Superstar NFL QB Josh Allen pays $7.2 million for Dana Point house

• July 11, 2023

Buffalo Bills’ star quarterback Josh Allen is the owner of a 2,808-square-foot house in Dana Point’s guard-gated Monarch Bay.

According to a person familiar with the July 5 deal who asked not to be identified, the 6-foot-5-inch NFL player bought the house for $7.2 million, paying 4% less than the initial $7.5 million asking price.

The single-story beach house completed in 1962 and updated, sits on a flat, quarter-acre lot. It has four bedrooms, three bathrooms, and floor-to-ceiling glass walls.

Even as they extend the open, airy floor plan to the outside, the house is secure from prying eyes.

Large pavers cut a path to the front glass door inside the gated courtyard.

The foyer forks off to different areas of the home, including the dining room to the right. Behind the foyer is the family room with a black brick fireplace and built-in cabinets. The kitchen is small and streamlined.

A large lawn dominates the backyard, with ample room for a future pool or home expansion. As the listing reads, you can “enjoy this amazing beach home the way it is or design your future dream home.”

The Monarch Bay neighborhood surrounds a members-only beach club with resort-style amenities such as tennis and golf nearby.

Philip Immel and Ryan Immel of Pacific Sotheby’s International Realy held the listing. Andy Stavros of Douglas Elliman of California represented Allen.

Allen, 27, is among the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. In August 2021, he signed a six-year, $258 million extension that puts him under contract with the Bills through 2028. He is also an avid golfer.

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​ Orange County Register 

Home Run Derby: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. edges Randy Arozarena; Dodgers’ Mookie Betts struggles

• July 11, 2023

By RONALD BLUM AP Baseball Writer

SEATTLE — Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. joined Vladimir Sr. to become the first father-son duo to win the All-Star Home Run Derby, beating Tampa Bay’s Randy Arozarena 25-23 in the final round on Monday night.

Guerrero defeated Julio Rodríguez 21-20 in the semifinals after the Mariners star hit a record 41 in the first round in front of his hometown fans.

Batting against Blue Jays manager John Schneider, Guerrero was the last semifinalist to swing and the first finalist, setting a final-round record for homers to top the mark the New York Mets’ Pete Alonso set when he beat Guerrero 23-22 in 2019.

Vladimir Guerrero Sr. won the 2007 derby in San Francisco while with the Angels, beating the Blue Jays’ Alex Rios 3-2 in the final.

With Guerrero Jr. catching his breath while watching, Arozarena hit against Tampa Bay field coordinator Tomas Francisco. Arozarena started his final 30-second segment with 21 homers and had 23 with seven seconds left before hitting a line drive and a pop-up on his final swings.

“(Vladimir) obviously, the power that he has was incredible,” Arozarena said through an interpreter. “For me, I felt good going into that round. But also he was able to get a minute of bonus time. I only had the 30 seconds of bonus time. He did a great job.”

On a night when Rodriguez had the home crowd on its feet during his electric opening round and Dodgers star Mookie Betts proved his prediction that he had no chance, Arozarena had the most overall homers over the three rounds, 82 to Guerrero’s 72. Arozarena overcame Luis Robert of the Chicago White Sox 35-22 in the semifinals. Robert hit the longest drive of the night, a 484-foot shot to left in the second round. That topped the high of 476 feet by Barry Bonds in the 2001 derby in Seattle.

Trying to become the youngest Derby winner at age 22, Rodríguez knocked out Alonso, a two-time champion who hit 21. Rodríguez beat Texas’ Corey Seager 32-24 in the first round last year at Dodger Stadium, then knocked out Alonso 31-23 before losing to then-Washington Nationals outfielder Juan Soto 19-18 in the final.

Arozarena beat Texas’ Adolis García 24-17 in the opening pairing before a crowd of 46,952 at T-Mobile Park. García is the godfather to Arozarena’s daughter, and the two jumped into each other’s arms during warmups.

Robert knocked out Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman 28-27 in the opening round. Rutschman hit 21 left-handed, and the switch hitter then turned around to the right side and hit six more right-handed during a 30-second bonus round. From Portland, Oregon, Rutschman grew up attending Mariners games.

Betts spent most of the past two weeks downplaying his chances in the event, and he was prophetic.

