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Alexander: Will Dodgers’ ‘pen be mightier than Yankees’ bats?

October 25, 2024

Sandy Koufax. Johnny Podres. Don Drysdale.

See? The Dodgers have won a World Series with a three-man starting rotation. Against the Yankees, no less.

Then again, that was 61 years ago. Koufax set a World Series single-game strikeout record (15, surpassing Carl Erskine’s 14) in a 5-2 Game 1 victory and closed it out in Game 4, 2-1. Drysdale shut out the Yankees – the Mickey Mantle/Roger Maris Yankees – in Game 3, 1-0. Podres, the veteran whose 2-0 shutout victory in Game 7 in 1955 helped wash away years of Brooklyn Dodgers frustration at the hands of the bullies from the Bronx, won Game 2 in ’63, 4-1 – and it was the only time in the series the Dodgers needed a relief pitcher, with Ron Perranoski getting the final two outs for a save.

And now that we’ve had our ancient history lesson for the week … what are the chances the Dodgers can do it again now, with three starting pitchers and a cast of thousands (seemingly) coming out of the ’pen?

Consider this statistic: Through the first 11 games of this postseason, Dodger starters have pitched 36⅔ innings. Dodger relievers have taken down 60⅓. Of those, 27 innings came in bullpen games (counting three innings from rookie/sometimes starter Landon Knack). And the likelihood is that there will be at least one more of those in this series along with starts by Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler.

(Who probably should be known as The Survivors.)

My pick for World Series MVP before we start? Why not Blake Treinen, if the Dodgers should pull this off? He’s throwing as well as he has all season and has ascended to No. 1 on Dave Roberts’ trust tree with a 1.13 ERA in eight innings through the postseason.

Or maybe Evan Phillips, who hasn’t allowed anything in 6⅔ innings. Or, perhaps, Alex Vesia, who had an 0.00 ERA for three innings in the National League Division Series against the Padres but was unavailable for the NL Championship Series against the New York Mets because of injury. Assuming that he’s available here, it gives the Dodgers one more left-hander coming out of the bullpen for late game situations.

The seven Dodgers pitchers who would be trusted with late-game innings, counting Vesia, have a collective 1.80 ERA over 40 innings of work. Of those, Ryan Brasier is the outlier with a 5.14 ERA.

The bottom line is that in a historic matchup, with iconic players on both sides, the Dodgers’ chances of winning almost certainly will come down to their bullpen.

Their fans should be used to this, given the number of occasions over the years that relievers have given up critical hits and let games get away. Of course, the rule of thumb has been that the relievers give up the hits and runs but Roberts always gets the blame.

Under these circumstances, some of those critics actually have been giving Roberts credit for his pitching decisions recently, if grudgingly in some cases. Over the last two series, he has done a masterful job of not only picking the right guy at the right time, but of keeping particular relievers from facing particular hitters multiple times. The more a hitter sees a pitcher in a series the better chance he has, but Roberts’ usage negated that against the Padres and the Mets.

This will be the toughest task and likely the key to the series, limiting a Yankees lineup that features presumptive American League MVP Aaron Judge, Juan Soto – whose teams have eliminated the Dodgers twice, the Washington Nationals in 2019 and San Diego Padres in 2022 – and Giancarlo Stanton. The latter two carried the Yankees in the ALCS against Cleveland, Stanton with four homers, seven RBIs and a 1.222 OPS (on base-plus-slugging percentage), Soto with three homers (including the series-winner in Game 5) and six RBIs and a 1.373 OPS.

Then again, these Dodgers are capable of scoring plenty of runs, with presumptive NL MVP Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman at the top of the lineup, assuming Freeman’s ankle is healed enough for him to play. And let’s not forget that in a June series in Yankee Stadium, when the Dodgers outscored the Yankees 17-10 and won two out of three, Teoscar Hernandez was 6 for 12 with three homers – including a grand slam in the middle game, an 11-2 Dodgers victory – and nine RBIs.

So, maybe Teoscar for MVP if the Dodgers win it?

Even though the Dodgers had the better regular-season record (and thus, home-field advantage in Games 6 and 7 if necessary), and even though they have three former MVPs at the top of their lineup and an offense that averaged 5.2 runs per game in the regular season and has scored 70 runs in 11 postseason games, they’re considered the underdog here specifically because of those starting pitching concerns.

In a season in which they used 40 pitchers – really! – over 162 games, and have basically an entire starting rotation injured and unavailable, that they’ve gotten here is in itself an achievement. Finishing the regular season with the game’s best record? Going from the brink of Division Series elimination to the World Series?

Hey, it’s already been a wild ride.

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But if relief pitching is as important as it seems to have become in this era, these guys have one more miracle left in them. And if you want to be precise, in my mind this World Series matchup is occurring a year late.

From the March 29, 2023 online edition of the publication you’re reading, my forecast:

“In a year when the game returns to a classic style, get ready for a classic World Series: Dodgers vs. Yankees. And it says here that 2023 will be a repeat of 1981, which will be perfect symmetry in a season in which the Dodgers will finally retire Fernando Valenzuela’s No. 34.”

Obviously the crystal ball was foggy when it came to the date. And as it turns out, the spirit of Fernando will indeed hover over this series, following his death Tuesday.

So I’m putting it on the table: Dodgers in six.

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Orange County Register

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Alexander: Will Dodgers’ ‘pen be mightier than Yankees’ bats?

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