigon in Congress.

“Democrats now believe they have a strong nominee in Derek Tran, a Vietnamese American attorney who could make inroads with typically Republican-leaning voters in Little Saigon,” Cook Political Report’s Erin Covey wrote in her analysis of the race.

Covey also pointed out that Tran, a first-time candidate, outraised Steel in the second quarter. In the period that covered April to June, Tran reported his best fundraising quarter yet, raising $1.3 million to Steel’s $1.1 million. As of June 30, Steel still maintains a cash lead.

Last week, Inside Elections, a newsletter that provides campaign analysis, also recently changed its rating of the race from “lean Republican” to “tilt Republican.”

Both rating changes come as the race in the 45th has grown increasingly more volatile in recent weeks. Steel’s campaign recently accused Tran of misleading voters about his Vietnamese language proficiency and also criticized him for his previous work as an attorney defending a client accused of sexual assault.

CA-45 is a majority-minority district where the largest Vietnamese community outside of Vietnam resides. The district also picks up Cerritos and Artesia in Los Angeles County, both where Asian residents make up the largest racial group.

“For some reason after two cycles of being proven wrong, inside the Beltway prognosticators still give precedence to (the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s) spin over Michelle winning every cycle — this year, they are falling for Democrats’ nonsense that someone who is a serial liar and represented an alleged rapist is the ticket to beating Michelle — they were wrong before, and they are wrong now,” said Lance Trover, Steel’s spokesperson.

DCCC spokesperson Dan Gottlieb said “the ground has completely shifted beneath Michelle Steel’s feet in California’s 45th, and Republicans are clearly panicked as their desperate attacks continue to fall flat.”

On Friday, Cook Political Report also shifted five more races toward Democrats and two toward Republicans.

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Orange County Register

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Rep. Michelle Steel’s race with Democrat Derek Tran in CA-45 shifts to ‘Republican toss up’

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