Betts, whose 26 home runs this season is tied for the third-most in the majors at the All-Star break, had cautioned that he has never been much of a home run hitter in batting practice-style settings.

Guerrero hit 26 home runs to begin their first-round matchup, batting before Betts. The 5-foot-9 Betts hit 11 in the initial three minutes of his round, then none during the 30-second bonus to end his night.

“You’ve gotta pull the ball, you gotta hit in the air to the left. Do not go to center,” Dodgers teammate J.D. Martinez told Betts during his round.

“I don’t know how!” Betts responded.

Betts’ total was the lowest of the eight participants.

Guerrero was participating for the first time in four years. Four years ago at Cleveland, he hit 29 in the first round and 40 in the second, then lost to Alonso in the final.

Alonso was trying for his third title in four years. Seattle’s Ken Griffey Jr. is the only three-time winner, taking the title in 1994, ’98 and ’99.

Only three players have won the title at home: the Chicago Cubs’ Ryne Sandberg in 1990, Cincinnati’s Todd Frazier in 2015 and Washington’s Bryce Harper in 2018.

The Dodgers’ Mookie Betts hits during the first round of the All-Star Home Run Derby on Monday in Seattle. (AP Photo/John Froschauer)

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​ Orange County Register 

Angels star Shohei Ohtani’s free agency the buzz of the All-Star Game

• July 11, 2023

By TIM BOOTH AP Sports Writer

SEATTLE — At some point, Angels star Shohei Ohtani will entertain the idea of talking about his pending free agency, and what it could mean to the finances of baseball.

But that didn’t stop others from pondering what could happen this offseason when perhaps the most unique free agent in history hits the open market.

Kansas City catcher Salvador Perez and Toronto pitcher Jordan Romano both tossed out $600 million as a suggested number. Baltimore outfielder Austin Hays offered everything in his theoretical wallet.

Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman simply called him a unicorn with a price that can’t be quantified.

“He’s going to get a lot of money and he deserves it. There’s no other player out there like him,” Atlanta catcher Sean Murphy said Monday. “I don’t know what I would do if I was in the position of having to sign him, but he’s incredible.”

The biggest attraction of Tuesday’s All-Star Game is also the biggest prize this offseason. With Ohtani’s Angels contract ending after this season, the two-way star is the desire of everyone in baseball with a checkbook big enough.

But quantifying how much Ohtani deserves isn’t simple or straightforward. How does one create a number that considers his value as a pitcher and a hitter?

“I think when he first came over to Major League Baseball, a lot of people were really saying, ‘Hey, this guy’s gonna have to do one or the other. It’s really special the way you can do it right now, but how long can he do it?’” Philadelphia closer Craig Kimbrel said. “We’re still sitting here talking about him being best on both sides. It’s really fun to watch.”

Ohtani’s deal in free agency is likely to exceed anything baseball has previously seen in contract value, either in total over the life of the deal or average per season.

Whichever route Ohtani and his representatives at CAA choose, the winning suitor will be making a substantial financial commitment. The $426.5 million, 12-year deal signed by Angels star Mike Trout or the $360 million deal signed last offseason by New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge might look minor in comparison.

“As much money as I have. I’m giving him everything that I’ve got,” said Hays, the starting center fielder in Tuesday’s All-Star Game.

Ohtani was already going to get a staggering payday, but his performance during the first half of this season potentially added a little more paycheck. Ohtani hit the break with 32 homers and 71 RBIs, a 3.32 ERA and 132 strikeouts in 100⅓ innings, and a combined wins above replacement (WAR) of 6.0 per Fangraphs, the highest in baseball.

“As a fan of baseball, it’s just amazing to watch what he’s able to do,” Freeman said. “I know what it takes to be a hitter and how much work and preparation and mindset you’ve got to do to do that every single day. And this man, every five days, is pitching too. I don’t understand it. I don’t even know how to put a number on that. We’ll all find out together.”

Ohtani was swarmed by media on Monday and didn’t address any of the lingering unknowns of next season or the upcoming trade deadline, saying his focus is on helping the Angels win as much as possible.

Sandwiched in between the Ohtani circus and Seattle star Julio Rodríguez on the warning track of T-Mobile Park was Houston’s Kyle Tucker, having a terrific season in his own right.

“They get pretty much all the media and I just hang out here, so that’s kind of nice,” Tucker said.

