No recession but sticky inflation. That’s what 71 economists predict.

• June 26, 2023

The US economy is now expected to narrowly dodge a recession this year but underlying inflation will be faster than previously thought, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists.

Gross domestic product is now forecast to only contract in the final three months of the year, and it’s projected to merely stagnate in the third quarter instead of shrink, the June survey showed.

While estimates were marked up for the current quarter and next — due to stronger consumer spending and upward revisions to business investment — GDP growth is seen slightly weaker through the end of 2024.

At the same time, economists see the personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, rising at a faster pace over the next year than they did in the May survey. That corroborates the Federal Reserve’s view as well, supporting policymakers’ assertion that another two interest-rate hikes will probably be appropriate this year.

According to the median forecast, economists see one more rate hike in the third quarter, with the federal funds rate holding in a 5.25%-5.5% range through yearend before an expected quarter-point cut in early 2024.

The survey of 71 economists from June 16-21 showed stronger views of the labor market. Forecasters mostly see increased hiring this year and next, and they also expect the unemployment rate will peak at a slightly lower level. That helps explain projections for sustained consumer spending.

The findings also support the notion that the housing market bottom has passed. While sales of previously owned homes are struggling for momentum, buyers are seeking new construction and builders have been responding to demand. Economists see that trend continuing with higher new-home sales over the next year and more housing starts.

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​ Orange County Register 

Status Update: McLaren shifts supercar dealership from beach to Irvine

• June 26, 2023

McLaren Newport Beach, one of the top-selling dealerships of its kind for the supercar brand, has officially introduced a bigger retail and service facility in Irvine after 12 years at the beach.

The dealership, which had its soft opening late last year, sits on Auto Center Drive next door to Lamborghini Newport Beach in a facility that doubles the size of its previous location.

Calling Orange County “the heart of McLaren’s biggest global sales market” the dealership held a grand opening celebration on June 21. In attendance was McLaren Automotive’s Chief Executive Officer Michael Leiters and Nicolas Brown, president of McLaren Americas’ division.

The company said the Newport Beach dealership was one of the original 10 founding retailers that started selling McLaren’s MP4 12C when the supercar manufacturer first entered the market in North America in 2011.

Since then, the local dealership has sold nearly 750 McLarens, the company said. How significant is that?

“More than many countries that we operate in have sold (that many) in the same timeframe,” according to Roger Ormisher, vice president of communications for The Americas division of McLaren.

Investors and owners of the dealership include principal dealer Pietro Frigerio and Trung Nguyen, both local residents, and Robert DiStanislao, owner of the RDS Group, which operates three McLaren dealerships and is based on the East Coast.

Address: 44 Auto Center Drive, Irvine

Swim school opens its pool in Surf City

Big Blue Swim School, a swim school franchise, recently opened its first California location in Huntington Beach.

The facility offers weekly, year-round 30 to 45-minute swim lessons seven days a week for children as young as 3 months old. Level-appropriate, engaging lessons are led by professional instructors.

The Surf City location is owned by the franchise group Level 5 Swim. Olympic gold medalist swimmer Tom Dolan is the CEO of the franchise group. A second facility owned by the same group is opening later this year at the Tustin Marketplace shopping center.

Big Blue offers 90-degree water, a viewing area for family members, private changing rooms, slip-proof flooring and free Wi-Fi. A mobile app also helps customers book, schedule, track classes and the progress of each participant.

Address: 18595 Main St.

Medical spa opens in Santa Ana

Glow Up Med has opened in Santa Ana after two years of planning and preparation.

The spa offers services including Botox, fillers, painless hair removal, micro-needling, facials and more. Bianca Davila is the owner and operator. She’s enlisted the guidance of medical director and facial surgeon Taylor Pollei.

The company said services that require injections are performed by licensed nurses.

The spa’s hours are 10 a.m. to 6:30 p.m. Monday-Thursday and from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Fridays

For more information, go to GlowUpMedSpa.com

Address: 1951 E. Dyer Road, Unit D, Santa Ana

Hospice facility opens in Santa Ana

The VITAS Healthcare Hospice House of Orange County has opened in Santa Ana-North Tustin.

The facility provides a “comfort-focused care option” for patients nearing their end of life, the company said.

The company said its hospice facility should serve 300 seriously ill patients annually. Hospice-eligible patients include those who need acute symptom management with comprehensive and compassionate end-of-life care.

A ribbon-cutting ceremony was held on Wednesday, June 21. For more information, call 844-818-9633 go to vitas.com

Address: 18582 Vanderlip Ave.

