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    They’re called ‘100-year floods.’ But they’re likely becoming more frequent, study says.
    • July 5, 2023

    A new study released last week shows that some “100-year flood” estimates may not reflect a changing climate.

    First Street Foundation, a research and technology nonprofit that studies and collects data on climate risks, released its eighth National Risk Assessment: “The Precipitation Problem.”

    Many climate and weather groups gauge extreme rain events as a “100-year flood” or a “1-in-100-year-flood.” Also known as a “100-year recurrence interval,” this means that a flood of that magnitude has a 1% chance of happening in any year.

    According to the new study, roughly 21% of the country can now expect their “1-in-100 year flood” to happen every 25 years. In the most extreme cases, over 20 counties are expected to experience the current “1-in-100 year flood” severe event at least once every 8-10 years.

    The study says many Americans, more than half, live in an area that is twice as likely to experience such a rain event than is predicted by Atlas 14 — is a peer-reviewed record of precipitation frequency estimates for the United States produced by the National Weather Service. Every few years, the program gets updated, and the Atlas 15 is expected to be complete by 2027.

    “Atlases were developed based on the temporal stationarity of precipitation, which assumes that the occurrence probability of extreme precipitations is not expected to change over time,” a portion of the study reads. “However, climate change has altered the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation over time, and most climate models project that the features of extreme precipitation will continue to grow throughout the 21st century.”

    Data from the study will be integrated into Risk Factor’s platform by the end of the month. Risk Factor’s data tools allow users to search for their home or ZIP code to view environmental changes and risks of major natural events, such as floods or fire. For example, if a 100-year flood occurred today in Norfolk’s 23507 ZIP code, it could affect 669 properties. This type of event has a 26% chance of occurring at least once over the life of a 30-year mortgage. About 30 years from now, an event of this same likelihood would affect 1,178 properties, due to a changing environment. According to the study, the change in return period for Hampton Roads is closer to 1 in 20 years.

    “The magnitude of the changes in expected rainfall intensity are startling for many areas in the United States, and it is important that Americans are fully aware of this consequence of climate change that can impact their lives and homes,” Jungho Kim, First Street Foundation’s senior hydrologist and lead author of the peer-reviewed study, said in a statement.

    Researchers said that because a lot of federal funding programs use Atlas 14 data to distribute money, there could be issues with getting the most accurate assessments on damage costs. According to Atlas 14, a 100-year flood in Norfolk would be a rain event during which 9.2 inches fall within a 24-hour period.

    “The fact that the nation will not have the most accurate estimates of extreme precipitation likelihoods available at the time of the design of (Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act) projects means that many of them will be out of date on the day they are opened to the public,” Matthew Eby, founder and executive director of First Street Foundation, said.

    Eliza Noe, eliza.noe@virginiamedia.com

    ​ Orange County Register 

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    A new law is supposed to protect pregnant workers — but what if we don’t know how?
    • July 5, 2023

    Gina Jiménez | Kaiser Health News (TNS)

    Vanessa Langness had always been a bit worried about the chemicals she worked with as a biomedical researcher, but when she got pregnant in October, her concerns grew. The 34-year-old based in Santa Maria, California, suspected the ethidium bromide she was using in the lab for molecular cloning could put her and her baby at risk.

    She wasn’t sure what to do; she was only a few weeks into her pregnancy and didn’t know how it would affect her career.

    “Women are taught: You aren’t supposed to tell people until after the first trimester,” she said. “But that’s actually a really delicate stage for the formation of the baby.”

    Langness did some research online but couldn’t find much information on what kind of extra precautions she should take because of her pregnancy. Without realizing it, she had stumbled upon an often overlooked area of science and medicine: the occupational health of pregnant workers. Those who are pregnant often face hazardous circumstances doing jobs in which they must lift heavy objects, stand for long periods, or, like Langness, work with chemicals.

    At the end of last year, Congress approved the Pregnant Workers Fairness Act, a law that requires employers to provide “reasonable accommodations” to those who are pregnant. But the new law, which took effect June 27, has a big hole in it: Public health experts say not nearly enough is known about which work circumstances are dangerous for pregnancies, especially when chemical exposures are involved. That’s because occupational health studies overwhelmingly have been centered on men, and so have the health and safety standards based on those studies.