Tucker has seen his share of Ohtani up close with the Astros and Angels both in the AL West. Tucker described playing against Ohtani as “fun, but tough at the same time.”

“Just that you’re facing Shohei, which is kind of fun,” Tucker said. “Whenever you have a very good pitcher out there on the mound that’s very competitive. It’s a little more fun.”

Fun is relative when it’s someone with the pitch arsenal of Ohtani. The same goes for any pitchers who have tried to find the gaps in Ohtani’s swing and avoid becoming part of his home run highlight reel.

“Every time he’s out there I’m trying to sneak a peek at him and watch him,” Boston closer Kenley Jansen said.

Dodgers catcher Will Smith might have summed it up best, noting that at age 29, Ohtani seems to be hitting his prime.

“It’s incredible what he’s doing,” Smith said. “He seems to keep getting better, which is more incredible, honestly.”

AP Baseball Writer Ronald Blum contributed to this story.

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​ Orange County Register 

Northwestern fires football coach Pat Fitzgerald amid hazing claims

• July 11, 2023

EVANSTON, Ill. — Northwestern fired football coach Pat Fitzgerald on Monday amid a hazing scandal that called into question his leadership of the program and damaged the university’s reputation after it mishandled its response to the allegations.

Fitzgerald’s dismissal completed a rapid fall from grace for the former All-American linebacker, the star of the 1995 Northwestern team that won the Big Ten and played in the Rose Bowl after years of losing. The 48-year-old Fitzgerald had been firmly entrenched at his alma mater, an annual fixture on any list of college coaches with the most job security.

“The head coach is ultimately responsible for the culture of his team,” Northwestern president Michael Schill wrote in an open letter to the university community. “The hazing we investigated was widespread and clearly not a secret within the program, providing Coach Fitzgerald with the opportunity to learn what was happening. Either way, the culture in Northwestern football, while incredible in some ways, was broken in others.”

Fitzgerald went 110-101 in 17 seasons as Northwestern’s head coach. He led the Wildcats to Big Ten West championships in 2018 and 2020, plus five bowl victories. But they went 4-20 over his last two seasons.

Schill wrote in his letter that Athletic Director Derrick Gragg will announce “the leadership for this upcoming football season” in the next couple of days. The team’s season opener is Sept. 3 at Rutgers.

“I recognize that my decision will not be universally applauded, and there will be those in our community who may vehemently disagree with it,” Schill wrote. “Ultimately, I am charged with acting in the best interests of the entire University, and this decision is reflective of that. The damage done to our institution is significant, as is the harm to some of our students.”

Gragg was hired by Northwestern in June 2021. He got the job after Mike Polisky stepped down amid mounting criticism because he was named in a sexual harassment lawsuit against the Big Ten school by former Wildcats cheerleaders.

Fitzgerald had been serving a two-week suspension after the school said Friday that an investigation by a law firm did not find “sufficient” evidence that the coaching staff knew about ongoing hazing – though there were “significant opportunities” to find out about it.

Schill, who was the president of the University of Oregon before taking over Northwestern in September, said in his Monday letter that the report from ArentFox Schiff will remain confidential. But he wrote that, during the investigation, 11 current or former players acknowledged the hazing within the program.

“The hazing included forced participation, nudity and sexualized acts of a degrading nature, in clear violation of Northwestern policies and values,” Schill wrote.

After Northwestern announced its suspension for Fitzgerald, The Daily Northwestern published a story on Saturday detailing allegations from a former player who described specific instances of hazing and sexual abuse. The report also indicated that Fitzgerald “may have known that hazing took place.”

That led Schill to write a letter to the university community in which he acknowledged focusing “too much on what the report concluded (Fitzgerald) didn’t know and not enough on what he should have known.” Schill went on to say that he planned to speak with university leadership, members of the board of trustees and leaders of the faculty senate to determine his next steps.

“Since Friday, I have kept going back to what we should reasonably expect from our head coaches, our faculty and our campus leaders,” Schill wrote in Monday’s letter. “And that is what led me to make this decision.”

Because the six-month investigation was confidential, Schill said in Monday’s letter that he learned many of the details recently. He spoke with the complainant on Sunday after talking to the student’s parents on Friday.

