The Audible: The Lakers’ ‘daddy,’ an improbable World Series and a QB dilemma

• October 26, 2023

Jim Alexander: As the NBA season began Tuesday night, we were reminded of one indisputable fact: Every fan base in the Western Conference hates the Lakers. Always have, always will. Even Seattle, which hasn’t had a team since … checks notes … 2008 – I’m guessing those folks hate the Lakers, too. (Maybe they’re getting prepared for when they get another team, which hopefully will be soon.)

So the “Who’s Your Daddy” chants at the end of the Nuggets’ convincing opening night victory Tuesday in Denver, playing off a one-liner at last June’s parade, shouldn’t have been surprising. “Daddy 119, Lakers 107,” wrote columnist Sean Keeler in our sibling publication, the Denver Post, and I’m sure the good folks of Denver are going to savor this victory far beyond what Nuggets coach Michael Malone has in mind.

“There’s no statement win in the first game of the season,” Malone said, which isn’t quite the same as Bill Belichick’s famous “On to Cincinnati” dismissal, but you get the idea.

What I found interesting, though, was the way the Lakers apparently intend to use LeBron James. He played 29:01 according to the official box score, and indications are that they’re going to try to limit his minutes to no more than 30 per night during the regular season. Which makes sense for a guy who turns 39 on December 30, but they were outscored by 19 on Tuesday night when he was off the floor.

And, according to that official box score, Anthony Davis was a minus-17 for the evening. Which tells me that one of the superstars is pulling his weight and the other needs to pull harder. A lot harder.

Mirjam Swanson: Oh, for sure. It’s “Beat L.A.” everywhere outside of L.A. Which is a compliment, clearly.

And, yeah, seeing headlines today about LeBron’s “surprising” minutes limit. I don’t know what’s surprising about wanting to take it easy with your 39-year-old star in the regular season. I’m curious, though, if Coach Darvin Ham and the Lakers will be disciplined enough to keep to the plan as the season progresses. Because against the Nuggets, at least, it looks like they’ll need more of LeBron.

But the Nikola Jokic-led Nuggets are the defending champions and they played like it on ring night Tuesday in Denver. It’ll be easier to succeed without LeBron doing heavy lifting against some other teams – but maybe not so many other teams, not in what could be a wild Western Conference.

If the Lakers are serious about playing it safe with his workload, it’s going to be hard on lots of nights to stick with it – and if you’re a fan, to watch the Lakers stick with it.

Especially if A.D. isn’t, as you said, pulling more weight. He went scoreless in the second half on Tuesday, when he missed all six of his shots after halftime. Pretty apparent: He’ll need to be more aggressive and more involved in the offense when LeBron’s off the court – but it isn’t as though he’s facilitating the offense, ala Jokic, so his Lakers teammates and coaches will have to help with that too.

This was just one game, of course, and the Lakers will have time to work through this plan, yeah, yeah, yeah. But Tuesday’s opener rang pretty hollow considering all the talking the Lakers did about Denver’s talking leading up to it. Including Davis.

Recall his comments at media day about the Nuggets’ banter: “It’s very motivational. I mean, obviously KCP is my guy so you kind of congratulate him, like ‘you got this one.’ But it was just a lot of like, the talking, and ‘the Lakers’ daddy,’ there was just so much of that going on it was like ‘all right, we get it, y’all won.’ But me and Bron had some conversations like ‘we can’t wait.’”

Well, now they’ll have to wait until Feb. 8 for another shot at shutting up Denver.

Jim: Jokic is the best player in the world, period, and assuming good health the Nuggets are still the best team until proven otherwise. That said, the Phoenix Suns will be in town to play the Lakers on Thursday night, and they seem to be Denver’s biggest threat in the West. They got off to a solid start Tuesday night by beating the Warriors in San Francisco. Devin Booker had 32 points, six rebounds, eight assists and a steal, and he’s capable of being the difference-maker any time Kevin Durant has an off night or even a slightly off night.

My picks right now in the West: 1. Denver, 2. Phoenix, 3. Golden State, 4. Lakers, 5. Clippers, 6. Memphis, 7. Minnesota, 8. Dallas, and New Orleans and OKC also qualifying for the play-in rounds. But feel free to forget them by midseason.

