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Californians aren’t buying the EV mandate

April 23, 2025

When California approved a phased ban on gas-powered cars, the state appeared to be riding the crest of an electric vehicle revolution. It was the height of the pandemic. Gas prices were climbing, long commutes had vanished, and from the Bay Area to Los Angeles, affluent progressives were snapping up Teslas in what looked like a stampede toward a zero-emission future.

Five years later, the momentum has stalled. After years of exponential sales growth for zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), registrations have remained flat for the past two years. In the first quarter of this year, they actually dropped to just 20.8% of all new vehicle registrations, down from 22% in 2024.

The EV market slump couldn’t come at a worse time. Under California’s zero-emission vehicle mandate, automakers and dealers must sell an increasing share of fully electric vehicles each year until 2035, when sales of new gas-powered and hybrid vehicles will be fully banned. The mandate requires that 35 percent of all new vehicles sold in model year 2026 be zero-emission. With those 2026 models already arriving on dealer lots, the pressure is on.

Tesla, long California’s EV market leader, is experiencing a sustained decline amid public outcry over its controversial CEO. New Tesla registrations fell significantly this year, continuing a slide that’s stretched across six consecutive quarters. Back in 2020, when California approved its electric vehicle mandate, Tesla made up eight out of every ten EV sales in the state. Today, its share has shrunk to less than half.

The public is concerned about the state EV mandate. A new statewide poll conducted by Tulchin Research found that 61% of California voters oppose the EV mandate after learning the policy details, with just 13% expressing strong support and 48% strongly opposed. Those concerns cut across ethnic and regional lines. Even in traditionally progressive regions like the Bay Area, 56% of respondents said they opposed the plan.

Voters’ top concern was California’s shortage of charging stations, but that message doesn’t seem to be resonating with state leaders. The Los Angeles Times recently reported that the number of EV chargers statewide has nearly doubled, citing new data from the California Energy Commission: 178,500 public and private chargers compared to 120,000 fuel nozzles at gas stations.

At first glance, those numbers sound impressive. But they don’t hold up to scrutiny.

The comparison to gas stations is misleading. Filling up a gas tank takes about five minutes, while a standard electric vehicle (EV) charger can take up to 10 hours. Even California’s 17,000 fast chargers—which account for a small fraction of total chargers—still need up to 30 minutes to charge. If the state hopes to move drivers away from fossil fuels, it will need vastly more EV chargers than gas pumps.

Reliability is another issue. A recent Bay Area-based study found that just over 72% of EV charging ports were functional at any given time. While nearly 200,000 EV chargers across the state represent undeniable progress, it’s still nowhere near what California needs to meet its climate goals. The energy commission estimates that more than 1 million chargers will be needed by 2030, and over 2 million by 2035.

California is currently installing about 38,000 chargers per year. At that pace, it will take another 50 years to reach the number of chargers state officials say are needed in less than a decade. California needs to ramp up charger installations by more than fivefold to reach its target.

And these benchmarks aren’t just a hollow aspiration—they’re central to California’s ambitious EV mandate. The policy depends on growing consumer demand, but that demand hinges on sufficient charging stations. Without accessible, reliable infrastructure, even interested consumers will hesitate to switch to fully electric.

Meanwhile, political and economic headwinds threaten to further erode the EV market: tariffs on imported vehicles, the potential rollback of the federal EV tax credit, the “Tesla Takedown” movement weakening the market leader, and the threat of an economic recession are all looming factors.

While these forces are largely beyond California’s control, the state can adjust policy to reflect them. California is aggressively pushing EV sales, but doing so ahead of available infrastructure will drive up prices, risking a giant consumer backlash. Californians want to support clean air and sustainable energy. A more measured approach would align the mandate with charging availability and market reality.

Jay Beeber is the executive director of the National Motorists Association

Orange County Register

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Californians aren’t buying the EV mandate

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