Fitzgerald, who was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame in 2008, was hired to coach his alma mater in 2006 after the sudden death of then-coach Randy Walker.

Many current and former players rushed to Fitzgerald’s defense after the suspension was announced.

A letter circulated on social media, signed by “The ENTIRE Northwestern Football Team” without identifying an author, said that “throughout his tenure, Coach Fitzgerald has consistently prioritized the well-being and development of his players, and we stand behind him in his unwavering commitment to our team.”

Before Fitzgerald’s dismissal was announced by the school, The Daily Northwestern published a report that had three former Northwestern players describing a “culture of enabling racism.”

The turmoil within the football program comes after the school unveiled plans in September to build a new Ryan Field. The plans call for a state-of-the-art facility featuring a reduced seating capacity and greater emphasis on the fan experience.

​ Orange County Register 

Sen. Janet Nguyen wants a spot on the OC Board of Supervisors again

• July 11, 2023

State Sen. Janet Nguyen is running for the First District seat on the OC Board of Supervisors — an entity she’s served on before.

And as far as goals go, Nguyen said she has many.

“I’m well aware that the Board of Supervisors can make a direct impact on quality of life, whether it’s crime, homelessness, cost of living, traffic congestion, health care,” Nguyen said in a phone interview.

Earlier this year, Nguyen was elected Senate Minority Caucus chair, a position which required her to lead floor operations, run caucus meetings and put together the Republicans’ agenda with Minority Leader Brian Jones of San Diego. She is the highest-ranking Vietnamese American elected official currently serving in California’s government, according to her office.

She has also served as a state assemblymember, Garden Grove councilmember and First District county supervisor.

“For the last several months I have heard from constituents and community leaders from throughout the First District who have urged me to return to the Board of Supervisors,” Nguyen said. “I share their frustration with the super-majority in Sacramento and its misguided priorities and have always believed that the most effective government is the one closest to the people.”

She describes her political philosophy as “conservative, compassionate and reflective” of those she represents in office.

Supervisor Andrew Do, who represents the First District and serves as vice chairman of the board, is term-limited.

Nguyen has already received support from Garden Grove Councilmember Stephanie Klopfenstein.

“Sacramento has proven to be incapable of fixing what’s wrong in California and the super-majority in the legislature is not interested in our problems here in Orange County,” Klopfestein said in a news release. “We need our best, brightest and most experienced problem-solvers working right here at home.”

Nguyen has been named “Legislator of the Year” by the American Legion, the Association of the U.S. Army and the Vietnam Veterans of America. She was also named “Champion of Manufacturing” by the California Manufacturers and Technology Association and “Elected Official of the Year” by the American Council of Engineering Companies.

While serving as a county supervisor in 2013, a grand jury report criticized Nguyen’s role at CalOptima, the county’s public health plan for low-income residents. The grand jury report noted CalOptima as a troubled organization that saw high executive turnover since Nguyen joined its board. However, Nguyen said she remedied an organization that she described as having been badly mismanaged before she joined its board of directors.

Nguyen and her family arrived in California in 1981 after fleeing Vietnam. A graduate of UC Irvine, she has lived in the district for more than 30 years and resides in Huntington Beach.

The race for the District 1 seat is heating up with Cypress City Councilmember Frances Marquez, former Assemblymember Van Tran and Westminster Councilmember Kimberly Ho also vying for the position.

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​ Orange County Register 

Building empathy and compassion through prison visits

• July 11, 2023

I vividly recall the sensation of sitting in a courtroom.  I was young, terrified, and just 16-years-old, and I was shackled both physically and emotionally. It remains etched in my memory how the prosecutor branded me a monster, someone beyond redemption, and deemed me worthy of a lifetime behind bars. At that moment, I viewed the prosecutor as a monster as well, an anonymous figure who knew nothing about me or my background except for my crime–the worst thing I’ve ever done. 

It never occurred to me that 30 years later I would be collaborating so closely with prosecutors. Today, I’m working with the Prosecutors Alliance of California to make sure that when District Attorneys across the state look across the aisle at those they’re seeking to hold accountable, that they don’t see monsters–they see people.  We’re working together to ensure District Attorneys know about the prisons they’re sending those they prosecute.  And together, we’re bringing about positive change within the criminal legal system.