Mirjam: Been thinking about this too! Here’s what’s gonna happen in the West: 1. Denver, 2. Phoenix, 3. Lakers, 4. Sacramento, 5. Clippers, 6. Oklahoma City in the playoffs proper. The wild cards: Dallas, Golden State, Minnesota and Memphis. Don’t forget that I called it! Haha.

Anyway, what a World Series pairing, huh?

Jim: Here’s a set of odds that we probably wish we would have taken advantage of months ago: Before the season began, an Arizona-Texas World Series was a 965-1 longshot, according to one of the many online oddsmakers who flood our inboxes.

This is an incongruous World Series between teams that lost 100-plus games as recently as two years ago and, in Arizona’s case, was buried in the NL West standings at midseason. I’m sure that Fox executives are wondering how they’re going to make the best of a matchup that is not only unexpected but doesn’t figure to have much juice with the casual fan.

That said, do Dodgers fans root for the team that beat them in the National League Division Series – losing to the World Series champion would make it sting a little less, for sure – or do they root for former Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager and the Rangers (and, not incidentally, former divisional foe Bruce Bochy)?

And here’s another angle for Dodger fans to keep in mind: If the Rangers were to win this thing, would it make Clayton Kershaw more or less likely to finish his career at home in Texas rather than coming back to L.A.? Or will we ultimately find out that his shoulder is in bad enough shape that it’s time to walk away from the game, period?

Mirjam: Great questions. Complicated questions – especially the rooting-interests conundrum in this case: Root for the guy who you used to root for or for the chance to say, hey, at least my team lost to the team that won it all?

Brought on largely by a get-in-and-get-hot crapshoot of a playoff format that’s as unpredictable as it is frustrating for fans of clubs like the Dodgers.

I don’t mind the unexpected matchup, personally. Not going to knock it because the headliners checked out early. Not going to worry about network ratings. The teams who played the best got there. That’s it.

As for Kershaw? Obviously, that’s a lot for him to think about. But surely Dodgers fans want him back in blue next season. That’s not complicated.

Not like who’s starting at quarterback for UCLA.

How’s that for a transition?

Jim: Well played. Or else we can say Coach Chip Kelly’s rotation is just as scrambled as was that of Manager Dave Roberts – a Bruin alumnus, incidentally – by the end.

I must confess, I stumped for Dante Moore to win the starting quarterback job because of the talent level he possesses. But the transition from high school ball in Detroit to the Pac-12 – especially this season’s Pac-12, going out with a roar – turned out to be far tougher than I think Moore might have expected.

And I think at this point it makes perfect sense to go back to the veteran, Ethan Garbers. I scoffed at the idea of using multiple quarterbacks early in the year, and I’m still not a big fan of it. But you’ve got to go with the guy who you feel gives you the best chance to win. The dilemma here is making sure Moore understands that this isn’t punitive, it’s part of the learning process, and if he sticks with it he’ll have plenty of opportunities to succeed in Westwood.

The alternative, of course, is that he’ll bolt to the transfer portal at season’s end. Ain’t college free agency wonderful?

Mirjam: The learning curve for most true freshmen, even one as talented as Moore, is steep and sharp and scary. There’s just not much that replicates the speed and impact of big-time college football. Even in college practices, quarterbacks don’t get hit. So until you’re on the field and Utah’s defensive linemen are hunting you, you can’t know how you’ll respond until you’re forced to respond.

That said, I would have liked to see more of Moore last weekend against Stanford – an unsuspenseful 42-7 Bruins victory – so that he could get some of those all-important game reps against a defense that’s not as fearsome as Utah’s or Washington State’s. Because that was, to me, the point of playing him so soon – getting him game experience this year so he’s ready in the future. And if he had played better against the Cardinal, it would have helped his confidence too.

Yes, Garbers got the job done – 20 for 28 for 240 yards and two touchdowns through the air – and now we’ll see whose number (or numbers?) Kelly calls this weekend against Colorado before what’s expected to be a sold-out Rose Bowl.

He told reporters at practice that Kent State transfer QB Collin Schlee will be available after being injured in the Oregon State loss – a game in which he came on as the Bruins’ change of pace, a breath of fresh air. And he made a notable impact (six carries for 80 yards) before exiting.

