Dodgers midseason report: Offense can’t conceal serious pitching concerns

• July 13, 2023

FIRST-HALF REVIEW

HOW THEY GOT HERE: The Dodgers haven’t reached the All-Star break with fewer wins than their current 51 since 2013 when they were .500 (47-47) at the midsummer pause. But they got there with at least a share of first place in the division for the seventh time in the past nine full seasons. They didn’t do it with pitching this year. They have had the lowest staff ERA in the majors the past four seasons, no lower than fifth since 2014. But this year’s 4.50 mark ranks 23rd. Injuries have played a large factor. Seven starting pitchers have been or are on the injured list – Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Noah Syndergaard, Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot – forcing the Dodgers to turn to rookies Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone with mixed results. An offense carried by four All-Stars – Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and J.D. Martinez – has made up for it by averaging 5.55 runs per game (second in the National League) and hitting 149 home runs (second in the majors). While rookies Miguel Vargas and James Outman have struggled, role players Jason Heyward and David Peralta have been positive additions.

SECOND-HALF PREVIEW

KEYS TO SUCCESS: It certainly looks like the Dodgers’ offense will need to continue carrying them. Betts (26 home runs and a .965 OPS, third in the majors) and Freeman (a .320 batting average and .952 OPS) are having MVP-level seasons. It would help to get more from Max Muncy (21 home runs but a .198 average) and Outman (NL Rookie of the Month in April but just a .205 hitter with a .595 OPS since) to help lengthen the lineup. The Dodgers could probably make the playoffs limping along with the sub-standard pitching staff they currently have. But their goals are annually higher – a division title and a deep playoff run – and that might require a midseason makeover of the pitching staff.

BIGGEST CONCERN: If it isn’t already clear – it’s the pitching staff. As the starting rotation stands now, it’s hard to envision who would start a Game 3 in the playoffs behind Kershaw and Urias. Would it be Gonsolin, who has resembled last year’s All-Star only in his affection for cats? Would they go with a rookie, Miller or Sheehan? The shortcomings of the starting rotation – only five teams have gotten fewer innings from their starters (although one is the AL-leading Tampa Bay Rays) – have exacerbated the struggles of the bullpen. Daniel Hudson’s return was supposed to stabilize that group. After three appearances, he was back on the IL and the relief corps seems far from October-caliber.

TRADE POSSIBILITIES: A month ago, Andrew Friedman said this about the possibility of trade acquisitions, “I feel very confident that with the depth of our system that we can be in any conversation we want to be in.” Those conversations will almost certainly center on pitching, pitching and more pitching – and maybe a right-handed bat to make up for the lack of contributions from Vargas, Chris Taylor and Trayce Thompson. But who will they have those conversations with? The addition of a third wild card in each league has made it easier for teams to fool themselves into thinking they are in contention, thus muddying the waters of the trade market. In the American League, for example, 11 teams reached the break within five games of a playoff spot. Of the teams currently clearly out of contention, the St. Louis Cardinals could make Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks or Geovanny Gallegos available. The Chicago White Sox could offer up Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito or Kendall Graveman. And then there is the big prize – Shohei Ohtani. The injury-depleted Angels could change everything about the trade market – and potentially their future – by making Ohtani available.

SCHEDULE: As usual, the Dodgers have been an outstanding team at home. Their 29-16 record at Dodger Stadium is topped only by Tampa Bay and the Atlanta Braves – the two teams that reached the break with the best records in each league. But the Dodgers have been mediocre on the road, posting a .500 record (22-22) and losing series to inferior teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates, Cardinals and Kansas City Royals. If the NL West race continues to be close, it might not be decided until the final week of the season. The Dodgers will spend that on the road in Colorado and San Francisco.

Related Articles

​ Orange County Register 

Manhattan Transfer’s ‘last concert ever’ will be Dec. 15 in Los Angeles

• July 13, 2023

The jazz vocal group Manhattan Transfer will perform what is being called its “last concert ever” Dec. 15 at Walt Disney Concert Hall in Los Angeles.

That description appears in a news release from the venue, which is the home of the Los Angeles Philharmonic Orchestra, and the Manhattan Transfer’s official website describes it as a final concert.

The four-part harmony group was founded in 1972 and has won 11 Grammy Awards. It is known for the songs “The Boy From New York City,” “Operator” and “Java Jive” as well the 1985 album “Vocalese.”

The lineup includes original members Janis Siegel and Alan Paul; Cheryl Bentyne, who joined in 1979; and Trist Curless, who replaced late founder Tim Hauser in 2014.

