How to mix your own potting soil for your container garden

• January 27, 2024

Container gardening is a very popular topic for Southern California gardeners. Most homes do not have a lot of gardening space, either because of tiny lot size or no lot at all (in the case of condos or apartments). Successful outdoor container gardening depends on using larger pots that are slower to dry out, less likely to tip over, and give the plant’s roots enough room to grow.

Large containers need a lot of potting soil and this can get expensive if you purchase bags of ready-made planting mix. Making your own potting mix can save money as well as allow customization. The internet has a wealth of recipes for potting mixes appropriate for any type of plant. All the recipes call for many of the same ingredients, just mixed in different ratios.

Here is an overview of the most common ingredients and what they do. Once you know this, you can customize your own planting mix.

A good planting mix should be compressible (enough to enable the plant to remain upright), hold water and nutrients, allow for aeration and drainage, and be free of pathogens, weed seeds, and herbicide contaminants. 

A common recommendation is to sterilize ordinary garden soil by baking it at 200 degrees Fahrenheit for 20 minutes. Not only is this inefficient, but it will make your house smell terrible. Don’t do this!

Sand is used in almost all the recipes I’ve found. Although it has no nutritional value, it will improve drainage and add weight to the container (which will prevent it from tipping over). Use coarse builders’ sand instead of finer types of sand.

Bark, particularly finely ground pine bark, holds water and can be used as a substitute for peat moss. It will gradually break down and this process will decrease nitrogen availability. If you use bark, add a nitrogen source such as blood meal.

Sphagnum moss or peat moss will increase acidity. We grow our blueberries in a peat moss-rich mix since they prefer a somewhat acidic soil. It also holds water but is light enough to drain freely.

Coir can be used as a substitute for peat moss and is commonly sold in highly compacted bricks. It is a byproduct of coconut processing and can be more expensive than peat moss. Unlike peat moss, it has a neutral pH. It takes time to rehydrate and should be rinsed several times due to the possibility of salt contamination.

Perlite is a sterile, neutral product obtained from volcanic rock. It improves drainage but holds water and can be used as a substitute for sand. It’s lightweight and looks like pulverized Styrofoam.

Vermiculite is derived from a mineral that has been heated in an industrial process. This heating causes the particles to expand into a fluffy, metallic-looking substance. It aids in drainage, holds water, and can add calcium and magnesium ions to the soil (which plants need).

Los Angeles County

[email protected]; 626-586-1988; http://celosangeles.ucanr.edu/UC_Master_Gardener_Program/

Orange County

[email protected]; http://mgorange.ucanr.edu/

Riverside County

[email protected]; https://ucanr.edu/sites/RiversideMG/

San Bernardino County

[email protected]; 909-387-2182; http://mgsb.ucanr.edu

​ Orange County Register 

Douglas Schoen: The risks of a second Biden term

• January 27, 2024

President Biden’s road to a second term may have become a touch easier on Tuesday night, as Donald Trump largely separated himself from any doubts that Nikki Haley would be the GOP nominee, and despite leading President Biden in recent national and swing state polls, Trump is likely the easiest candidate for Biden to beat in a general election matchup.

Thus, it is worth asking what risks lie ahead should Biden once again defeat Donald Trump. What would a second Biden term mean for our economy, foreign policy, and confidence in government?

With inflation and unemployment rates declining, there is speculation over whether or not Biden’s economy will stick the soft landing and avoid what experts once deemed an inevitable recession. As inflation has come down below 3%, the Federal Reserve’s next step will be cutting interest rates.

These much-anticipated rate cuts will likely take place this spring and summer and could fuel another inflation shock. However, Americans may not be able to feel the effects of this shock – or the recession it may cause – until one year into a second Biden term.

While inflation could come back under whoever our next president is, tax-and-spend policies favored by Biden and Democrats would fuel a surge of government spending, injecting large amounts of cash into an economy, causing inflation to read its ugly head once again.

Moreover, Trump’s promises to shake up the Fed and desire for American energy independence could keep a lid on energy prices, a major contributor to inflation.

Further, there are major international and foreign policy risks to a second Biden term. Biden is often perceived as a leader who ‘talks loudly but carries a weak stick’ as he has often done with Russia, China, and Iran.