Against Colorado (which lost to Stanford), I’d send Moore back out there. As much as he’s struggled, I hope Kelly finds spots to keep getting him those all-important game reps this season, even against elite Pac-12 competition. Especially if the Bruins fall further back in the conference standings.

Not necessarily because I think Moore will bolt in free agency, but because he’ll be better for it next season in the Big Ten – and the Bruins will get only the one chance to make a first impression.

But I think we’ll again see a mix of quarterbacks against Colorado. And I’ll say this: Whoever is throwing passes for UCLA on Saturday, it’s going to be great fun to watch college football in a full Rose Bowl (albeit the tarp-covered version of “full” – approximately 67,000 fans as opposed to the 94,000-plus the venue hosts for its annual New Year’s bowl game), the Deion Sanders effect in full effect.

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​ Orange County Register 

More Lemon Park murals being restored in Fullerton

• October 26, 2023

By Jessica Benda,

Contributing Writer

The restoration of two Fullerton murals is nearly complete, and now officials are scouting funding to restore more of the murals in the Lemon Park area.

“The Town I Live In” and “Brown Car” are among the most visible of the nearly 50-year-old murals, most of which are painted on a pedestrian bridge on Lemon Street north of Orangethorpe Avenue. Local artist Drew Stirdivant started restoration of those two in early August and this week was close to finishing.

Six murals date back to 1978, when teacher David Whalen and local students painted them as part of a local youth project. Renown local muralist Emigdio Vasquez Sr. added two more in the ’90s with the help of at-risk youth. The panels draw from the Mexican-American heritage that is predominate in the surrounding community.

Prior to the current restorations, the last mural to receive a touch-up was “Niños del Mundo” in 2019, restored by Emigdio “Higgy” Vasquez Jr., son of Vasquez Sr. With the latest double-mural restoration, the project is nearly at the halfway point.

The eight-mural endeavor carries a $10,000 to $20,000 price tag per mural restoration, officials estimated. Councilman Ahmad Zahra, who included attention to the murals as part of his 2018 campaign, has been spearheading recent fundraising efforts.

“After things settled down after the pandemic, there was really no funding from the city for anything like this, so I decided to raise the funds independently,” Zahra said. “We set up a special donation link and special accounts for the murals through the city, which people could donate directly into.”

Community efforts totaled $12,000 for the current restoration, including hefty donations from the Orange County Employee Association, Fullerton Firefighters Association, Fullerton Police Officers Association and a local barber shop.

But for some murals, restoration is impossible. Decades-long neglect has rendered the paint too damaged, now requiring recreations instead. This is the case with “Brown Car,” which is being recreated on a special canvas that makes it transportable in case of relocation. An outer layer will safeguard the mural from vandalism, which can be easily washed off without damaging the art’s integrity.

Stirdivant, a tattoo artist and painter of 18 years, said his connection with the murals is a close one. Not only was his wife one of the painters on “Niños del Mundo,” but he walked by them almost daily as he grew up down the street. They gave him a sense of belonging, he said.

“When I was growing up, it was like, ‘What are you doing over here? Get back to your area,’” Stirdivant said. “But those murals made me feel at home, like I wasn’t so alien, like I was accepted. It was like, hey, it’s not just me that’s here. There were people here before me.”

As for tending to the rest of the murals, the timeline primarily hinges on the funding, but Zahra said that logistics can be just as tricky. The money for the current murals was raised in summer 2022, but it took nearly a year to work out the agreements and other details.

Zahra has hopes that it won’t just be the completion of the murals that brings the community together — it will be the process.

Community involvement was already seen earlier this month, when elementary and high school students from the surrounding neighborhood came to assist with painting, bringing the project full circle with its educational origins.

“These kids are gonna grow up and say, ‘We worked on this,’” Zahra said. “I’ve met a lot of folks that are now my age who say ‘We were kids when we worked on this,’ and so now I’m hoping there’s a new generation that will be looking back someday.”

​ Orange County Register 

Mandy Patinkin has had enough darkness. He’s ready for fun at Costa Mesa show.

• October 26, 2023

As actor and singer Mandy Patinkin was reviewing setlists for his 2019 concert tour, he realized something. As much as he loved the songs he’d sung then, that selection wasn’t what he wanted to sing now.