In 1994, I was sentenced to 19 years to life in state prison. I would go on to spend 21 years of my life behind bars at Pelican Bay, eight of those years in solitary confinement. It was during this time that I embarked on a journey of self-reflection, striving to understand my actions, the pain I had caused, and the system that had condemned me. In this crucible of isolation, my perspective began to shift, and I realized the need for mutual understanding and empathy between those who prosecute and those who cause harm.

Today, as an advocate for reform, I am working on a transformative idea that might seem radical at first: taking prosecutors behind prison gates to meet with incarcerated people. In facilitating visits that immerse prosecutors in the reality of incarceration, we foster understanding, empathy, and compassion between those who broke the law and those that enforce it.

Prosecutors are entrusted with an immense responsibility: to uphold justice and protect society. However, to fulfill this duty effectively, they must not only comprehend the law and work to advance justice for victims, but also understand the individuals whose lives they influence. Unfortunately, prosecutors rarely know the backgrounds of defendants and most prosecutors have never stepped foot inside a prison. We hope to change that.

These visits offer an opportunity for dialogue between prosecutors and  incarcerated people, allowing for genuine conversations that transcend the barriers of judgment and stigma. Sharing stories, experiences, and perspectives can help humanize both parties, eroding the preconceived notions that often breed animosity and mistrust.

Empathy is the cornerstone of a fair and just legal system. Witnessing the resilience and personal growth that can occur within prison walls might challenge prosecutors’ assumptions about the potential for rehabilitation and reintegration. 

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Moreover, these visits expose prosecutors to the systemic flaws that perpetuate cycles of crime and recidivism. They witness the overcrowded cells, the lack of access to education and mental health resources, and the limited opportunities for redemption. People can and do change despite the shortage of programs and services in prisons, but they can undoubtedly get there sooner if prisons were adequately structured and resourced to actively foster rehabilitation. This first-hand experience can instill a sense of urgency and motivate prosecutors to advocate for necessary reforms within the criminal justice system.

The “monster” narrative perpetuated in courtrooms serves neither the pursuit of justice nor rehabilitation. Just as I embarked on a journey of self-reflection and growth behind bars, prosecutors can similarly evolve and embrace a more holistic view of the individuals they prosecute.

The path towards justice and safety lies in understanding the root causes of crime, addressing systemic issues, and promoting the rehabilitation of  incarcerated people. Prison visits can be a catalyst for this education, laying the foundation for collaborative criminal justice reform. Ultimately, to make better decisions about appropriate case outcomes, every prosecutor should be willing to see firsthand the places they send those they prosecute. 

Artie Gonzales is program director of the Prosecutors Alliance of California.

​ Orange County Register 

Cat’s disappearance near Disneyland sparks a 2-year tale of heartache and hope

• July 11, 2023

Michelle Chang thought the wind sound echoing through the car was just her imagination as she drove south on the 5 freeway toward Irvine. Her weekend duffel bag was in the trunk, alternative music filled the air and Coco, a Snowshoe Siamese, was resting atop her kennel as she approached Disneyland.

Chang was 21 and almost home, excited to surprise her mother with Coco’s visit on Mother’s Day weekend in 2021. The UC Santa Barbara graduate had taken the family’s beloved 8-year-old feline up north so she could have company during the pandemic.

As the sound persisted, Chang said she pulled up on the power window buttons to try to make the noise stop. When she turned around and looked where Coco had been perched, the cat wasn’t there.

“I quickly pulled to the side of the freeway,” she said. “I couldn’t find her. I was in panic mode.”

Chang called her younger sister, Sarah, who helped search along the freeway in the dark. The sisters said they half expected to find the cat alive in the bushes and half expected to see her dead on the freeway.

After weeks of the family searching — driving along the freeway and along Manchester Avenue where Coco most likely went missing, posting signs and checking the county’s deceased animal site  — the cat with striking blue eyes and white mitten feet, was nowhere to be found. Chang surmised Coco stepped on the window button and “flew out” of the car.

Kim Taylor, their mother, said each Mother’s Day has been bittersweet since. Her eccentric, smart, gentle cat who she taught to sit on command; who liked her ears scratched, but not her belly; and who hated people food, but loved kibble, was gone.

***

For two years Mercedes and Oscar Chavez of Grants Pass, Oregon, saved up money to take a family trip to Disneyland for their son Gabriel’s 15th birthday. They brought along their three other children, ages 16, 13 and 7, and one of Gabriel’s friends.