    “A pregnant person’s physiology is very different from a nonpregnant person,” said Carissa Rocheleau, an epidemiologist at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. “A lot of our existing permissible exposure limits date back to 1970. In the studies they based the limits on, there were very few women in general and even fewer pregnant women, if any.”

    The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists’ guidance for employment considerations during pregnancy says that very few chemical compounds “have been sufficiently studied to draw conclusions about potential reproductive harms.”

    Even though the data is sparse, several physiological factors suggest pregnant workers face higher health risks from chemical exposures than other adults, said Julia Varshavsky, a Northeastern University environmental health scientist focused on maternal and child health. And chemical exposures during pregnancy can be dangerous not just for the prospective parent, but also for the fetus, which can absorb toxins through the placenta.

    For one thing, blood volume increases during pregnancy because the body is working overtime to supply the fetus with the oxygen and nutrients it needs to develop. Such blood-flow expansion can make those who are pregnant susceptible to developing high blood pressure. Some studies also suggest a link between exposure to lead during pregnancy and high blood pressure.

    Pregnancy also considerably alters a person’s metabolism; the body prioritizes breaking down fats instead of sugars to preserve the sugar for the developing fetus. Especially after the first trimester, those who are pregnant have high blood sugar and must double their insulin production to keep it under control. It’s risky for them to be exposed to chemicals such as PFAS that have been linked to insulin resistance, a condition in which cells don’t respond to insulin anymore.

    Finally, those who are pregnant are also especially susceptible to a category of chemicals known as endocrine disruptors. Estrogen is the hormone responsible for promoting the body’s changes during pregnancy. When endocrine disruptors enter the body, they mimic those hormones and can increase the risk of certain pregnancy-related health conditions, such as preeclampsia.

    But despite these known risks, the occupational health of pregnant women has often been understudied, especially as women have entered more diverse areas of work.

    “Occupational health really assumes a neutral body worker,” said Swati Rayasam, a public health scientist at the Program on Reproductive Health and the Environment at the University of California-San Francisco. By concentrating on this “neutral body worker,” occupational health as a field has overlooked the other stressors workers can face, either internal stressors, such as pregnancy, or external stressors, such as psychosocial stress due to racism or food insecurity, Rayasam said.

    It also is tough to study those who are pregnant. It is unethical to expose them to even the slightest amount of chemicals, so research protocols are highly restricted. And very few occupational health surveys include enough pregnant workers to draw reliable conclusions about the unique risks they face.

    Langness, the biomedical researcher in California, had a miscarriage while working in the lab. She later decided to change jobs, although she doesn’t know if the chemicals had anything to do with the loss of the baby.

    The lack of research doesn’t affect only current pregnancies but also leaves women who have already been exposed with lots of questions. They include Leticia Mendoza, a 38-year-old woman who lives in Oakland, California. She said she was exposed to pesticides when she worked pruning strawberries while pregnant. When her baby was born, he did not crawl until he was 1 year old and started walking after he turned 2.

    “I thought he was going to start talking when he was 3, but he still doesn’t, and he is 5,” Mendoza said.

    Mendoza’s child has been diagnosed with autism.

    Although researchers have studied potential links between pesticide exposure and neurodevelopmental disorders, the evidence is not conclusive, which complicates proving in a court what caused the harm, said Sharon Sagiv, an associate adjunct professor in environmental epidemiology at the University of California-Berkeley.

    Advocates hope the new federal law will give workers a little more leverage when they raise concerns about risks on the job. “We really just want them to be able to have a conversation with their employer without facing retaliation or being forced on unpaid leave,” said Kameron Dawson, a senior staff attorney for A Better Balance, a workers’ advocacy organization that pushed for the Pregnant Workers Fairness Act for over a decade.

    But although some of the regulations might lead to better accommodations for pregnant workers, that depends partly on the employer or a union knowing what can represent a risk. “It’s not rocket science, but it does take effort on the employer’s side to understand what in their workplace could be hazardous,” said Gillian Thomas, a senior staff attorney at the American Civil Liberties Union.

    In the past, women have sometimes been forbidden from working while pregnant, so a delicate balance must be struck between protecting them and their pregnancies and not removing them from the workforce. “It’s tricky because, for many women, this is their livelihood,” said Sagiv.

    Some researchers believe studying the enhanced risks faced in pregnancy may result in more protective regulations that would help the wider public.