“It was a bit darker because the times were a bit dark then,” Patinkin says. “It was a set that I really loved, but nonetheless it was dark. And then we went to sleep for three years for the pandemic.”

So Patinkin and pianist Adam Ben David went back to the drawing board.

“I said, ‘I don’t want to do what we did before,’” he says. “I really want to welcome us all back to the living. I want it to be fun for me and fun for the audience. So let’s put the other one in a drawer and let’s go over the 14 or 15 hours of material I have in my repertoire, and some new stuff as well.”

Patinkin and Ben David come to the Renée and Henry Segerstrom Concert Hall on Thursday, Nov. 2 on the Being Alive tour, which takes its name from the Stephen Sondheim song in the musical “Company.”

Patinkin is best known for his work on screen in films such as “Yentl” and “The Princess Bride” and television series such as “Chicago Hope,” for which he won an Emmy, and “Homeland,” for which he was nominated four times.

But his work on stage, especially in Broadway musicals, is even more acclaimed, earning a Tony Award for the original Broadway production of “Evita,” and two more nominations for “Sunday in the Park with George” and “The Wild Party.”

All of that, Patinkin says, is simple storytelling.

“What I do is tell stories,” he says on a call from his home in upstate New York. “I’m not the genius who wrote these wonderful songs, these gifted men and women from Sondheim to Queen to Randy Newman and, you know, Rodgers and Hammerstein, Irving Berlin, Tom Waits. The list goes on.

“They’re storytellers, and that’s what attracts me,” Patinkin says. “I’m very lyric-driven. I’m a story guy. I’m the mailman, I just deliver the mail.

“And it’s great comfort to me to be with company, so that I’m not alone listening to these stories.”

The medium is the mess

Patinkin knows you can go online and see which songs he’s been singing in concert this year. And he kindly asks you not to.

“I don’t like to say it because I do change my mind sometimes,” he says. “I change it literally during the concert on occasion. I don’t want people coming a long way, thinking, ‘Oh, I want to hear him sing that,’ you know. It says he was gonna sing X, Y and Z, and then you get there and he didn’t sing that.”

So just trust him, and enjoy whatever music he and Ben David end up performing, he asks.

“Nothing’s planned,” Patinkin says. “From the time I begin a song to the time the song ends, that part is rehearsed and we know that. But I don’t have, like, a set patter.

“You know, it’s a complete mess,” he says, laughing. “Other than when a song begins to when the song’s over. Then the mess takes over, then another song begins.”

So come, enjoy the music, and the time spent together in the theater, he says.

“We’re a gregarious species and we need to be together, not alone,” Patinkin says. “We’re not supposed to be sitting on the couch alone. You know, you can do that every now and then, but you do it all the time, you’re in the toilet.”

Life and light

Joseph Papp, the late theatrical director and producer and founder of the New York Shakespeare Festival and the Public Theater, was a father figure and close friend of Patinkin.

Patinkin was on the road singing when Papp died in 1991. But Patinkin’s wife, the writer and actress Kathryn Grody, spent time with Papp before his death and witnessed a moment that sticks with Patinkin still.

“Joe was laying on a couch at a friend’s house before he passed, just resting, and friends gathering,” he says. “And all of a sudden he sat up on the couch and everyone got quiet and leaned into him to see what he was going to say.

“He looked around the room, wide-eyed, she said, and he said, ‘I see life everywhere in everything.’ And then he laid back down, and soon after that, days later, I think, he passed on.

“That statement she shared with me, ‘I see life everywhere in everything,’ is a guidepost to my existence,” he says. “It is an action to be taken, looking for that life, fighting for that life and light, in good times and in bad.

“It is what I set out to do when I walk in front of a camera or microphone or an audience, whether it be a television show, a movie or play or a concert,” he says. “I’m looking to find that life in my loved ones, in my community, in my world.

“Sometimes it’s a challenge. But we’re better off when we’re doing it together.”

In the moment

It was thrilling to return to the concert stage in the fall of 2022, a reminder of his long-held feeling that if he could do only one of the things he does, it would be singing to live audiences.

“It’s immediate,” Patinkin says. “It’s in the moment that reflects in the Buddhist way. The moment in all our lives right there in the theater, whether somebody came in late, something happened or a phone rings. Everything’s about that moment, what’s going on in the world, what’s going on in our lives, our hopes, our dreams, our concerns.”