There’s no question –  given the decline in his poll numbers which have never recovered – that an embarrassing withdrawal of American troops in Afghanistan gave rise to this perception of Biden, both at home and abroad. And while he’s had flashes of diplomatic and bipartisan success, such as leading a surprisingly united NATO through the first two years of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the continued conflicts in Europe, the Middle East, and most importantly, China-Taiwan, are just further examples of the geopolitical chaos that have marked Biden’s time in office.

Put another way, these conflicts would likely only get worse, especially as other leaders involved such as Presidents Xi and Putin, as well as Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei are not likely to depart their leadership posts anytime soon. Therefore, they would be well positioned to take advantage of a perceived weakened president whose moral clarity in speeches does not always match the ineffective policies he aims to implement abroad.

Closer to home, it remains to be seen whether or not Biden would be willing – or able – to take the much needed steps to securing the Southern Border, which is in utter chaos. And while Biden may not be as left-leaning on the border as many in his party, progressives would have more influence with Biden in office than Trump, reducing the likelihood that any comprehensive border or immigration reform is passed.

In that same vein, the administration’s inability to set up a well-respected, established team to handle foreign policy and the economy has left voters, regardless of party, skeptical about the advisors the president surrounds himself with.

To that point, on foreign policy, Biden’s national security team has been remarkably ineffective in preventing or ending the two major conflicts the U.S. is involved in – Ukraine and Israel-Hamas – nor has Biden been able to stop the war in the Middle East from spreading, as shown by America’s direct military intervention in Yemen.

And on the economy, it is not that Biden’s policies have necessarily been the issue, but rather how they are communicated to the American public, evidenced by his dismal 31% approval rating on the issue, per a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll.

Biden’s age and physical infirmities further reinforce fears that he will not make it through a second term, or be forced to step-aside, propelling Vice President Kamala Harris into the White House. This is a particular vulnerability for Democrats, given Harris’ dismal polling numbers, inexperience, and the likelihood that she will be even less feared and respected on the international stage than Biden.

Additionally, if Harris struggled as president, it would rob the party of its ostensible leader in 2028 and beyond.

For their part, Republicans will continue to hammer Biden on his age and declining mental cognition, tying it directly to a Kamala Harris presidency. While true that Democrat’s best shot to beat Donald Trump is incumbent-President Joe Biden who has done it once before, a race framed as being between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is sure to swing in the Republicans favor.

Ultimately, these risks, in particular the ones surrounding Harris, have contributed to the persistent speculation that a politician like California Governor Gavin Newsom is subtly trying to position himself as a ‘break the glass in case of emergency’ candidate.

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To be clear, Newsom himself has denied that this is the case, and it is virtually impossible to imagine that Democrats would be okay with Biden either replacing Harris as VP or quietly tapping Newsom as a successor, given Democrats’ fixation on identity politics. Alternatively, Newsom may be content to sit out 2024 and postpone the eventual showdown with Harris until 2028.

Importantly, this is not to say the potential risks of a second Biden term outweigh the risks of a second Trump term, as the former president has already vowed that he would use four more years in office to prosecute his personal feuds. Rather, it is to point out that while many people may see Biden as the “least risky” candidate in an election which two-thirds (67%) of Americans say they do not want, according to Reuters, there are still very real risks that we must acknowledge and be prepared to confront as a country, should Biden win.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.

​ Orange County Register 

OC Point in Time count raises basic questions about homelessness

• January 27, 2024

In a lot of ways, homelessness is such a complex issue that it’s hard to think about, much less solve.

Who qualifies as chronically unhoused? How many people like that are out there? What policy, or policies, might help one person get a roof over his or her head, or significantly reduce the broader problem for lots of unhoused people? None of the answers is easy.

But in one way – at least in one way expressed loudly this week by a man sleeping in an aging Mustang parked near a gas station in Costa Mesa – being unhoused boils down to a single word.

“Money,” he said.

“If I had more (money), I wouldn’t be sleeping in my car,” he added as he moved some toiletries (a bag with soap and shampoo; a toothbrush) into his back seat.

“I’m homeless because I don’t have enough money not to be.”

The 52-year-old man – contacted around sunrise on Tuesday, Jan. 23, by volunteers participating in the Everyone Counts, Point in Time survey, a once-every-two-years census of the unhoused that’s held in communities around the country – doesn’t want to disclose his name because of the stigma that comes with sleeping on the streets. (“Do you know how hard it is to get hired if somebody knows you don’t have a place to live?” he asked. “Not easy.”)