The group is currently in Europe on a “50th Anniversary and Final World Tour.” It will return to the United States next month.

According to its website, it will perform three concerts at the SFJazz Center in San Francisco, Sept. 29-30, and once in the Haugh Performing Arts Center at Citrus College, Glendora on Oct. 1.

The Manhattan Transfer was added to the LA Phil’s 2023-24 season in late May. Tickets are currently available by subscription. Individual tickets will go on sale Aug. 22.

Information: laphil.com

Related Articles

​ Orange County Register 

Tony Thurmond makes a pointless run for governor after many years as a failed politician

• July 13, 2023

Although the election to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom still is more than two years away, the field to replace him already is getting crowded.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and former Controller Betty Yee announced their campaigns for governor months ago.

The latest to join them is Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, who said he is “seriously considering” a run at the top state job. But he’s going to have a hard time explaining the state’s sharp decline in test scores since he was elected in 2018 – even as per-pupil K-12 spending has soared above $23,000 per student.

He tweeted in his announcement he was focusing on “taking on MAGA extremists who want to ban books” and “defending classroom teachers and students against the constant assault on our democracy.”

Thurmond certainly seems to have the talking points of a Twitter-addicted-Democrat down. But to anyone of even slight political sophistication, Thurmond’s substance-free talking points mask his record of abysmal failure.

Thurmond failed to lead when Newsom and school officials allowed aggressive school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. As late as April 30, 2021, according to an EdSource analysis, 55% of students were still learning, or not learning, at home. For low-income students, the number was a staggering two-thirds.

Predictably, resulted in sharp declines in learning and by extension test scores. A December 2022 analysis by the Public Policy Institute of California of 2022 scores found “the share of fourth graders meeting state standards fell from 42% pre-pandemic to 33% in math and from 48% to 42% in English Language Arts.”

A generation has been devastated academically on the watch of Tony Thurmond.

“I can’t think of one single thing he did to improve education in California as superintendent,” said Lance Christensen, who lost to Thurmond in the superintendent’s race last November and now is the vice president of education policy and government affairs at the California Policy Center. “Fight MAGA? California is owned by the public-employee unions and the environmentalist groups. MAGA has no standing in California when it comes to governing.”

Related Articles

Christensen said the only 2018 campaign promise Thurmond kept was “kneecapping charter schools.” Indeed, after growing rapidly for 30 years, charter school enrollment under Thurmond’s tenure stagnated at 11% of enrollment statewide.

Thurmond also came under fire in 2021 for hiring Daniel Lee, a buddy from his Philadelphia social-worker days, as the Department of Education’s superintendent of equity at $179,832 a year, without posting the job for others to apply. Lee also still lived in Philadelphia and “has a separate job there,” Politico reported. That report led to Lee’s resignation in December 2021.

All of this said, we believe this is a unique opportunity for Thurmond, whom we found to be a pleasant candidate during our interview with him last year. Thurmond could, for example, finally lead on education in California and be a voice for the majority of Black and Latino parents who support school vouchers in California. Thurmond could, if he cared about underserved students failed by the K-12 government school system, use his bully pulpit the next two years to advocate for school choice, including backing Arizona-style universal school vouchers, to help students get out from under a failed and failing system.

Otherwise, his candidacy and his time in public service is utterly pointless.

​ Orange County Register 

‘Stranger Things’ returns to Universal Studios’ Halloween Horror Nights

• July 13, 2023

Universal Studios Hollywood will bring season four of the popular Netflix sci-fi thriller “Stranger Things” to life during its annual Halloween Horror Nights seasonal event.

The walk-thru attraction will bring guests back to Hawkins, Indiana, where they’ll come face to face with perhaps the scariest villain in the series yet, Vecna. He’s hell-bent on destroying the barrier that exists between the real world and the Upside Down. The maze-like attraction will put those who dare to enter right in the middle of the action and supernatural terror that the television characters Eleven, Max, Eddie and the others experienced.

Patrons will find themselves in the crosshairs of Vecna’s attacks as they venture through familiar scenes from the show including the Hawkins Lab, the Creel House and Vecna’s lair. After facing their biggest fears and the creatures that lurk in the shadows, they’ll have to escape Vecna or live in the Upside Down, cursed forever.

“From the opening shots of ‘Stranger Things 4,’ episode one, we knew this was meant to be an experience at Halloween Horror Nights,” said John Murdy, executive producer of Halloween Horror Nights at Universal Studios Hollywood.