In a way, it nourishes him, fills his cup, and renews him.

“Back when it started, it was sort of like if there’s a certain food that makes you feel energized and alive, and you haven’t had it for a long time, you go like, ‘Oh my God, why wasn’t I eating that?’” Patinkin says. “There are things that you know are good for you.”

Just don’t forget them, he adds, offering an illustration.

“You go ballroom dancing once with another couple you know,” Patinkin says as an example. “You have the time of your life, and then like stupid (bleepin’) humans you never do it again. I mean, we’re like the dumbest people on the planet. Why don’t you do it again? It was so much fun.

“So literally, every now and then, I wake up and I realize, you know, this is fun,” he says. “This makes me feel alive. This makes me happy.”

Hope and light

Patinkin, who turns 71 in November, says at this point in his life his goals are simpler than they once might have been. No longer does he dream of iconic roles yet to be played. Things that make him feel good, like reading or singing to his 20-month-old grandson, are more important now.

Sharing hope and light with an audience, too.

“I want to be of service to my community, to my family, my children, my grandson, my friends, my audience,” Patinkin says. “And I have to say, ‘Well, what do they need? What can I do for them? How can I be helpful? Help me be of service in my prayers.’

“I don’t want it to be dark right now,” he says. “We need to be welcomed back. It needs to be fun. We’ve had enough dark times. We’ve had enough of being isolated and afraid of being next to another human being.”

This tour’s setlist – remember, no peeking – is planned to advance that cause.

“I really did set out to have a certain kind of feeling, which was not just songs that spoke to Mandy, but songs that made Mandy feel good about being alive,” Patinkin says. “Therefore, I hoped I would make my audience feel good because we listen to them together.

“They just go through,” he says. “I’m like a hose, you know, and hopefully the hose has some holes in it so I get a little of it, too.”

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​ Orange County Register 

Swanson: Clippers’ purported trade for James Harden is going nowhere fast – if at all

• October 26, 2023

LOS ANGELES — Harden to the Clippers.

Four little words that probably remind Clippers fans of that time they ordered something online – a new replica jersey, say – and waited and waited and waited for it to come … and maybe it did, eventually. Or maybe it didn’t. But there probably came a moment in that waiting game when they realized, you know what? They’d be OK without it, if it didn’t get delivered.

Just like NBA fans aren’t holding their breath waiting for this year’s Clippers team – Take 5 since Kawhi Leonard and Paul George teamed up together in L.A. – to win that elusive first NBA title, I hope they’re not holding their breath waiting to see Harden in a Clippers jersey.

Because, wisely, the Clippers aren’t going to give up a single asset more than they’re comfortable with, and apparently not the unprotected first-round draft pick, pick swap, and Terance Mann (along with salary cap filler) that the Philadelphia 76ers reportedly have asked for.

You can say they’re driving a Harden bargain.

Even though, by all accounts, the Clippers have been interested in adding the 10-time All-Star and former league MVP to a team starring three other Southern California-born talents. Even though, for the past few months, the Clippers have been in talks about what it would take to grant the regularly disgruntled 34-year-old point guard’s wish to come home to L.A.

The prospect of opening the Intuit Dome next season with a winner is big. Opening it with the winner would be huge. And Harden could help.

He averaged 21 points and 10.7 assists per game last season with the 76ers. What’s more: He’s durable, a big deal in Clipperdom, where injuries seem always to come at the most inopportune times. Also, imagine the peeved, motivated version of Harden they’d get. A man on a mission, he’d be playing for that next deal after his $35.6 million contract set to expire after this season.

Meanwhile, with the 76ers’ season opener Thursday against the Bucks in Milwaukee, Harden is starting a “ramp-up phase” toward playing again. After being away for 10 days, he rejoined the team this week but reportedly didn’t travel for either the opener or Game 2 in Toronto.

Harden has wanted to be traded since picking up his player option in June, apparently expecting to then be dealt to the Clippers. When it didn’t happen, he called out Daryl Morey as a “liar” in August and said as recently as Oct. 13 that there’s no chance of repairing his relationship with the 76ers’ president of basketball operations: “When you lose trust in someone, it’s like a marriage,” Harden told reporters. “You lose trust in someone, you know what I mean?”