    “If we really try to protect the most vulnerable workers in the workplace, we’re protecting everybody,” Rocheleau said.

    This article was produced by KFF Health News , which publishes California Healthline , an editorially independent service of the California Health Care Foundation .

    KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about KFF.

    ©2023 Kaiser Health News. Visit khn.org. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

    ​ Orange County Register 

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    Los Alamitos actress who starred in ‘Smallville’ out of prison for role in sex-trafficking cult
    • July 5, 2023

    The television actor Allison Mack, who pleaded guilty for her role in a sex-trafficking case tied to the cult-like group NXIVM, has been released from a California prison, according to a government website.

    Mack, best known for her role as a young Superman’s close friend on “Smallville,” was sentenced to three years behind bars in 2021 after pleading guilty two years earlier to charges that she manipulated women into becoming sex slaves for NXIVM leader Keith Raniere.

    Online records maintained by the Federal Bureau of Prisons said Mack, 40, was released Monday from a federal prison in Dublin, California, near San Francisco. Her release was first reported by the Albany Times-Union.

    Mack avoided a longer prison term by cooperating with federal authorities in their case against Raniere, who was ultimately sentenced to 120 years in prison after being convicted on sex-trafficking charges.

    Mack helped prosecutors mount evidence showing how Raniere created a secret society that included brainwashed women who were branded with his initials and forced to have sex with him.

    In addition to Mack, members of the group included an heiress to the Seagram’s liquor fortune, Clare Bronfman; and a daughter of TV star Catherine Oxenberg of “Dynasty” fame.

    Mack would later repudiate Raniere and express “remorse and guilt” before her sentencing in federal court in Brooklyn, New York.

    According to The Hollywood Reporter, Mack was born in Germany, where her father was an opera singer. The family later moved to Southern California and Mack graduated from the Orange County High School of the Arts in Santa Ana, now called the Orange County School of the Arts.

    She was living with her parents in Los Alamitos before serving her time in prison.

    ​ Orange County Register 

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    Duran Duran is coming to Yaamava’ Resort & Casino in August
    • July 5, 2023

    The Grammy Award-winning English new wave band Duran Duran will make a tour stop to headline Yaamava Resort & Casino in Highland on Sunday, Aug. 20.

    Tickets for the event will go on sale at 10 a.m. Monday, July 10 at yaamava.com. The casino show marks the second tour stop in Southern California that the band has publicly announced. The second stop is at the North Island Credit Union Amphitheatre in Chula Vista on Tuesday, Aug. 22.

    Sign up for our Casino Insider newsletter and get the week’s best bets for food, entertainment and fun at Southern California’s casinos. Subscribe here.

    Duran Duran emerged from the New Romantic scene out of the United Kingdom in the 1970s that was characterized by flamboyant and eccentric fashion inspired by the music of David Bowie, Marc Bolan and Roxy Music. The group was innovative with their approach in making music videos, which helped pave their success in leading the MTV-driven Second British Invasion in the 1980s.

    The band, known for hits such as “Come Undone,” “Ordinary World” and “Save a Prayer,” has won numerous awards throughout their career including two Brit Awards, two Grammy Awards, an MTV Video Music Award for Lifetime Achievement and a Video Visionary Award from the MTV Europe Music Awards.

    They were also awarded a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame and were inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame in 2022.

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    ​ Orange County Register 

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    Disneyland crews install ‘Big Hero 6’ towers on San Fransokyo bridge — See photos
    • July 5, 2023

    Crews have begun installing the twin towers of San Fransokyo’s Shinto shrine-inspired Golden Gate bridge as Disneyland continues the transformation of the Pacific Wharf dining area into a tribute to the “Big Hero 6” film.

    Photos show the steel framework of the distinctive San Fransokyo Square bridge taking shape at the entrance to the rethemed food court at Disney California Adventure, according to Disney Geek.

    Sign up for our Park Life newsletter and find out what’s new and interesting every week at Southern California’s theme parks. Subscribe here.

    More views of the ongoing work on San Fransokyo bridge at #DisneyCaliforniaAdventure. #BigHeroSix#dapsmagic pic.twitter.com/ddTVdLzROd

    — Daps Magic (@DAPs_Magic) June 30, 2023

    Disneyland employees signed their names and messages to the steel cross beams before the bridge uprights were installed, according to MousePlanet.