After arriving July 1 for their week-long vacation, the tribe of cat lovers noticed a paper plate on the ground at the Anaheim hotel they were staying at with remnants of dried cat food and then spied a cat “hunkered down, laying on her side near the air-conditioning unit,” Mercedes Chavez said. “She was panting because it was so hot.”

Chavez gave the cat water and inquired with hotel staff about the curious creature. She was given conflicting information. The cat lived at a trailer park next door. The cat was fine and being cared for by hotel guests who fed her eggs off the breakfast buffet. The cat was a stray and no one could catch her.

“But this didn’t sit right with me,” Chavez said. “I kept badgering workers trying to piece together the story. A real stray is apprehensive, but I could tell at one point she had a family because she was super gentle — meowing, rolling over, rubbing against our legs and letting us pick her up.

“She wanted help. She wanted love,” Chavez said.

When the cat tried to follow the family into their hotel room on their second night, Chavez said she burst into tears. “I told my husband that we need to get her to a safe place.”

In the meantime, Chavez went to Target and bought kibble and wet food, she said. “She went crazy and devoured it.”

Chavez then looked up cat rescue organizations. The first one she contacted told her they only spayed, neutered and released cats. But they provided a “huge list” of other places in Orange County that could possibly help.

Chavez contacted each of the approximately 20 organizations through email “any time I had the chance” between theme park fun, she said.

“They either auto replied saying they aren’t taking any more animals because they are at full capacity, or they wanted me to call at a specific time and then wouldn’t answer or I got busy signals,” she said. “It was almost impossible to get a live person to answer.”

Chavez’s logical sense thought, “I already have two cats and we can’t travel back to Oregon with five kids and a new cat.”

But her heart decided, “If we can’t get help, the cat will go home with us.”

***

On July 4, “by the grace of God,” Chavez said, Kindness2Cats contacted her. The organization run by Jenifer Brooks and Ed Michalek assured Chavez the animal would go to a good home. Chavez tearfully scooped up the kitty and put her in the portable crate Brooks had brought to the hotel.

“She didn’t fight it,” Chavez said. “I know she knew we were going to help her.”

A full checkup revealed the cat was microchipped. Her health was good, save for one broken tooth, and she was estimated to be 2 years old (She is actually 10).

Taylor was at work when the call came that her favorite pet was alive and well and found in the area the family had searched so many times. She showed the cat’s picture to co-workers and took the rest of the day off.

“I was stunned. I was over the moon. I had a happiness in me,” Taylor said after Coco was reunited with her daughters in Michelle Chang’s Irvine apartment.

At Saturday’s reunion, Coco slinked out of the same baby blue kennel that Chavez tearfully placed her in before saying goodbye.

Before acknowledging the sisters, Coco opened a closet and sat inside, hid behind a TV,  and jumped on the same gray couch she years ago had clawed. Then she found Alice, Chang’s other cat, hiding in a bedroom.

Michalek wondered if Coco might have dashed out of the SUV when Chang stopped and opened the door to search for her. He emphasized the importance of never letting a cat travel in a car without being in a carrier, and microchipping and spaying and neutering them.

Taylor said she is forever grateful to Chavez for all she did in reuniting the family and hinted that bake goods may be in Chavez’s future.

Taylor will soon be flying back from North Carolina to California for a reunion.

“I’m going to order pizza and sit with that cat.”

​ Orange County Register 

Ukraine war: Analysis shows Russia has lost nearly 50,000 soldiers

• July 11, 2023

By Erika Kinetz | Associated Press

BRUSSELS — Nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis of Russia’s war dead.

Two independent Russian media outlets, Mediazona and Meduza, working with a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University, used Russian government data to shed light on one of Moscow’s closest-held secrets — the true human cost of its invasion of Ukraine.

To do so, they relied on a statistical concept popularized during the COVID-19 pandemic called excess mortality. Drawing on inheritance records and official mortality data, they estimated how many more men under age 50 died between February 2022 and May 2023 than normal.

Neither Moscow nor Kyiv gives timely data on military losses, and each is at pains to amplify the other side’s casualties. Russia has publicly acknowledged the deaths of just over 6,000 soldiers. Reports about military losses have been repressed in Russian media, activists and independent journalists say. Documenting the dead has become an act of defiance; those who do so face harassment and potential criminal charges.