He’s maybe most comfortable when he’s making things uncomfortable.

The Clippers, meanwhile, were looking comfy in their 123-111 season-opening romp over the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday night at Crypto.com Arena.

That they’d be interested in maximizing their window to win with Leonard and George could be leveraged, but they’re not desperate. They’re good.

They put on a show Wednesday like what fans imagined when Leonard and George first teamed up in 2019. Dunks and defense, unselfishness and joy. They set new season-opening franchise records for assists (36) and 3-pointers made (16 for 34) that – even against an inexperienced Blazers team – seemed like a good sign.

By the time the Clippers try to run their winning streak against the Lakers to 12 games on Nov. 1, they could be – should be? – 4-0, with games against Utah, San Antonio and Orlando next.

Also, Leonard and George are starting the season healthy at the same time for the first time in three seasons and for just the first time since they teamed up in L.A. With Wednesday’s win – after which Leonard reported: “I came out the game feeling good” – they’re now 97-46 in games they’ve played together.

They also have Russell Westbrook, for whom Crypto.com Arena – when it’s dressed up for Clippers games – might as well be a different dimension: All that tension that existed in the building last season when he was an ill-fitting part of the Lakers has dissipated and the love affair that began late last season between Westbrook and Clippers fans is alive and flourishing.

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On Wednesday, he was a game-high plus-30 in a game the Clippers led, at one point, by 30. His 13 assists were the most by a Clippers player in a season opener since Andre Miller in 2002.

He’s the ball handler the Clippers wanted, and the energizer they needed.

“He does a lot,” Leonard said. “He brings the energy, he comes in the game trying to get to the rim. It excites you and … gets you going.”

Things change quickly in the NBA, though, so maybe the price will be right later if Philadelphia reaches a breaking point. Or maybe the Clippers’ calculus changes when their schedule stiffens and if injuries catch up with them again.

Or not. Maybe there comes that moment when the Clippers realize, you know what? They wanted Harden, but they’ll be OK without him too.

​ Orange County Register 

US pending home sales bouncing off record low

• October 26, 2023

A gauge of pending US previously owned home sales unexpectedly rose in September but remained near the lowest level on record with affordability constraints and high borrowing costs keeping demand limited.

The National Association of Realtors’ index of contract signings increased 1.1% from a month earlier to 72.6, the group reported Thursday. In August, the gauge matched the lowest level in data back to 2001.

The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 2% drop in September.

“Despite the slight gain, pending contracts remain at historically low levels due to the highest mortgage rates in 20 years,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement. “Furthermore, inventory remains tight, which hinders sales but keeps home prices elevated.”

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The figures show the market for existing homes continues to struggle to find its footing. A surge in mortgage rates to around 8% is making it more difficult to finance home purchases. Moreover, many homeowners who locked in much lower borrowing costs in the past are hesitant to list their homes, suppressing inventory and keeping asking prices elevated.

As a result, buyers are now coping with record-low affordability, a scenario that is likely to persist in the near future as Federal Reserve officials reaffirm they will keep interest rates elevated for a long period as the economy stays resilient.

Compared with a year earlier, pending home sales were down more than 13% on an unadjusted basis.

The pending-home sales report is a leading indicator of existing-home sales given houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

The South, Midwest and Northeast posted increases in September pending home sales. Contract signings in the West, meantime, fell to a fresh record low.

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Why soaring rates? Just look at the bond market: 10-year yields hits 16-year high

• October 26, 2023

The interest rates on mortgages, credit cards and business loans have shot up in recent months, even as the Federal Reserve has left its key rate unchanged since July. The rapid rise has startled investors and put policymakers in a tough spot.

The focal point has been on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which underpins many other borrowing costs. The 10-year yield has risen a full percentage point in less than three months, briefly pushing above 5% for the first time since 2007.

This sharp and unusually large increase, alongside others, has sent shock waves through financial markets, leaving investors puzzled over how long rates can remain at such high levels “before things start to break in a meaningful way,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Société Générale.

So what’s going on?

Strong Growth and Stubborn Inflation

Initially, when the Fed first began to fight inflation, it was short-term market rates — like the yield on two-year notes — that rose sharply. Those increases closely tracked the increases in the Fed’s overnight lending rate, which rose from near zero to above 5% in about 18 months.