Great Gatsby fundraiser benefits Dragon Kim

The Great Gatsby-themed Legacy Fundraiser takes place July 1 in Yorba Linda, with proceeds benefiting the Irvine-based Dragon Kim Foundation.

The nonprofit works to inspire youth to “impact their communities while discovering and pursuing their passions.”

The event takes place at 18617 Yorba Linda Blvd.

Tickets are $150 each and include food and an open bar. Poker players can register to play for $1,000 each. There will be cash prizes for winners.

For more information, contact the foundation via email at [email protected]. To buy tickets, go to dragonkimfoundation.org/donate/

Service Champions expands in Washington

Brea-based Service Champions, a provider of plumbing, heating and air conditioning services, has acquired Seatown Electric, Plumbing, Heating and Air, a family-owned home services company in the Seattle area. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. The deal, the company said, will help expand Service Champions’ reach into the Pacific Northwest.

On the move

Emerald Archer is the new chief program officer at Girls Inc. of Orange County. The Santa Ana chapter of the national nonprofit has a goal of inspiring all girls to be “strong, smart, and bold.” Archer spent the last 14 years working in gender equity in higher education. Career highlights include designing a women’s and gender studies program at Mount Saint Mary’s University and developing workshops and events that advanced STEM and leadership opportunities for female students.

Jessica Cobb is the new director of philanthropy at Speech and Language Development Center in Buena Park. The nonprofit provides education and therapy services to children and adults with special needs. Cobb assumed her role in May.

Barb Krol has been appointed chief associate experience officer at Orange County’s Credit Union in Santa Ana. She will lead the human resources department as well as the learning and development team.

Milestones

Santa Ana-based Orangewood Foundation was selected as a 2023 California Nonprofit of the Year by state Sen. Thomas Umberg. The foundation was one of more than 100 nonprofits honored by their state senators and assemblymembers for outstanding contributions to local communities. Orangewood Foundation provides resources and services to youth in Orange County including groceries, hot meals, transitional housing, life skills workshops, employment leads and educational opportunities. 

The Orange County Register’s 16th annual Top Workplaces program opens for nominations Sunday, May 28. (Southern California News Group)

Top Workplaces 2023 is open

The Register’s 16th annual Top Workplace is seeking nominations of Orange County’s best companies and organizations.

Any organization with 35 or more employees in Orange County is eligible to participate and includes public, private, nonprofits and government agencies.

— Participation is free.

— Nominations are due July 7, 2023

— The list of winners will be announced in late 2023

To nominate go to ocregister.com/nominate or call 714-442-2768.

Status Update is compiled from press releases by contributing writer Karen Levin and edited by Business Editor Samantha Gowen. Submit items and high-resolution photos to [email protected]. Allow at least one week for publication. Items are edited for length and clarity.

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​ Orange County Register 

Record rainfall may set up banner year for California wine

• June 26, 2023

NAPA . — As sunlight spilled into California’s famed Napa Valley on a summer day, rows of wine grapes reflected the benefits of this winter’s record rainfall.

California has more than 960 square miles of vineyards dedicated to the wine industry, perhaps none as iconic as those growing in Napa Valley just north of San Francisco.

This year, wine grapes are thriving after record winter rainfall in California, but cool days of spring that have carried into summer are threatening to keep the grapes from ripening. The longer the fruit has to stay on the vine the more exposed it is to possible wildfires in the fall and rain in early winter.

The state’s normally bountiful wine grape harvest had been hindered in recent years by a combination of drought and wildfires.

California growers reported $600 million worth of grapes lost to smoke damage after the 2020 fire season, the office of U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla said. California’s wine industry generates $170.5 billion annually, according to the California Association of Winegrape Growers.

Now, a trip high above the valley in a hot air balloon revealed miles of lush, green vineyards.

Elias Fernandez, who has been the winemaker at Shafer Vineyards for 40 years, said the vines have 10% to 15% more fruit than last year. But he said cooler temperatures this summer could delay the harvest.

“The vines are just really happy and growing,” Fernandez said. “The nice thing is that they’re not completely full, so they are spread out, which is really ideal for ripening the whole berries.”

But whether they ripen before harvest, which usually starts after Labor Day, will depend on getting some warm, sunny days in the next couple of weeks, he said.

“The last time I checked, we were behind a couple of weeks and whenever we start to run behind, you start thinking about how (the harvest) can get closer to the rainy season,” he said.