Despite such challenges, Mediazona and the BBC’s Russian Service, working with a network of volunteers, have used social media postings and photographs of cemeteries across Russia to build a database of confirmed war deaths. As of July 7, they had identified 27,423 dead Russian soldiers.

“These are only soldiers who we know by name, and their deaths in each case are verified by multiple sources,” said Dmitry Treshchanin, an editor at Mediazona who helped oversee the investigation. “The estimate we did with Meduza allows us to see the ‘hidden’ deaths, deaths the Russian government is so obsessively and unsuccessfully trying to hide.”

To come up with a more comprehensive tally, journalists from Mediazona and Meduza obtained records of inheritance cases filed with the Russian authorities. Their data from the National Probate Registry contained information about more than 11 million people who died between 2014 and May 2023.

According to their analysis, 25,000 more inheritance cases were opened in 2022 for males aged 15 to 49 than expected. By May 27, 2023, the number of excess cases had shot up to 47,000.

That surge is roughly in line with a May assessment by the White House that more than 20,000 Russians had been killed in Ukraine since December, though lower than U.S. and U.K. intelligence assessments of overall Russian deaths.

In February, the U.K. Ministry of Defense said approximately 40,000 to 60,000 Russians had likely been killed in the war. A leaked assessment from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency put the number of Russians killed in action in the first year of the war at 35,000 to 43,000.

“Their figures might be accurate, or they might not be,” Treshchanin, the Mediazona editor, said in an email. “Even if they have sources in the Russian Ministry of Defense, its own data could be incomplete. It’s extremely difficult to pull together all of the casualties from the army, Rosgvardia, Akhmat battalion, various private military companies, of which Wagner is the largest, but not the only one. Casualties among inmates, first recruited by Wagner and now by the MoD, are also a very hazy subject, with a lot of potential for manipulation. Statistics could actually give better results.”

Many Russian fatalities – as well as amputations – could have been prevented with better front-line first aid, the U.K. Ministry of Defense said in an intelligence assessment published Monday. Russia has suffered an average of around 400 casualties a day for 17 months, creating a “crisis” in combat medical care that is likely undermining medical services for civilians in border regions near Ukraine, the ministry said.

Independently, Dmitry Kobak, a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University who has published work on excess COVID-19 deaths in Russia, obtained mortality data broken down by age and sex for 2022 from Rosstat, Russia’s official statistics agency.

He found that 24,000 more men under age 50 died in 2022 than expected, a figure that aligns with the analysis of inheritance data.

The COVID-19 pandemic made it harder to figure out how many men would have died in Russia since February 2022 if there hadn’t been a war. Both analyses corrected for the lingering effects of COVID on mortality by indexing male death rates against female deaths.

Sergei Scherbov, a scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, cautioned that “differences in the number of deaths between males and females can vary significantly due to randomness alone.”

“I am not saying that there couldn’t be an excess number of male deaths, but rather that statistically speaking, this difference in deaths could be a mere outcome of chance,” he said.

Russians who are missing but not officially recognized as dead, as well as citizens of Ukraine fighting in units of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics, are not included in these counts.

Kobak acknowledged that some uncertainties remain, especially for deaths of older men. Moreover, it’s hard to know how many missing Russian soldiers are actually dead. But he said neither factor is likely to have a huge impact.

“That uncertainty is in the thousands,” he said. “The results are plausible overall.”

Asked by the Associated Press on Monday about the Meduza and Mediazona study, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said during a conference call with reporters he wasn’t aware of it as the Kremlin had “stopped monitoring” Meduza. Peskov also refused to comment on the number of deaths mentioned in the study, saying only that “the Defense Ministry gives the numbers, and they’re the only ones who have that prerogative.”

Meduza is an independent Russian media outlet that has been operating in exile for eight years, with headquarters in Riga, Latvia. In April 2021, Russian authorities designated Meduza a “foreign agent,” making it harder to generate advertising income, and in January 2023, the Kremlin banned Meduza as an illegal “undesirable organization.”

Moscow has also labeled independent outlet Mediazona as a “foreign agent” and blocked its website after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Dasha Litvinova contributed to this report from Tallinn, Estonia.

​ Orange County Register