    “This will all be covered when the bridge is eventually painted, but it’s a nice touch,” according to MousePlanet.

    MousePlanet

    Disneyland employees signed their names and messages to the steel supports of San Fransokyo’s Shinto shrine-inspired bridge at Disney California Adventure. (Courtesy of MousePlanet)

    The bridge spanning the waterway bordering the outdoor dining area at Disney California Adventure is closed while steelworkers add the distinctive Torii Gate Bridge towers depicted in the 2014 Disney animated film. The bridge is expected to reopen in the next few weeks after work is completed.

    San Fransokyo served as the central location in “Big Hero 6,” drawing upon inspirations from both cities to create the fictional metropolis. Walt Disney Imagineering is slowly but steadily turning the Monterey Bay-themed Pacific Wharf food court into an architectural cross between the San Francisco Bay and Tokyo Bay areas.

    Just signed a beam that will be part of the San Fransokyo Gate Bridge pic.twitter.com/JL0acSOAUW

    — Sasaki Time (@SasakiTime) June 27, 2023

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    The “Big Hero 6” Torii Gate Bridge recalls the scaled-down version of the Golden Gate Bridge that once marked DCA’s entryway until an extensive renovation of the park a decade ago.

    Work is expected to continue through mid-August on the transformation of Pacific Wharf into San Fransokyo Square. Big Hero 6-themed menu items will begin rolling into the transformed Pacific Wharf eateries starting in mid-July.

    Visitors will be able to pose for photos in DCA’s San Fransokyo with Baymax and Hiro Hamada and Baymax, the adolescent hero from the film and his inflatable healthcare robot sidekick.

    ​ Orange County Register 

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    France sees itself as blind to race. After a teen is killed by police, how does one discuss racism?
    • July 5, 2023

    By CARA ANNA

    NANTERRE, France — The race of the police officer who fatally shot a French teenager during a traffic stop last week hasn’t been disclosed, and there’s no reason why it would be. Officially, race doesn’t exist in France.

    But the death of the French-born 17-year-old with North African roots, which sent rioters into the streets, has again exposed deep feelings about systemic racism under the surface of the country’s ideal of colorblind equality.

    With his killing captured on video, what could be seen as France’s George Floyd moment has produced a very French national discussion that leaves out what many Americans would consider the essential point: color.

    One can’t address race, much less racism, if it doesn’t exist, according to French policy. The Paris police chief, Laurent Nunez, said Sunday he was shocked by the U.N. human rights office’s use of the term “racism” in its criticism of French law enforcement. The police have none of it, he said.

    France, especially white France, doesn’t tend to frame discussion of discrimination and inequality in black-and-white terms. Some French consider it racist to even discuss skin color. No one knows how many people of various races live in the country, as such data is not recorded.

    FILE – A demonstrator wears a T-shirt reading “Justice for Nahel” during a march Thursday, June 29, 2023 in Nanterre, outside Paris. Officially, race doesn’t exist in France. But the killing of the French-born 17-year-old with North African roots has again exposed deep feelings about systemic racism that lie under the surface of the country’s ideal of color-blind equality. (AP Photo/Michel Euler, File)

    FILE – A man sits on a road sign above a banner reading “Allah, mercy for Nahel” during a march for Nahel, Thursday, June 29, 2023 in Nanterre, outside Paris. Officially, race doesn’t exist in France. But the killing of the French-born 17-year-old with North African roots has again exposed deep feelings about systemic racism that lie under the surface of the country’s ideal of color-blind equality. (AP Photo/Michel Euler, File)

    FILE – Police stand amid firecrackers on the third night of protests sparked by the fatal police shooting of a 17-year-old driver in the Paris suburb of Nanterre, France, Friday, June 30, 2023. France, especially white France, doesn’t tend to frame discussion of discrimination and inequality in black-and-white terms. Some French consider it racist to even discuss skin color. No one knows how many people of various races live in the country, as such data is not recorded. (AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard, File)

    FILE – Police patrol past a graffiti reading “Justice for Nahel” as youths gather on Concorde square during a protest in Paris, France, Friday, June 30, 2023. France, especially white France, doesn’t tend to frame discussion of discrimination and inequality in black-and-white terms. Some French consider it racist to even discuss skin color. No one knows how many people of various races live in the country, as such data is not recorded. (AP Photo/Lewis Joly, File)