Fernandez said it’s a bit early to know if there is trouble ahead for the harvest.

“But right now it looks pretty set up to be a nice vintage, we really just need a little more sun,” he added.

In recent years, Northern California’s wine country has been hit by major wildfires, driven by a changing climate, that destroyed parts of the world-famous region and left little doubt it is vulnerable to smoke and flames.

Shafer Vineyards lost its entire crop in 2020 after smoke from a devastating wildfire season tainted the grapes, Fernandez said.

Padilla and U.S. Rep. Mike Thompson, who both represent Napa Valley, introduced legislation in Congress this week to protect wine grape growers against wildfire smoke damage in the top wine-producing states in the country: California, Washington and Oregon. If approved, the two bills would strengthen research into “smoke taint” and order federal regulators to develop “fair insurance products for growers,” Padilla’s office said in a statement.

See more on record rains, California wine

California artists, chefs find creative ways to confront destructive ‘superbloom’ of wild mustard
Heal the Bay: Wet winter polluted the water for Southern California beaches
California weather: El Niño storms likely to be big, increase temperatures
The buzziest California wine region isn’t Napa or Sonoma

​ Orange County Register 

Shopping on social media the smart way

• June 26, 2023

When Ziwei Cong bought some sweatpants that caught her eye during a livestream shopping event on social media, she was disappointed when they arrived and didn’t fit well.

“It’s very easy for me to become irrational during these kinds of shopping events,” says the assistant professor of marketing at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business. She adds that the hosts can be very persuasive and hook you with limited- time offers to trigger impulse purchases.

Social shopping, or purchases made through social media sites that sometimes incorporate livestreaming events with influencers, is booming. Almost half of U.S. consumers (47%) say they’ve made a purchase on social media, and 39% say they have bought that way and would do so again, according to 2022 data in a report released in April by the market intelligence agency Mintel.

“Shopping on social media has really taken off more with younger consumers. They’re on their phones more and on social media more often, so it’s easier to purchase via social media when they find a product they like,” says Katie Hansen, senior retail and e-commerce analyst at Mintel and author of the report.

Despite its popularity, social shopping also comes with risks, most notably overspending, as Cong’s experience illustrates. The excitement, discounts and limited quantities can lead to unplanned (and regrettable) purchases. Shopping experts suggest the following guideposts when engaging in social shopping.

Proceed slowly

Social shopping so easily leads to overspending, Cong says, because it’s so engaging. “It’s a more direct and interactive way to communicate with consumers, and it boosts the perceived experience of the product,” she explains, especially if a shopper sees their favorite influencer using the product.

The flash sales and limited promotions contribute to that rush to purchase, as does the “herding effect” from seeing other people leave comments and express their desire to buy, Cong adds.

To resist those temptations, shopping expert Trae Bodge from truetrae.com suggests slowing down and even stepping away from the screen. “Make sure it’s something you want. The sense of excitement and urgency might make you buy something that you haven’t properly vetted,” she adds. “It’s always good to take a beat.”

Budgeting expert Andrea Woroch says that if you see something appealing pop up in your feed, instead of buying it immediately, save the link to come back to later, after you take time to consider your budget. “That will avoid any buyer’s remorse,” she says.

Compare prices and check reviews

Bodge also encourages shoppers to check other websites for lower prices, look for coupons and leverage cash-back options that might be available outside of social shopping, such as on retailer or brand sites.

Woroch suggests checking customer reviews, too. “Do your homework like you would on another shopping site to make sure it’s the quality you expect. A lot of people overlook that when they do social shopping,” she says — one reason why the “what I ordered vs. what I got” meme is so popular on social media.

In some cases, making returns for items purchased through social shopping can be more of a hassle, so it’s worth checking the return policy in advance, Woroch also notes.

Keep personal information private

Though social shopping can feel like a community experience, it’s worth remembering that your public comments are visible to strangers, and it’s important to keep personal details private, Bodge says. “Don’t overshare, and never put your credit card or address in the comments,” she adds.

Bodge also advises against leaving the social media platform to enter payment information on a third-party site, which could be a scam, and she encourages people to use a credit card to make purchases for added fraud protection.

Woroch notes that phones will sometimes automatically connect to available public Wi-Fi networks, which can leave you vulnerable to hackers when you are sharing payment information online. She suggests avoiding social shopping on public Wi-Fi networks.