Halloween Horror Nights runs select evenings from Sept. 7 through Oct. 31. So far, the Universal City theme park has revealed that there will also be attractions based on the “Last of Us” video game, which went on to become a popular TV series on HBO earlier this year, and a maze based on the USA and SyFy series, “Chucky.” Additional maze announcements will be made in the coming months.

All ticket types are on sale now including general admission starting at $74, Universal Express starting at $209, Universal Express Unlimited starting at $249. After 2 p.m. Day/Night combos are $149-$329, the new separate Early Access Ticket, which provides access to select haunted houses before the event opens starting at 5:30 p.m., starts at $10, R.I.P. Tours start at $379, Frequent Fear passes start at $209 and Ultimate Fear passes start at $329.

All tickets can be purchased at universalstudioshollywood.com.

​ Orange County Register 

No deal on Hollywood actors contract, strike vote will be held Thursday morning

• July 13, 2023

LOS ANGELES — The union representing film and television actors says no deal has been reached with studios and streaming services and its leadership will vote on whether to strike later Thursday.

The Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists said early Thursday that its decision on whether to join already striking screenwriters will be considered by leadership at a meeting later Thursday.

The actors’ guild released a statement early Thursday announcing that its deadline for negotiations to conclude had ended without a contract. The statement came hours after this year’s Emmy nominations, recognizing the best work on television, were announced.

“The companies have refused to meaningfully engage on some topics and on others completely stonewalled us. Until they do negotiate in good faith, we cannot begin to reach a deal,” said Fran Drescher, the star of “The Nanny” who is now the actors’ guild president.

The group representing the studios, the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, said it was disappointed by the failure to reach a deal.

“This is the Union’s choice, not ours. In doing so, it has dismissed our offer of historic pay and residual increases, substantially higher caps on pension and health contributions, audition protections, shortened series option periods, a groundbreaking AI proposal that protects actors’ digital likenesses, and more,” the AMPTP said in a statement.

It added that instead of continuing to negotiate, “SAG-AFTRA has put us on a course that will deepen the financial hardship for thousands who depend on the industry for their livelihoods.”

If the actors strike, they will formally join screenwriters on the picket lines outside studios and filming locations in a bid to get better terms from studios and streaming giants like Netflix and Amazon. The actors’ guild has previously authorized a strike by a nearly 98% margin.

Members of the Writers Guild of America have been on strike since early May, slowing the production of film and television series on both coasts and in production centers like Atlanta.

Issues in negotiations include the unregulated use of artificial intelligence and the effects on residual pay brought on by the streaming ecosystem that has emerged in recent years.

Actors have joined writers on picket lines for weeks in solidarity. An actors’ strike would prevent performers from working on sets or promoting their projects.

Whether the cast of Christopher Nolan’s film “Oppenheimer” attends Thursday’s London premiere hangs in the balance of whether the actors strike.

Attending a photo event on Wednesday, star Matt Damon said that while everyone was hoping a strike could be averted, many actors need a fair contract to survive.

“We ought to protect the people who are kind of on the margins,” Damon told The Associated Press. “And 26,000 bucks a year is what you have to make to get your health insurance. And there are a lot of people whose residual payments are what carry them across that threshold. And if those residual payments dry up, so does their health care. And that’s absolutely unacceptable. We can’t have that. So, we got to figure out something that is fair.”

The looming strike has cast a shadow over the upcoming 75th Emmys. Nominations were announced Wednesday, and the strike was on the mind of many nominees.

“People are standing up and saying, ‘This doesn’t really work, and people need to be paid fairly,’” Oscar-winner Jessica Chastain, who was nominated for her first Emmy Award on Wednesday for playing Tammy Wynette in “George & Tammy,” told the AP. “It is very clear that there are certain streamers that have really kind of changed the way we work and the way that we have worked, and the contracts really haven’t caught up to the innovation that’s happened.”

Hollywood strikes

‘We’re fighting against our extinction,’ striking writers ready for long battle
Actors could join writers on picket lines as SAG-AFTRA calls for strike vote
Tony Awards telecast make inclusive history and puts on quite a show despite Hollywood strike
Hollywood writers strike enters second day as picketers march outside studios
Why Hollywood writers are striking – and how dispute will impact your viewing options

​ Orange County Register 

Why homebuying slumps: 3.5% median mortgage rate

• July 13, 2023

“Numerology” tries to find reality within various measurements of economic and real estate trends.

Buzz: The median rate on all existing first mortgages across the nation is 3.5%.

Source: My trusty spreadsheet looked at the meaning of this stunning number, which was provided by the mortgage tech and data provider Black Knight.

Fuzzy math: That means homeowners sitting on a 3.5% mortgage rate lost 33% in borrowing power in today’s 7% market.

