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Douglas Schoen: Newsom focuses on political benefits, shakes up California’s Senate race

October 7, 2023

California Gov. Gavin Newsom fulfilled his long standing promise to appoint a Black woman to the United States Senate when he selected Laphonza Butler to assume the seat of the late Senator Dianne Feinstein, who passed away at age 90 last week.

The decision was largely political in nature for Newsom, a top surrogate for President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign who is likely looking to position himself for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, or, as I have written previously in these pages, a potential 2024 run if Biden makes a late decision not to run, whether due to his age, mental fitness, or any other factors.

Despite concerns about Butler’s previous status as a registered voter in Maryland and complete lack of experience holding public office – which caused Butler herself to be surprised by the appointment – even if Newsom does not run in 2024, his pick to replace the late Sen. Feinstein will surely help in 2028, although it would be foolish to overlook the impact of this appointment in the here and now.

Principally, Newsom had to make good on his prior commitment or he would have been excoriated by members of his own party. Butler belongs to Democrats’ two most important demographic groups; African Americans and women. Further, Butler is a member of the LGBTQ+ community, an increasingly influential voting bloc for Democrats.

Put another way, in a Democratic Party often looking to play identity politics, Newsom’s choice may cushion the inevitable pushback he would receive by challenging Vice President Kamala Harris in a Democratic primary.

Indeed, Butler helps secure Newsom’s position on multiple key policy fronts. As the president of pro-choice Democratic fundraising powerhouse EMILY’s List prior to her Senate appointment, Butler is a leading voice for reproductive rights and commands a strong network of advocates and allies, many of whom EMILY’s List fundraised for. Reproductive freedoms will undoubtedly be a top tier issue for women and Democratic voters in the post-Roe era.

Additionally, Butler worked for nearly 20 years at the Service Employees International Union, and, as president of its California chapter helped raise the State minimum wage to $15. Newsom has had a rocky relationship with labor throughout his tenure as Governor, so appointing Butler could go a long way to smoothing those issues over.

Newsom’s appointment of Butler, aside from shoring up his left-flank by selecting someone who is representative of several crucial Democratic constituencies, is also pragmatic and politically tactical. Any candidate seeking the Democratic nomination in 2028 will have to secure wide swaths of support among African Americans, women, and unions.

The move also showed political deftness. The governor will likely have to maneuver around fellow Californian Vice President Kamala Harris if he wants to be the Democratic nominee, either in 2028, or as Democrats’ ‘emergency option’ in 2024.

If President Biden bows out of the race, Harris would be the obvious Democratic frontrunner and the California governor would have to make up significant ground quickly, and appointing a black woman would certainly help Newsom vis-à-vis Harris in a primary.

In the wake of Newsom’s decision, there will likely be a messy 2024 California Senate primary. Senator Butler, the third Black female U.S. Senator in history, will have just two months until California’s filing deadline in December to decide whether to run for reelection and shake up the race.

Democratic Representatives Katie Porter from Orange County, Adam Schiff from Los Angeles, and Barbara Lee from San Francisco are all currently in the primary race. Porter and Schiff are fundraising heavyweights while Lee has the full weight of the Congressional Black Caucus behind her.

The caucus had urged Newsom to select Lee, but the governor was – wisely – wary of wading into an open Senate race and did not want to lend any of the three declared candidates an upper hand. Picking an outsider insulates Newsom from potential attacks that he played favorites and sought to influence next year’s election.

Although the primary election is still six months away and thus polling is scarce, a late September poll of likely voters in the state found Schiff at 20%, Porter at 15%, and Lee at 8%, underscoring that the race is wide open and the potential impact on the race had Newsom appointed one of the already-declared candidates.

Now that Butler joins Lee in the Congressional Black Caucus, it will be interesting to see how the CBC proceeds if Butler announces a run, which Newsom has said she is free to do, despite a lack of indication from her camp. Indeed, it is possible that after a couple months of campaigning the caucus decides it is in their interest to use Butler’s incumbency advantage to win a full term.

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Although short on time, Butler can leverage her stint at EMILY’s List and her union connections to build a well-oiled fundraising and organizing operation. Whoever ends up winning next year’s race in the influential liberal state will likely become a powerful leader in the Democratic Party and hold significant political capital as a possible surrogate in the future.

Should Butler decide to run, and win a full term, it will be interesting to see who she endorses in a primary between Newsom, who has started Butler’s career in public office, or Harris, who Butler advised in 2020 and remains a friend.

Even if Butler does not run next year, her appointment is the first in what will likely be an array of high-profile political moves by Governor Newsom to position himself to win the Democratic nomination in 2028 — or maybe even sooner than that.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.

Orange County Register

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Douglas Schoen: Newsom focuses on political benefits, shakes up California’s Senate race

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