The man, a Marine Corps veteran, said he’s slept in his car for brief periods a few times over the past five or six years. But he doesn’t define himself as “homeless.” During that same period, he said, he’s attended school, worked as a computer installer and been a parent to his now adult children.

“I’m just stuck for this moment,” he said.

He also doesn’t fit many of the (fading) stereotypes about the unhoused. He’s not addicted. He’s not obviously mentally ill. He’s not fresh out of prison or chronically unemployed.

He doesn’t prefer sleeping in his car or otherwise outdoors.

Instead, he says, he’s “working, but still poor.” The pay he earns in his current full-time job (at a convenience store near a gas station) is low enough that he can only afford the cheapest, shared room in the cheapest apartment in high-priced Orange County. Such rooms, in such apartments, aren’t common. And if that’s what you can afford, and you wind up between dwellings – as the guy in the Mustang did in mid-January, following a verbal dispute with his former landlord – the next stop can be the streets.

“I have money to stay in a motel a couple nights,” the man said during a phone interview two days after he answered the survey.

“But if I did that I wouldn’t have anything for first-and-last (month’s rent). And I’ll need that if I can find anything I might be able to afford.”

While the details of the man’s story are unique, the basic spiral isn’t.

“One negative event can push some people out,” said Michael Shepherd, associate director of United to End Homelessness, an initiative of the Orange County United Way that focuses on housing people who are unhoused.

Shepherd and others who worked this year’s Point in Time count noted that social ills, such as drug or alcohol addiction, or mental illness, are common among people of all incomes. But people with less money have less breathing room when their troubles spiral, meaning the same episode of addiction or mental illness that might frustrate or endanger someone with a middle-class income can also push a convenience store worker into using his car as a home.

That precariousness isn’t lost on people struggling to find permanent homes.

In a 2023 report from the UC San Francisco Benioff Homelessness and Housing Initiative, based on questionnaires and interviews with about 3,200 unhoused people in California, 7 in 10 unhoused people said they would be able to find and keep stable housing if they were given a rental stipend of as little as $400 a month.

“I know $400 would help right now,” said the man who slept in his car.

“People will make the best (housing) decisions with the options they have at that time,” said Shepherd. “And money can expand those options or, if you don’t have it, limit them.”

But Shepherd, like others working to help the unhoused, suggested money is just one tool to help people who, local Mustang dweller notwithstanding, often are struggling with a broad range of problems.

The survey from UC San Francisco found several trends about the unhoused that, anecdotally, appeared to be mirrored on this year’s Point in Time count:

• Homeless people aren’t young. The median age of people who answered the UCSF survey was 47. Last year, local housing workers noted that the fastest-growing group of people seeking assistance from homelessness agencies in Southern California are people age 60 and older.

• Homeless people aren’t visitors. Nine out of 10 people who answered the UCSF survey were from California. Though it’s too early to say if that’ll be the case in this year’s Point in Time survey, past surveys have found most people sleeping in shelters or streets in Orange County are originally from this region.

• Homeless people often are victims of violence. Nearly 3 out of 4 (72%) of respondents in the UCSF survey said they’d experienced physical violence at some point in their lives and nearly 1 in 4 (24%) said they’d experienced sexual violence. Federal reports on homelessness have found similar patterns.

For all the new data that’s coming in about the unhoused – in everything from the UCSF report to surveys conducted this week by Point in Time volunteers – there’s a surprising lack of information about one big question:

Is homelessness becoming more common?

Public surveys on the question suggest people overwhelmingly believe it is. A poll conducted last year by UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology found that people in Orange County view homelessness as the county’s single most pressing problem. And a poll conducted last year by Quinnipiac, looking specifically at California voters, found that homelessness has grown to the point that it’s now the single biggest problem in the state.

But is it? Are more people homeless today than, say, five years ago? Data on that isn’t conclusive.

The Point in Time numbers for this year won’t be available for a couple months, when the 2024 total will include people who slept outdoors or in their cars on Jan. 22 as well as the number of people who spent that same night in shelter beds.

But Point in Time numbers from 2019 and 2022 (the count was delayed a year because of the COVID-19 pandemic) show the numbers of unhoused in Orange County fell by nearly 17%, from 6,860 to 5,718. Shepherd and others who work with the unhoused or in providing food assistance noted that the pandemic actually decreased some of the statistical evidence of poverty, because people were given cash stipends and eviction moratoriums were in place.

“Some Point in Time surveys taken last year, in some communities, show there was a big rise in the numbers,” Shepherd said.