    FILE – In this image taken from video, two police officers question a driver during a traffic stop as one of the officers points a gun toward the car’s window in Nanterre, France, Tuesday, June 27, 2023. The race of the police officer who fatally shot a French teenager during a traffic stop last week hasn’t been disclosed, and there’s no reason why it would be. Officially, race doesn’t exist in France. (@Ohana_FNG via AP, File)

    Flowers lay at the tomb of Nahel Merzouk Wednesday, July 5, 2023 in a cemetery in Nanterre, a Paris suburb. Video of the June 27, 2023 killing showed two police officers at the window of the car driven by Nahel, one with his gun pointed at the driver. As the teenager pulled forward, the officer fired once through the windshield. Nahel’s death caused five nights of unrest in France. (AP Photo/Cara Anna)

    Flowers lay at the tomb of Nahel Merzouk Wednesday, July 5, 2023 in a cemetery in Nanterre, a Paris suburb. Video of the June 27, 2023 killing showed two police officers at the window of the car driven by Nahel, one with his gun pointed at the driver. As the teenager pulled forward, the officer fired once through the windshield. Nahel’s death caused five nights of unrest in France. (AP Photo/Cara Anna)

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    “They say we are all French … so for them, it’s racist to do something like that,” said Iman Essaifi, a 25-year-old resident of Nanterre, the Paris suburb where the teen, Nahel Merzouk, was killed.

    While the subject of race remains taboo, Essaifi believes the events of the past week were a step toward speaking more openly about it. She noted that the people who marched in the streets of Nanterre after Nahel’s death were “not necessarily Arabs, not necessarily Blacks. There were whites, there were the ‘vrai Francais,’” – the “real French.”

    France’s Constitution says the French Republic and its values are considered universal, meaning that all citizens have the same rights regardless of origin, race or religion.

    Trying to discuss racial inequality without mentioning race leads to some linguistic gymnastics. Instead of terms like Black or mixed-race neighborhoods, French people instead often speak of “communities” or “banlieues” (suburbs) and “quartiers” (neighborhoods). They’re widely understood to mean often disadvantaged urban areas of housing projects and large immigrant populations.

    Amid the unrest after Nahel’s death, such nonspecific language has ranged from supportive to insulting. Nanterre’s mayor, Patrick Jarry, spoke on Monday of the suburb “in all its diversity.” A statement last week by a large police union, the Alliance Police Nationale, described the rioters as “vermin.”

    Of course there’s racism in France, some people said.

    “For example, if your parents come from another country, even you are poorly accepted,” said Stella Assi, a 17-year-old born in Paris who was passing by the city hall in Nanterre. “If I were white, that wouldn’t happen.”

    The National Consultative Commission on Human Rights in its annual report to the government this week said racism is still “largely estimated and largely under-reported.”

    France’s legacy of colonialism, largely in Africa and the Caribbean, plays out in some attitudes that continue generations later. More recently, migration has caused debate and division. The result is a government that openly addresses certain issues around race, but not necessarily in relation to its citizens’ daily lives.

    On Wednesday, for example, a court in France is scheduled to review a request for reparations for the descendants of enslaved people. And on a notice board in Nanterre, now scrawled with graffiti saying “Cops, get out of our lives,” a city hall announcement from May advertised a ceremony commemorating the abolition of slavery.

    Ahmed Djamai, 58, the president of an organization in Nanterre that connects youth with work opportunities, recalled being stopped by police recently and asked for his residence permit. He was born in France.

    “Our second-, third- and fourth-generation children face the same problem when they go out to get a job,” he said. “People lump them together with things that happen in the suburbs. They’re not accepted. So, to date, the problem is social, but it’s also one of identity.”

    The stunning procession of hundreds of men who walked from a mosque in Nanterre to the cemetery for Nahel’s burial stood out in France not only because many were Black or Arab, but because even the demonstration of religious identity can be sensitive. In addition to being officially colorblind, France is officially secular, too.

    Some people with immigrant roots fear that France’s success stories of generations of assimilation under that policy are being lost amid the rioting and criticism.

    Gilles Djeyaramane is a municipal councilor in Poissy, a town west of Paris. His French-born wife is of Madagascan origin. He was born in French Guiana, of parents from India, and moved to France when he was 18.