Topline

The Federal Reserve’s cheap-money policies of the early pandemic era, used to keep a locked-down economy in gear, were the gift that killed the housing market.

Think about how much you can borrow with a $2,000 monthly house payment this year, as the Fed fights inflation with rate hikes.

At today’s 7%, you’d get $301,000 for 30-years. Current owners, with their median 3.5% mortgage rate, got $445,000. So a typical owner would have to find $144,000 just to meet the mortgage they presently have on their home.

That’s what rising rates do: slash how much one can borrow for the same payment. In this case, it’s one-third less – and that’d be true no matter how big of a payment you could afford.

Details

Consider the pickle for many mortgaged households, which can’t easily move because loan rates have roughly doubled.

Owners who managed to land a 3% mortgage would be hit with a 37% loss of buying power if they replaced the current mortgage with a 7% loan. And, according to Black Knight data, 30% of all mortgaged homes have first mortgages at or below 3%.

Next, ponder owners with 4% mortgages. They face a 28% loss of buying power. Black Knight says 66% of all mortgages are at or below this rate.

Owners paying 5% face a 19% loss of buying power. (85% of all mortgages are at or below this rate.) Even owners at 6% face a 10% loss of buying power (just 7% of all mortgages are at or above this rate).

Bottom line

The Fed’s high-rate policies throttled house hunting. Homebuying nationwide hit a lethargic 4.3 million annual pace in May, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Just how slow was that?

37% below the pandemic’s high of 6.85 million in November 2020.
20% below the 5.38 million average of pre-pandemic 2015-19.
And the last time it was slower was in 2010, long before the coronavirus hit.

Few can make today’s mortgage finances pencil out. Black Knight found that for June, with 30-year rates at 6.67%, homebuyers are facing a record-high $2,258 monthly payment for a loan on a median-priced U.S. home — and that’s with 20% down.

That June payment also claims 35.7% of the US median household income, the second-least affordable month in the past 37 years. (The worst affordability, by the way, was 36.7% in October when rates last topped 7%.)

Looking back, affordability in the ugly days of the Great Financial Crisis was 33.1%. So yes, the pandemic era has produced a truly historic affordability crisis.

So what might fix this financing imbalance, according to Black Knight’s researchers?

“It would take a 30% drop in home prices to get back to normal affordability, or, alternatively, if prices stayed the same and rates fell to 5%, it would take 19% income growth to get us back to normal.”

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com

Leaving California?

What states are the safest places to live?
Here are the healthiest states to consider
States with the strongest job markets
What state is the best bargain?
36 reasons why California’s so darn expensive
A 2022 guide to what state is best to move to
A 2021 guide to what state is best to move to

Related Articles

​ Orange County Register 

Tens of thousands of doctors in England start ‘longest’ strike in health system’s history

• July 13, 2023

By PAN PYLAS

LONDON — Britain’s state-funded health care service is facing what is being described as its longest-ever strike as tens of thousands of doctors in England launched a five-day walkout over pay on Thursday.

So-called junior doctors, those who are at the early stages of their careers in the National Health Service in the years after medical school, started their latest strike at 7 a.m., with many of them making their case for a 35% pay rise in picket lines outside hospitals across England.

The British Medical Association, the doctors’ union, has asked for a 35% pay rise to bring junior doctors’ pay back to 2008 levels once inflation is taken into account. Meanwhile, the workload of England’s 75,000 or so junior doctors has swelled as patient waiting lists for treatment are at record highs in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

“Today marks the start of the longest single walkout by doctors in the NHS’s history, but this is still not a record that needs to go into the history books,” said BMA leaders Dr Robert Laurenson and Dr Vivek Trivedi.

They urged the British government, which oversees health policy in England, to drop its “nonsensical precondition” of not negotiating while strikes are in progress.

The government, which is facing an array of strikes by public workers across many sectors, is standing firm to its position that it won’t negotiate while the strikes are taking place.

“This five-day walkout by junior doctors will have an impact on thousands of patients, put patient safety at risk and hamper efforts to cut NHS waiting lists,” said Health Secretary Steve Barclay. “A pay demand of 35% or more is unreasonable and risks fuelling inflation, which makes everyone poorer.”

Britain, like other countries, is grappling with high inflation for the first time in years. Price rises were first stoked by supply chain issues resulting from the pandemic and then by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent energy and food prices soaring. Though inflation has come down slightly from its peak to 8.7%, it remains far above the 2% level the Bank of England is tasked to target.

The doctors’ strike will cause huge disruption for the already embattled NHS, with operations and consultations postponed or even cancelled.