Then, reap the rewards

With those precautions in place, social shopping can be a positive experience for consumers, especially because it allows them to connect directly with brands, including those they might not have otherwise been exposed to through a retailer, says Edward Fox, professor of marketing at Southern Methodist University’s Cox School of Business.

“It democratizes the commercial world and allows smaller brands to get a broader audience than they would otherwise,” he says.

It gives consumers more choices, too.

This article was written by NerdWallet and was originally published by The Associated Press. 

​ Orange County Register 

Blackstone selling warehouses to Prologis for $3.1 billion

• June 26, 2023

By Dawn Lim | Bloomberg

Blackstone Inc. struck a deal to sell warehouses and industrial properties to Prologis Inc. for $3.1 billion.

San Francisco-based Prologis’ deal will expand its reach in key markets including Atlanta and parts of California (Southern California, Central Valley and the Bay Area), the companies said Monday in a statement. The properties represent nearly 14 million square feet.

Property owners have been snapping up warehouses in recent years, lured in part by the rise in e-commerce. But the broader commercial real estate sector has come under pressure over the past year as borrowing costs rose, complicating the financing for certain owners.

SEE MORE: 4.1 million-square-foot warehouse in Ontario will be Amazon’s biggest ever

“These high-quality properties are complementary to our portfolio and fit perfectly into our long-term strategic plan for growth,” Dan Letter, Prologis’ president, said in the statement.

The sale will allow Blackstone’s opportunistic funds, which buy properties with the goal to maximize their value, to cash out. Blackstone’s Nadeem Meghji, who leads the real estate business in the Americas, said logistics properties remain a “high conviction theme” for the company.

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​ Orange County Register 

Recipe: Take advantage of apricot season by making this dessert

• June 26, 2023

If I was granted the ability to change life spans, I’d start with dogs and apricots. In my book, dogs have far too few years. Most dog lovers would agree that 10 to 13 years is not enough. And as for apricots, perhaps my favorite stone fruit, the season is way too short. OK, maybe not a life span, but they disappear too soon. Each year,  I make the most of them in the short time they are available.

Apricot’s juicy flesh looks like deep-pile velvet. The taste, enhanced by flowery perfume, is a perfect balance of sweet and tart flavors. They are delicious paired with blueberries in a delectable galette.

Galettes are much easier and faster to prepare than pies. The dough, quickly prepared in a food processor, is rolled out and roughly folded over the sides of the sugar-coated fruit. Easy peasy.

Easy Apricot and Blueberry Galette

Yield: 6 servings

INGREDIENTS

1 1/2 cups all-purpose flour, plus more flour for rolling dough

1/2 teaspoon salt

10 tablespoons unsalted cold butter, cut into 1/2-inch pieces

6 to 7 tablespoons ice water plus 1 tablespoon, divided use

1 pound fresh apricots, about 8, halved, pitted, and cut into 1/2-inch thick wedges

5 ounces (1 cup) fresh blueberries

6 tablespoons granulated sugar, divided use

For serving: Ice cream

Cook’s notes: Toss fruit with sugar just before assembly; do not toss it in advance.

DIRECTIONS

1. Place 1 1/2 cups flour and salt in food processor; process about 3 seconds to combine. Scatter butter over top and pulse on/off until mixture resembles coarse crumbs, about 10 to 12 pulses. Sprinkle 6 tablespoons ice water (without ice) on top. Pulse until combined, adding 1 more tablespoon of ice water if needed for dough to come together. Only pulse until the dough just barely comes together. On a lightly floured work surface, bring dough together and form into a disk. Wrap in plastic wrap (or place in zipper-style plastic bag) and refrigerate for 1 hour up to 2 days.

2. Adjust oven rack to lower-middle position and heat to 375 degrees. Line a rimmed baking sheet with parchment paper. Let chilled dough sit on the counter to soften slightly, about 10 to 15 minutes (depending on the temperature of your kitchen), before rolling. On a lightly floured surface, roll out dough to a 12-inch circle. Transfer to prepared sheet.

3. Gently toss apricots, blueberries and 5 tablespoons sugar together in bowl. Mound fruit in center of dough, leaving a 2-inch border around edge. Carefully grasp 1 edge of dough and fold up 2 inches over fruit. Repeat around circumference, overlapping dough every 2 inches or so; gently pinch pleated dough to secure, but do not press dough into fruit.

4. Brush top of dough with remaining 1 tablespoon water and sprinkle with remaining 1 tablespoon sugar over dough and fruit. Bake until the crust is golden brown and fruit is bubbling, 45 to 55 minutes. Using a large metal spatula, loosen the galette from parchment and carefully slide onto wire rack; let cook until warm, about 30 minutes. Cut into wedges and serve with ice cream.