    “I’m always saying to my children, ‘Your mom and dad would never have met if France didn’t exist,” he said. “I’m not at all utopian. I know there’s work to do in some areas. But we are on the right path.”

    Those who knew Nahel, and some who identify with him, said it’s not fair to pretend that differences, and discrimination, don’t exist. With anger, some pointed out that a funding campaign for the family of the police officer accused of shooting Nahel already topped 1 million euros ($1.09 million).

    The frustration and violence in many communities come from other issues as well, including the rising cost of living and policing in general. In 2021, Amnesty International and five other rights groups filed a class-action lawsuit against the French state alleging ethnic profiling by police during ID checks.

    Dozens of organizations and political parties are calling for “citizens’ marches” on Saturday across France to call for police reforms, saying that long-running tensions between officers and the people are part of a history of “systematic racism that runs through society at large.”

    Police officers reject accusations that some single out people because of their color. Officer Walid Hrar, who is of Moroccan descent and Muslim, said that if it sometimes seems that people of color are stopped more than others, it’s a reflection of the mixed-race density of populations in disadvantaged urban neighborhoods.

    In rural France, with fewer people with immigrant backgrounds, police also stop people but “they are called François, Paul and Pierre and Jacques,” Hrar said.

    But Mariam Lambert, a 39-year-old who said Nahel was a friend of her son, stressed the pressure of feeling that she and others, including fellow Muslims, had to muffle their identity.

    “If I put a scarf on my head … they would see me as from another world, and everything would change for me,” said Lambert, who thinks she would be insulted in the streets. She spoke on the margins of a gathering at Nanterre city hall as events were held there and across France on Monday in support of authorities and a return to calm.

    Lambert mused about moving to Morocco if France doesn’t change. “There are plenty of people leaving,” she said. “Because who protects us from the police?”

    John Leicester and Nicolas Garriga contributed to this report from Paris.

    ​ Orange County Register 

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    Some Federal Reserve officials wanted to raise interest rates last month
    • July 5, 2023

    By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER | AP Economics Writer

    WASHINGTON — Some Federal Reserve officials pushed to raise the Fed’s key interest rate by one-quarter of a percentage point at their meeting last month to intensify their fight against high inflation, though the central bank ultimately decided to forgo a rate hike.

    In a sign of growing division among the policymakers, some officials favored a quarter-point increase or said they “could have supported such a proposal,” according to the minutes of the June 13-14 meeting released Wednesday. In the end, the 11 voting members of the Fed’s interest-rate setting committee agreed unanimously to skip a hike after 10 straight increases. But they signaled that they might raise rates twice more this year, beginning as soon as this month.

    In Fed parlance, “some” is less than “most” or “many,” evidence that the support for another rate hike in June was a minority view. And some who held that view were likely unable to vote at the meeting; the 18 members of the Fed’s policymaking committee vote on a rotating basis.

    Though last month’s vote to keep rates unchanged was unanimous, it is relatively uncommon for the central bank to stipulate in the minutes of Fed meetings that some officials had disagreed with the committee’s decision.

    Overall, the minutes echoed previous comments from Chair Jerome Powell that the Fed will likely keep raising rates this year, with a hike at its next meeting in three weeks considered highly likely.

    “Barring any surprises, the Fed will likely increase rates in July after the hawkish pause in June,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial.

    Twelve of the 18 members of the rate-setting committee have projected at least two more rate hikes this year, according to the members’ projections released last month. Four envisioned one more increase. Just two officials foresaw keeping rates unchanged.

    Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, suggested in remarks last week that he had supported keeping rates unchanged last month. Bostic is not currently a voting member.

    “I believe we are just now beginning to see signs that the cumulative effects” of the Fed’s rate increases — the fastest in four decades — “are showing up in the real economy,” Bostic said.

    “We are making progress on reducing inflation,” he added.

    Many of his fellow Fed officials, though, don’t agree. The policymakers who had favored a rate hike last month felt that “there were few clear signs that inflation was on a path to return” to the Fed’s 2% objective anytime soon, the minutes said. The decision to forgo an increase left the Fed’s key rate at about 5.1%, the highest level in 16 years.