Dr Simon Steddon, chief medical officer at Guy’s and St Thomas’s hospital trust in south London, urged both sides to get back to the negotiating table amid concerns over the impact on patients.

He said that 55,000 appointments and nearly 6,000 planned procedures have already been cancelled or rescheduled at the hospitals he oversees as a result of previous strikes.

“Thousands more will need to be cancelled over the next couple of weeks adding to the significant delay, inconvenience and the inherent risk of further delay to diagnosis and treatment,” he added.

The doctors taking the strike action say they know the impact of their walkout on the health service, but insist that they have been left with no alternative.

“This isn’t a celebration, this is years of declining pay, declining conditions, frustration, and this is what has culminated as a result,” Alex Gibbs, a striking 31-year-old doctor said outside University College Hospital in north London.

Related Articles

​ Orange County Register 

Pilot says he escaped serious injury by jumping into the ocean when a New Zealand volcano erupted

• July 13, 2023

By ROD McGUIRK 

CANBERRA, Australia — A helicopter pilot said in court on Thursday he and two of his passengers had escaped serious injury by jumping into the ocean when a New Zealand volcano erupted in 2019, killing 22.

Another two of pilot Brian Depauw’s joy flight passengers did not make it to the water, were engulfed by a cloud of hot ash from the White Island eruption, and suffered serious burns.

Belgian-born Depauw, who speaks with an Irish accent, testified at the Auckland District Court on Thursday in the trial of three tourism companies and three directors charged with safety breaches over the Dec. 9 disaster.

“The water is what saved us,” Depauw told the court.

Depauw and his four German passengers were among 47 people on White Island, the tip of an undersea volcano also known by its Indigenous Maori name, Whakaari, when superheated gases erupted. Most of the 25 survivors were severely burned.

FILE – Plumes of steam rise above White Island off the coast of Whakatane, New Zealand, on Dec. 11, 2019, following a volcanic eruption on Dec. 9. Tourists received no health and safety warnings before they landed on New Zealand’s most active volcano ahead of a 2019 eruption that killed 22 people, a prosecutor said Tuesday, July 11, 2023. (AP Photo/Mark Baker, File)

Depauw, who currently lives in Canada, said he had only been working for tour operator Volcanic Air for three or four weeks and was making his first unsupervised flight with the company the day the volcano erupted.

He had told his passengers, two German couples, during safety instructions: “If you see me run — I always kind of make a joke — follow me as well.”

When the volcano erupted, the passengers wanted to return to the helicopter, but the pilot decided the water was a safer option.

“I heard my customer saying should we run now? I looked behind me and saw the plume going up 1,000 or 2,000 feet (305 or 610 meters) high, I saw boulders and debris arcing toward us, so I said: ‘Run, run, run to the water. Follow me,’” Depauw told police in a video statement recorded three days after the eruption and shown to the court on Thursday.

Depauw and one of the couples crossed the 150 meters (492 feet) to 200 meters (656 feet) to the water before they were overtaken by ash.

“The minute I hit the water, it went black. The ash came and obviously hit us and I couldn’t see anything,” he said.

“It would be a minute or two minutes. I was underwater trying to hold my breath as long as I could until I saw some light through the ash,” Depauw added.

He then helped his two passengers who had avoided burns to a boat. The man had lost his glasses and the woman’s contact lenses were scratched by the ash cloud so both had difficulty seeing.

The couple that didn’t reach the water were “burnt quite badly,” Depauw said.

Court photographs showed Depauw’s helicopter was blasted by the force of the volcano off its landing pad and its rotors were bent.

Under questioning by prosecutor Steve Symons on Thursday, Depauw said he had thought there would be warning signs before the volcano erupted. He had not known at the time that the volcano had erupted as recently as 2016.

“The way I understood it was there would be some signs and some time to vacate the island” if the volcano was about to erupt, Depauw said.

He said his only injuries had been a cut knee, a pulled back muscle and some temporary ash iritation to his eyes.

The island’s owners, brothers Andrew, James and Peter Buttle; their company Whakaari Management Ltd.; as well as tour operators ID Tours NZ Ltd. and Tauranga Tourism Services Ltd. have pleaded not guilty to all charges.

Other tour operators have pleaded guilty and will be fined at a later date.

Each of the companies faces a maximum fine of 1.5 million New Zealand dollars ($927,000) while each of the brothers charged faces a maximum fine of NZ$300,000 ($185,000).

The trial, scheduled to run for 16 weeks, was adjourned on Thursday and will resume on Monday.

Related Articles

​ Orange County Register