Longer-term rates, like the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields, were less moved because they are influenced by factors that have more to do with the long-term outlook for the economy.

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One of the most surprising outcomes of the Fed’s rate-rising campaign, which is intended to rein in inflation by slowing economic growth, has been the resilience of the economy. While shorter-dated rates are linked mostly to what is happening in the economy right now, longer-dated rates take greater account of perceptions of how the economy is likely to perform in the future, and those have been changing.

From June through August, the changes in the 10-year yield mirror changes in Citigroup’s economic surprise index, which measures how much forecasts for economic data vary from the actual numbers when they come out. Lately that index has been showing the economic data has consistently been stronger than expected, and as the outlook for growth has improved, long-term, market-based interest rates like the 10-year yield have risen.

A ‘Higher for Longer’ Rate Path

Better-than-expected jobs figures and consumer spending data is welcome news for the economy, but it makes the Fed’s role of slowing inflation trickier. So far, growth has held up as inflation has moderated.

But the resilience of the economy has also meant that price gains haven’t cooled as quickly as the Fed — or investors — had hoped. Bringing inflation fully under control may require interest rates to stay “higher for longer,” which has recently become a Wall Street mantra.

At the end of June, investors put a roughly 66% chance that the Fed’s policy rate would end next year at least 1.25 percentage points below where it is now, according to the CME FedWatch. That probability has since fallen to around 10%. This growing sense that rates won’t come down very soon has helped prop up the 10-year Treasury yield.

Deficits, Demand and the ‘Term Premium’

Usually, investors demand more — that is, a higher yield — to lend to the government for a longer period, to account for the risk of what might happen while their money is tied up. This extra return, in theory, is called the “term premium.”

In reality, the term premium has become a kind of catchall for the portion of yield that is left over after more easily measurable parts like growth and inflation are accounted for.

Although the term premium is hard to measure, the consensus is that it has been rising for a few reasons — and that’s pushing overall yields higher, too.

A large and growing federal budget deficit means that the government needs to borrow more to finance its spending. It could, however, be a challenge to find lenders, who may want to sit out the bond market volatility. As bond yields rise, prices fall. The most recently issued 10-year Treasury note from mid-August has already slumped nearly 10% since it was bought by investors.

“Until it is very clear that the Fed is finished raising interest rates, some investors are going to be less willing to buy,” said Sophia Drossos, an economist and strategist at Point72.

Some of the largest foreign holders of Treasurys have already begun to pull back. For the six months through August, China, the second-largest foreign creditor to the United States, sold more than $45 billion of its Treasury holdings, according to official data.

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And the Fed, which owns a large amount of U.S. government debt that it has bought to support markets during bouts of turmoil, has begun to shrink the size of its balance sheet, reducing demand for Treasurys just as the government needs to borrow even more.

As a result, the Treasury Department needs to offer a greater incentive to lenders, and that means higher interest rates.

What’s the Impact?

The ramifications go beyond the bond market. The rise in yields is being passed through to companies, homebuyers and others — and investors are worried that those borrowers could be squeezed.

Investors are parsing earnings reports for the latest read on how companies are coping with higher interest rates. Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted at the start of the week that investors have homed in on companies better prepared to weather any coming storm, avoiding companies “that are most vulnerable” to increased borrowing costs.

The rise in rates is weighing on stocks. As Treasury yields rose again Tuesday, the S&P 500 slipped 1.4%. The index has lost about 9% since its peak at the end of July, a drop that coincides with the run-up in yields.

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​ Orange County Register 

Lake Forest will host its first multicultural event next year

• October 26, 2023

Plans are underway in Lake Forest for an inaugural multicultural event that is slated to take place in the spring.

The City Council allocated $10,000 for the event during its Oct. 17 meeting, with plans for it to blossom into a yearly tradition for Lake Forest, councilmembers said.

While specifics about the type of event have not been finalized, some ideas floated during the City Council meeting included a Lunar New Year celebration, fundraisers or a general multicultural celebration that would include many backgrounds.

“We are a city that is growing, and I do think that we should celebrate the cultural differences we have to bring people together,” said Councilmember Scott Voigts.