Source: Adapted from Cooks Country magazine

Cooking question? Contact Cathy Thomas at [email protected]

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​ Orange County Register 

OCMA changes things up for summer

• June 26, 2023

Summer is heating up and the Orange County Museum of Arts has a cool option for those looking for something to do inside: A trio of new exhibits have opened in its galleries.

This is the museum’s first summer in its new $94 million home that opened at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in October. And visitors have been streaming through its doors since the opening – it welcomed its 100,000th guest in late February and just this month surpassed 200,000 people.

New to look at are exhibits “Alice Neel: Feels Like Home,” “Tony Lewis: CASUAL T,” and “Yu Ji: A Guest, A Host, A Ghost,” all curated by Courtenay Finn, OCMA’s chief curator. This is the first solo exhibition by Chinese artist Ji in an American museum.

“Feels Like Home” features more than 40 pieces by Neel, a 20th century American figurative painter.

“Alice Neel’s work reminds us that humans are imperfect, offering a poignant truthfulness about what relationships and emotions really look like,” Finn said. “Her work captures her own declaration that, ‘I paint to try to reveal the struggle, tragedy and joy of life.’”

The Lewis exhibit makes use of the museum’s Avenue of the Arts gallery, with its floor-to-ceiling windows that share the art with the community passing by.

The Costa Mesa museum has continued to refresh the “13 Women” exhibition it debuted with, now in its fourth variation, and Sanford Biggers’ bigger-than-life outdoor installation “Of many waters” will be on display through Aug. 13.

Admission to the museum is free and it has artist talks, family activities, art nights and more planned throughout the summer. Get information on hours and events at ocma.art.

Related links

How to spend a day at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts for less than $75
Here’s who’s behind 10 years of free admission at the Orange County Museum or Art
What’s inside the new OCMA? Art looking both at the past and future
Why the Orange County Museum of Art’s key donor stuck it out
OC Museum of Art’s new building to open with spotlight on its ’13 Women’ founders

​ Orange County Register 

Buena Park council to consider housing development to replace closed Sears

• June 26, 2023

A proposed mixed-use project, estimated to develop some 1,300 residential units on about 25 acres, is before the Buena Park City Council on Tuesday, June 27.

The proposal is to redevelop the property, on the corner of La Palma and Stanton avenues, that houses a vacant Sears and Sears Auto Center as well as surface parking lots into a mix of 1,176 apartments and 126 townhomes as well as nearly 3,000 parking spaces (bike and electric vehicle parking spots would also be available) and a publicly-accessible one-acre park.

Since the Sears department store shuttered, the space has been used for a farmer’s market, pumpkin patch, Christmas tree lot, Tesla vehicle storage and more, according to a staff report.

The Village at Buena Park — as it’s called by San Diego-based real estate investor Merlone Geier Partners, which acquired the property a few years ago — would be walkable to restaurants, shopping and entertainment.

It is adjacent to the Buena Park Downtown Mall and nearby Knott’s Berry Farm and Soak City.

Construction would be expected to take part in two phases, according to a planning staff report, with the first phase to take place between 2023 and 2025 and the next phase from 2024 to 2027.

The apartment complex, according to that report, would consist of five- to seven-story buildings with balconies and a contemporary architecture in an earth-toned color palette. The townhomes would rise three stories and include front patios on the ground level and balconies on the second, the report said.

Related links

Buena Park motel renovated into 57 affordable apartments
Developers propose 576 homes in Orange, some at the mall, others by hospital
Council set to vote on 380 apartments, new buildings to replace Brea Mall’s shuttered Sears wing

A website from Merlone Geier promoting the project and soliciting feedback says area traffic would not be impacted when compared to the existing allowed commercial use of the property.

The project is before the City Council on Tuesday without any recommendation from the city’s Planning Commission, where it got a 2-2 vote with two commissioners recommending approval, two recommending rejection, two absent from the vote and another abstaining.

The council will consider the proposed development, a zoning change from regional commercial to general mixed-use and a tentative tract map at its meeting.

Other malls are having to figure out what to do with their shuttered Sears, as well. Recently, the owner of the regional mall in Brea got city approval to build a five-story, 380-unit apartment complex along with new restaurants, shops and a fitness center.

The Buena Park City Council meeting can be attended in person at 6650 Beach Blvd., or it can be viewed online.

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​ Orange County Register