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Horse racing column: 20 horses to watch as Kentucky Derby season begins

January 17, 2025

A little over 100 days before the Kentucky Derby, buildup to the May 3 classic intensifies this week for horses and horseplayers.

The Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds racetrack in New Orleans on Saturday begins a round of Derby steppingstones with stepped-up importance, presenting 1 1/16-mile tests and 42 qualifying points to top-five finishers.

The first official Derby future wagering of the year, Friday through Sunday, allows bettors to lock in tantalizing odds on any of 39 individual 3-year-olds. There’s also an “all others” option that’s listed at 5-2 on the morning line.

It’s a good time to debut this column’s ranking of 20 horses who, at a very early stage, look like Derby contenders worth following.

1. East Avenue (15-1 on the future-wager morning line): The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile favorite was eliminated at the break at Del Mar but is training for a restart in Louisiana.

2. Barnes (10-1): Bob Baffert’s brilliant San Vicente Stakes winner, a $3.2 million auction buy, is the new leader of the California class.

3. Citizen Bull (20-1): This Baffert trainee won the Juvenile and is all but sure to be named 2-year-old champion for 2024 later this month.

4. Rodriguez (20-1): Another Baffert colt. His maiden romp at Santa Anita earned the highest Beyer speed figure (101) by a 3-year-old in 2025.

5. Gaming (30-1): Baffert’s Del Mar Futurity winner. The six-time Derby-winning trainer is loaded in his return from a three-year ban from Churchill Downs.

6. Journalism (20-1): Michael McCarthy’s Los Alamitos Futurity winner has been getting better as the races get longer.

7. Bullard (20-1): McCarthy again. Third to Barnes and Romanesque when the San Vicente pace didn’t suit his closing style.

8. Jonathan’s Way (40-1): He ran well at Churchill Downs before and after a disappointing try at the Breeders’ Cup.

9. Built (30-1): Must start from post 13 but is a 3-1 morning-line favorite to win his second stakes in the Grade III Lecomte.

10. Ferocious (30-1): A $1.3 million auction purchase, he has had more excuses than wins against division leaders.

11. Chancer McPatrick (20-1): Trainer Chad Brown’s double Grade I winner would rank higher if his 3-year-old debut weren’t delayed by ankle surgery.

12. Magnitude (80-1): Running in the Lecomte. Trainer Steve Asmussen likes his workouts better than his races so far.

13. First Resort (30-1): Well-traveled colt upset Jonathan’s Way at Churchill. Trained by Eoin Harty, who also has Remsen Stakes winner Poster.

14. Keep It Easy (40-1): All sprints so far, but he showed trainer Dale Romans something with a bounce-back stakes victory at Churchill.

15. Patch Adams (20-1): First of three Brad Cox-trained horses on this list. Exploded for a 10-length maiden win at Churchill.

16. Sovereignty (25-1): Was the 19-1 third choice in the previous round of future betting – behind 13-1 Barnes and 15-1 East Avenue – after a strong win at Churchill.

17. Getaway Car (50-1): Baffert. Seconds to Citizen Bull and Journalism keep this Del Mar stakes winner in the hunt.

18. Disco Time (50-1): Two for two for Cox. The Lecomte will be his first stakes-level challenge.

19. Admiral Dennis (NA): Cox. Not offered in this week’s future betting. Was favored over Built and Magnitude in the Gun Runner and needs a cleaner trip in the Lecomte.

20. Poster (40-1): A winner of the 1⅛-mile Remsen always merits a second glance.

Those rankings will change in the next 100 days and new contenders will emerge. Major prep races will include the April 5 Santa Anita Derby. A prospect or two might come from Japan and Dubai.

We’ll see how many of these 20 make it into the Kentucky Derby’s 20-horse field, and if the winner is on the list.

Follow horse racing correspondent Kevin Modesti at X.com/KevinModesti.

Orange County Register

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Horse racing column: 20 horses to watch as Kentucky Derby season begins

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