    At the same time, a majority of officials signaled that they expect to raise rates twice more this year — once more than had previously been expected. In their quarterly economic projections, the policymakers also forecast higher inflation and modestly stronger growth than they had envisioned in June. Those upward revisions are a sign that the economy has been more resilient than Fed officials have expected.

    The Fed’s aggressive streak of rate hikes have made mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and business borrowing increasingly expensive.

    Many economists described the message from last month’s Fed meeting as a blurry one. On the one hand, the central bank chose not to raise borrowing costs. And Powell said at a news conference that the Fed was slowing its rate hikes to allow time to assess their impact on the economy.

    On the other hand, the officials’ forecast for two more rate hikes suggested that they still believe more aggressive action is needed to defeat high inflation. And Powell has said more rate hikes are likely this year.

    Speaking at a panel discussion with other top central bankers last week, Powell suggested that “the bottom line is that (interest rate policy) hasn’t been restrictive enough for long enough.”

    Most other central banks in developed countries are taking a similar approach. ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey indicated last week that they expect to keep interest rates high for an extended period. They spoke on the same panel as Powell.

    Some economists expect the Fed to raise rates at every other meeting as it seeks to pull off a difficult maneuver: Raising borrowing costs high enough to cool the economy and tame inflation yet not so high as to cause a deep recession.

    Powell has said that while a hike at every other meeting is possible, so is the prospect that the Fed might decide to raise rates at consecutive meetings. Economists and Wall Street traders consider a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in three weeks to be all but assured.

    The Fed’s staff economists have continued to forecast a “mild recession” for later this year, though they also said the possibility that the economy will continue to grow slowly was “almost as likely” as a downturn.

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    Subway restaurants now slicing meat at the counter
    • July 5, 2023

    Subway is making a big change to its meats, adding freshly sliced deli meat to roughly 20,000 US locations beginning Wednesday.

    The move marks Subway’s biggest change in two years when it began refreshing menu options, ingredients and restaurant appearances to boost once-sagging sales and make itself an attractive acquisition target.

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    Subway has struggled in recent years as competition in the industry has ramped up, and the staid brand has fallen out of favor with customers. As part of its turnaround effort, the company added customization to its menu – a feature many rivals have popularized – which helped lift sales nearly 8% at American stores last year. Subway doubled down on pushing orders to its app, which helped digital sales. Fresh-sliced meat is another step in that direction, although the payoff remains to be seen.

    Around 80% of stores will display the $6,000 slicers prominently (space permitting) near the deli counter with most of the meat sliced several times a day, including turkey, pepperoni, roast beef, ham and salami. That’s a major shift from Subway’s previous method of slicing meat at its factories and delivering it to stores.

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    In addition to boosting freshness, slicing cold cuts at its stores brings the chain in-line with methods at its smaller competitors like Jimmy John’s, Jersey Mike’s Subs and Firehouse Subs, all of which have been growing their store counts in recent years. That’s in sharp contrast to Subway, which has closed roughly 7,000 locations since 2016.

    Subway locations currently fresh slice vegetables and freshly bakes bread and cookies daily. Adding freshly sliced meat “felt like the natural step that we needed to get back to and address,” Trevor Haynes, president for Subway’s North America operations, told CNN.

    Cheese, steak and rotisserie chicken will still be delivered pre-sliced.

    To promote the changes, Subways is rolling out four new sandwiches that highlight the new slicer, including turkey, garlic roast beef, ham and “The Beast,” which features pepperoni, salami, turkey, ham and roast beef on Italian bread.

    A year ago, Subway unveiled its most extensive makeover in the company’s nearly 60-year history. The makeover placed less of an emphasis on customization in favor of a “Subway Series” sandwich menu, which now accounts for 20% of sales. Digital growth is also a bright spot for the company, with sales made through its app or third-party services doubling compared to 2021.

    Average yearly sales at Subway US restaurants, however, are much lower compared to its sandwich business rivals. Data from QSR Magazine reveals that its three rivals pull in about $1 million per unit, with an average Subway location raking in less than $500,000.

    Still, privately held Subway said it had a record-setting year in 2022 with sales at its North America stores that have been open at least a year rising 7.8% last year compared to 2021. Sales also exceeded projections by more than $700 million, but the company didn’t reveal specific numbers.

    Subway is also up for sale, with Haynes saying that it’s “on track” for an imminent announcement, likely in mid-July.

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    ​ Orange County Register 

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