The council voted 4-0 to establish an event — Mayor Doug Cirbo was absent — following a presentation from Nicole Houston, the city’s management analyst. The city has conducted research since June, she said, to determine a budget, one that could be expanded on if needed.

City officials looked at Buena Park and La Palma as examples, Houston said, examining what events they have held as well as their budgets.

La Palma’s event, Culture Fest, took place last year and included a festival, car show, parade, food trucks and live entertainment with a budget of just under $30,000. Buena Park hosted a similar event, Festival of Nations, with a similar budget that attracted many people from around Orange County, according to the presentation.

Lake Forest’s future event is expected to be held at the Civic Center, said city spokesperson Jonathan Volzke, which will allow the use of the courtyard as well as the Performing Arts Center to host booths and performances.

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“Lake Forest is already home to several signature events — from our annual Tree Lighting at the Civic Center to Concerts in the Park to our July 4 Parade — and we’re looking at the calendar to identify the right date, which will set our timelines for reaching out to potential participants,” said Volzke.

Lake Forest’s Community Services Division is taking the lead on the event, and the city is also compiling a work group to ensure it “presents a multi-faceted and entertaining event that will allow Lake Forest residents to appreciate the many cultures that make up our community,” Volzke said.

“I remember looking back to the Lake Forest City Council in 2014 and not seeing any diversity, but now, our council has diversity, and I think that is a reflection of where our city is currently at,” said Councilmember Benjamin Yu. “We have to start somewhere, and this is a great way to start. We begin at a smaller scale, and then we can go from there.”

Additional updates on the future event will come soon, said Volzke.

​ Orange County Register 

SCOTUS to put the administrative state under scrutiny

• October 26, 2023

The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear two cases that call into question so-called “Chevron deference,” a judicial doctrine that has enabled government agencies to greatly expand their power beyond the authority granted by Congress.

The cases are Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo and Relentless, Inc., v. Department of Commerce. Both nominally involve challenges to a rule promulgated by the National Marine Fisheries Service that required commercial fishermen to pay $710 per day for an at-sea monitoring program. The fishermen argued that a 1976 law, the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, did not authorize the service to create an industry-funded monitoring program.

But the issue the court has agreed to decide goes far beyond the fishing industry. The justices have chosen these cases to review whether it is now time to toss “Chevron deference” into the dustbin of history.

The Chevron doctrine dates to the Supreme Court’s 1984 decision in Chevron U.S.A., Inc., v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc. In that case, the justices created a legal test to determine when a court should defer to an administrative agency’s interpretation or decision. When an agency’s action was not unreasonable, and Congress had left the issue ambiguous, the justices said, a court should simply defer to the agency’s judgment.

What this has meant in practice was that administrative agencies themselves became legislatures, courts, judges and juries in cases of disputes over regulations and administrative interpretation and enforcement of them.

This has had an extremely wide-ranging impact and has given rise to what is sometimes called “the administrative state.” Where Congress did not legislate, administrative agencies felt empowered to jump in and create regulations that had the force of law, but without a vote by any elected official.

The Supreme Court already waded into this topic with its June 2022 decision in West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency, in which the justices said the EPA regulations that required the closure of coal-fired electricity plants went beyond what Congress had authorized. Citing the “major questions” doctrine, the court held that agencies may not adopt new rules or stretch existing rules in a way that’s transformational to the economy unless Congress has specifically authorized such a rule to address a specific problem.

Typically, if a business, state or local government or individual American wishes to challenge any rule of any federal agency, the challenge first goes through the agency’s own adjudication process. When all remedies are exhausted, the challenge may then be brought in court, but the courts have been required to defer to the agency’s judgment unless it is “unreasonable.” Challenging a rule or a ruling is a lengthy process, largely controlled by the agency itself, prohibitively expensive, and because of the Chevron deference doctrine, almost certainly destined to fail.

Administrative agencies have become a fourth branch of government, one that is largely run by civil servants who control policy but cannot be fired.

If Congress wishes to address climate change, pandemic prevention or any other issue, it can pass laws that authorize administrative agencies to adopt regulations for a specific purpose. But if Congress chooses not to do that, it is not appropriate for federal agencies to impose their own solutions to problems and force Americans to comply with their rules.

“Chevron deference” has enabled that practice, and it’s time for it to end.

​ Orange County Register