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Alexander: Can Lakers make history against Grizzlies?

April 15, 2023

So far this spring, the Lakers have hung their hats on resiliency. After falling behind by 15 points to a drastically short-handed Minnesota Timberwolves team on Tuesday, and finally winning in overtime to advance beyond the play-in round for the second time in three years, much was made of the self-imposed struggles they’ve overcome to get here.

It’s that old “nobody believed in us” trope, and so what if they dug their own trench and climbed out of it?

“That’s where we started, 2-10, and the analytic guys and the media, (people) upstairs in our front office, saying that we had 0.3% chance of getting to the playoffs, and obviously we defeated those odds,” Anthony Davis said after the 108-102 overtime victory over the Timberwolves.

Then, he added:

“You know, we don’t want to stop there, just getting in. Obviously, you got small victories, seeing where we started, but now we want to get greedy and make some noise in these playoffs.”

In one sense the task is steeper when the No. 7 seed Lakers face the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies, beginning with Game 1 on Sunday afternoon in Memphis. In the three previous years of play-in games, no team getting out of that preliminary round has won its first-round series – and of the nine series, only three have reached as many as six games and none have gone seven.

There’s usually a reason, in other words, why a team is a No. 2 seed, and the underlying message is that punting the first part of the season and depending on a hot streak at the end is no way to win a championship.

Then again, Laker fans can argue that their team, which knocked off the Golden State Warriors to reach the main draw in 2021, might have beaten Phoenix in the next round if Davis hadn’t hurt his groin in Game 4. Instead, they lost in six. There’s a theme here.

Those Lakers finished 42-30 in a truncated schedule, were the defending champs and were actually favored against the Suns, their low seed having a lot to do with LeBron James missing 27 games to injury and Davis missing 36.

Which brings us to these playoffs and this series. That team was never as underwater as this one was for most of the season, and yes, James again missed 27 games this season while Davis was unavailable for 36.

And yes, these Lakers are underdogs against Memphis, which was 51-31 in the regular season and features one of the game’s most dynamic (if sometimes impetuous) young players in Ja Morant (averaging 26.2 points, 8.1 assists, 5.9 rebounds per game) along with the league leaders in blocked shots (Jared Jackson, 3.0) and 3-point percentage (former Clipper Luke Kennard, .494).

But if you’re a Lakers fan looking for hope, consider: The Grizzlies will be without center Steven Adams (knee) and power forward Brandon Clarke (Achilles injury), meaning that as long as Davis can stay upright, he will be a thorny problem for Memphis and possibly the difference in the series.

“We have a healthy, active A.D. playing at a high level,” Coach Darvin Ham said before Tuesday’s game. “It takes a lot of pressure off the rest of the team, including Bron. You know Bron is going to be Bron. Bron is going to be spectacular. But A.D. has to be the guy that initiates for us, that sustains and finishes at a high level on both sides of the ball.”

But this is worth noting. The teams played three times this season, with the Lakers winning the two games in L.A. and Memphis winning its home game. And none of those games included James and Davis on the court together.

L.A. pulled out the first meeting, a 122-121 decision at home on Jan. 20, with a 41-point fourth quarter. Davis was out and James had 23 points, nine rebounds and six assists. When the Grizzlies won at home on Feb. 28, 121-109, Davis had 28 points, 19 rebounds and five blocked shots but was 9 for 19 from the field, two nights after James injured his foot in Dallas.

In the most recent meeting, a 112-103 Lakers victory on March 7 at home with LeBron still sidelined, Davis had 30 points, 22 rebounds and two blocks and was 11 for 17 from the field. Adams did not play in either of the last two games, and Clarke was out for the March game as well.

“In our matchups with Memphis they didn’t double(-team),” Davis recalled. “Usually Steven Adams guards me, and then (6-foot-7) Xavier Tillman, he kind of guarded me straight up, so I’m not sure what their plan is. Haven’t seen many double-teams against Memphis.”

In the last meeting, with both Adams and Clarke out, Tillman played 32 minutes and 7-foot rookie Santi Aldama played 26½. Rest assured, the Grizzlies have spent the last four days devising a defensive plan for Davis and for James. Also rest assured that the plan likely will change the longer the series goes and will be revised the first time that D’Angelo Russell or Dennis Schröder or Austin Reaves burns the Grizzlies.

Ham and Grizzlies coach Taylor Jenkins both come from the Mike Budenholzer coaching tree, so the strategic game within a game could be a classic. The game on the floor, meanwhile, could turn nasty, given the taunts and trash talk between the sides the last three years.

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Consider, too, that the league and its TV partners seem to have handed the Lakers a favorable schedule for the early part of the series. They’ve had four days of rest before Game 1, and they’ll enjoy two days off before Game 2 and two more days before Game 3 on Saturday evening in Los Angeles.

But the bottom line? This is not the Lakers team that struggled through the first four months of the season. Rob Pelinka’s moves at the trade deadline gave James and Davis a far better supporting cast. This truly is that proverbial team you don’t want to face in the postseason.

And as long as the two stars stay healthy, the pick here is that it will end in downtown L.A. two Fridays from now with the purple and gold streamers raining from the rafters, and the Lakers pivoting to prepare for either Golden State or Sacramento.

Maybe all of those folks who had the phrase “Lakers in 6” trending on Twitter a few days ago were prescient.

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Orange County Register

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Alexander: Can Lakers make history against Grizzlies?

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