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Game Day: Advantage Lakers in Game 1?

May 2, 2023

Editor’s note: This is the Tuesday, May 2, 2023, edition of the “Game Day with Kevin Modesti” newsletter. To receive the newsletter in your inbox, sign up here.

Good morning. How big is Game 1 tonight for the Lakers and Golden State Warriors? That’s more than a rhetorical question. We’ll try to answer it after a glance at other news.

The Dodgers beat the Phillies, and J.P. Hoornstra writes that their season-high 15 hits, 13 runs and four-game winning streak are signs of recovery from a rough April.
Jeff Fletcher writes about what the Angels could do about their bullpen, which has an MLB-worst seven blown saves.
Andrew Knoll assesses the Kings’ pluses and minuses going into the offseason after another first-round playoff defeat.
And Kentucky Derby favorite Forte drew a post position near the outside while Santa Anita-based Practical Move, Skinner and Reincarnate will start Saturday’s race from near the middle of the 20-horse gate.

The Lakers and Warriors open their best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal series tonight in San Francisco. It’s the first playoff meeting since 1991 between the teams that have won 10 NBA titles in the 2000s. It’s the fifth postseason meeting between LeBron James and Stephen Curry.

Southern California News Group reporter Elliott Teaford and columnist Jim Alexander both pick the Lakers to win the series, both seeing a Game 7 victory for L.A. on the road.

“And before you scoff at Lakers in seven, remember who picked the Lakers in six over Memphis,” Alexander writes.

A potential Game 7 is 12 days away. For now, the pivotal game is Game 1.

Bay Area News Group columnist Dieter Kurtenbach picks the Warriors to win the series in six, wrapping it up in Los Angeles.

But Kurtenbach sees Game 1 as an opportunity for the Lakers.

“James will have his moments, if not entire games. He’s too great to write off,” he writes. “I also wouldn’t be surprised if he came out and claimed Game 1 — it’s the most rested he’ll be for the series.”

The Lakers, 4½-point underdogs this morning, have one big advantage in Game 1.

After winning their first-round series over the Memphis Grizzlies in six games, the Lakers and LeBron, 38, and Anthony Davis, a fragile 30, have had three full days off, while by taking seven to finish off the Sacramento Kings, the Warriors and Curry, 35, Klay Thompson, 33, and Draymond Green, 33, left themselves only one full day to rest and reset.

That might not be decisive. As Warriors coach Steve Kerr pointed out, his team won the afternoon Game 7 against Sacramento two days after losing the night Game 6.

“I think you saw what our older guys are capable of (Sunday) coming off of 36 hours rest,” Kerr said.

But over the past two seasons, including their 2022 NBA title run, the Warriors have generally not been at their best on one day of rest, going by data at StatFox.com. Their overall winning percentage after one day off (.568, 63-48) is no better than their record in back-to-back games, and their winning percentage against the point spread after one day off (.468, 52-59) is their worst in any “rest” category.

The Warriors might have rested stars in some short-turnaround games, of course, whereas they’ll hold nothing back tonight.

Game 1s usually are long forgotten by the time series like this are decided. If the Lakers win the series and advance to the NBA’s final four, they will have officially exceeded pre-season and even late-season expectations. It will be even more vindication for GM Rob Pelinka, whom columnist Mirjam Swanson writes about in today’s papers.

But the quickest route to a Lakers win in the series includes a Lakers win in the opener.

How big is Game 1? Huge.

TODAY

Lakers and Warriors play Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal series at San Francisco (7 p.m., TNT).
Angels (starting Patrick Sandoval, 3.16 ERA) open a three-game series at St. Louis (Steven Matz, 0-3) (4:45 p.m., BSW).
Dodgers have Julio Urias trying to end his three-game losing streak vs. the Phillies and Matt Strahm (7:10 p.m., SNLA).
LAFC faces Philadelphia in the home leg of their CONCACAF Champions League semifinal after drawing 1-1 on the road (7 p.m., FS1, TUDN). Preview.

BETWEEN THE LINES

After the Lakers beat Memphis on the road in game 1, they went from +108 underdogs to -300 favorites to win the opening-round series. The same could happen if the Lakers beat Golden State in game 1 tonight after being +134 underdogs this morning to win the series. Bets on the Lakers to win the series should be made while the odds are attractive.

280 CHARACTERS

“I’ve been fortunate enough to cover top guys in both sports. Never talked to LeBron as part of a group of fewer than 40 reporters postgame. I’ve had random locker-room one-on-ones with Sid Crosby and Connor McDavid after a match.” – Kings writer Andrew Knoll ((at)AndrewKnollNHL) tweeting about the difference in attention paid to pro basketball and hockey.

1,000 WORDS

Feeling at home: Michael Busch, the Dodgers’ rookie second baseman, singles to center for his first hit at Dodger Stadium in the fourth inning of a 13-4 victory over the Phillies last night. Photo is by Ashley Landis for AP.