Federal numbers show a slight uptick. A 2022 report from the office of Housing and Urban Development said that year’s Point in Time count, nationally, found 582,500 people around the county were unhoused, a jump of just 2,000 people from two years earlier.

On one hand, such numbers might not matter; it’s tough to say what number of homeless people, if any, is acceptable.

But Point in Time numbers are used by federal officials to determine how much money goes to any community to combat homelessness.

And other indicators about homelessness – including the number of people who die each year in Orange County with no known address – suggest the ranks of the unhoused are growing.

Shepherd, among others, said the inconclusive recent data on homelessness make this month’s Point in Time numbers particularly important.

“We have some counts from 2023 that show the numbers were rising. And we believe we know that the problem isn’t getting better. So that’s why we’re waiting to see what the ’24 count will be,” he said.

“Also, we’re trying to work with different data sets to see if there are different ways of counting.

“It’s complicated.”

​ Orange County Register 

Harry Shearer’s almost-lost art of political satire on ‘Le Show’

• January 27, 2024

Forty years ago last fall, I moved into a house so high up in the Altadena hills that it was on the last street before the Angeles National Forest. Among the other things I liked about the place, essentially a cabin, perfect for a young person just starting out in the world, was that, back when one actually listened to the radio on a radio, as opposed to streaming through one’s phone, the house was high enough that the remote signal from KCRW in faraway Santa Monica reached me in a straight line, coming in loud and clear on the Harmon-Kardon receiver of my stereo, whereas in Pasadena and the rest of the San Gabriel Valley down below, the sound was crackly, when you could get it at all.

That very year, in December 1983, the station launched a weekly radio show of political satire by the great Harry Shearer, briefly “The Voice of America,” renamed “The Hour of Power” until evangelist Robert Schuller objected, since that was the name of his own, religious, radio show, and thenceforth “Le Show” — dubbed, somehow, after the tiny, forgettable French automobile Le Car.

Every Sunday morning at 10, I tuned in, and I have been entranced ever since at that hour. As it happens, I had grown up in Altadena listening to Harry Shearer’s political satire on the radio when he was part of the comic Credibility Gap, first on AM’s KRLA, then on FM’s KPPC. They parodied then-Los Angeles Mayor Sam Yorty in a regular segment called “Just Plain Sam.” Just, as a child, I confused Los Angeles City Hall with the headquarters for The Daily Planet newspaper on the original television version of “Superman,” because the building’s image was used on the show as the paper’s HQ, so I confused the parodic version of the mayor with the real man, who, as a 13-year-old, of course I knew little about.

Now, down the decades, it sometimes seems that Shearer’s brilliant parodies of (almost) every president since on “Le Show,” from Ronald Reagan through Donald Trump, are more real in my memory than the actual presidents.

For Reagan, it was “Hellcats of the White House,” prominently featuring a regular segment in which First Lady Nancy for some reason had her elbows buffed with a sander belt. Then there was “41 Calls 43” (George H.W. Bush), “Clintonsomething,” a perfect parody of the hit TV show “Thirtysomething,” “43 Calls 41” (George W. Bush), “Father Knows Best” (the Obamas) and “The Appresidentice” (Trump as a character from his TV show “The Apprentice,” assigning weekly duties to underlings, fired for failing to live up to expectations.)

Shearer would often go back in time for his favorite character, Tricky Dick, even after he had died, with the ongoing-for-years segment, “Nixon in Heaven,” where the former president is attended to in the clouds by his lackey, H.R. Haldeman, still meddling with earthly politics from the clouds above us.

As I wrote 10 years ago at the 30th of “Le Show,” “The funniest moments in political satire today are when Shearer inhabits the former vice president in episodes of ‘Dick Cheney Confidential.’ In every single one, an unsuspecting chump, often a fellow Republican, is lured into the once and always veep’s underground bunker from which he still rules the world. And when the chump, even if it’s Mitt Romney, wants to compromise rather than go all-in on some conservative core issue, Cheney literally chokes him within an inch of his life until he cries ‘uncle.’”

Harry has chosen not to create a satirical world each week involving Joe Biden — though he’ll still occasionally give us a little Mar-a-Lago Trump. Seek out “Le Show” on your digital device of choice. It’s politics worth listening to.

Larry Wilson is on the Southern California News Group editorial board. [email protected]

​ Orange County Register 

What you need to know about California’s Proposition 1

• January 27, 2024

At Gov. Gavin Newsom’s insistence, proposed measures that were eligible to appear on the March 5 ballot were pushed to November so that just one, the one he’s backing, would have the ballot all to itself. However, it doesn’t benefit from close attention.

Proposition 1 would authorize $6.38 billion in general obligation bonds for the construction of mental health treatment facilities, as well as paying for housing for California’s burgeoning homeless population.

According to the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst, Proposition 1 has two major components related to mental health services, behavioral health services and homelessness. First, it would change the Mental Health Services Act that was passed by voters in 2004, altering how the money collected from the so-called “millionaire’s tax” can be used. Second, it seeks voter approval of a $6.38 billion bond to build (1) more places for mental health care and drug or alcohol treatment and (2) more housing for people experiencing homelessness.

The coalitions in support and opposition of Prop. 1 do not break down into the traditional conservative/progressive dichotomy. Although one would think that mental health advocates would be supportive, that is not universally true.

Gov. Newsom has invested a great deal of his political capital into Prop. 1. He pressured the Legislature not to put any other measure on the ballot.

Although the governor touts Prop. 1 as a “transformational” solution to mental health care and homelessness, it is anything but. The $6.38 billion will pay for only 6,800 beds in treatment facilities and fewer than 4,500 units of housing for the homeless, including homeless veterans, according to the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office. There are more than 170,000 individuals experiencing homelessness in California.

Here’s where the politics gets interesting. CalVoices, California’s oldest mental health advocacy agency, opposes Prop. 1 because it threatens existing mental health services. It requires the diversion of tax revenue away from county mental health programs and into state programs and housing instead. Counties will have to scramble for funds to continue current programs for mental health.

Overlooked in the debate over whether Prop. 1 will deliver the results it promises is the threshold issue of whether general obligation bond financing is even appropriate. It is not. Proposition 1 violates all the basic principles of sound bond financing, including the constitutional requirement that the money raised would be for a “single work or project.” Even worse is the lack of specificity as to where the money will be spent. Unlike a school bond where voters are given an inkling of how their dollars will be spent, Prop. 1 is contingent on legislative action.

Voters need to be aware of all bond proposals for several reasons. First, with interest, bonds typically cost way more than the amount approved at the ballot box. Second, there is an entire industry that thrives on bonds, including bond counsel, underwriters and wealthy individuals looking for tax-exempt investments. Third, even though state general obligation bonds do not come with a tax increase, they stress the general fund.

Finally, Prop. 1 appears to be nothing more than a political drill to give the governor cover for his unpopular handling of California’s homelessness crisis. But as he seeks a higher profile on the national political stage, this cover may prove to be little more than a fig leaf. Especially when one considers that, as mayor of San Francisco, Newsom promised in 2004 to find housing for all of the city’s chronically homeless residents within 10 years. How did that turn out?

Jon Coupal is president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.

​ Orange County Register 

Knott’s Berry Farm kicks off Peanuts Celebration with Camp Snoopy under construction

• January 27, 2024

Charlie Brown and the entire Peanuts gang have once again taken over all of Knott’s Berry Farm for a monthlong celebration while Camp Snoopy undergoes a massive makeover.

The 2024 Knott’s Peanuts Celebration kicks off on Saturday, Jan. 27 and runs through Feb. 25 with stage shows, live music, character meet-and-greets and themed food and merchandise at the Buena Park theme park.

ALSO SEE: Knott’s Berry Farm barn destroyed by fire was birthplace of historic attractions

The “It’s Your Life, Charlie Brown” musical takes over the Calico Mine Stage during the day with the Peanuts star facing the shock of his life on the game show “It’s Your Life.”

In the evening, Calico Mine Stage hosts “Snoopy’s Legendary Rooftop Concert” with the Jelly of the Month Club indie rock band headlining the musical event.

The James Street Trio pays tribute to Peanuts music created by the Vince Guaraldi Trio at the patio of the Boardwalk BBQ restaurant.

ALSO SEE: 10 former Knott’s rides and attractions we miss the most

Budding artists can learn to draw Snoopy, Woodstock and other characters in the Peanuts Sketch School in the Bird Cage Theatre. In between art lessons, the Bird Cage hosts Charlie Brown’s Trivia Challenge where you can test your Peanuts knowledge.

The Peanuts Cowboy Jamboree in Calico Park features Wild West-themed games hosted by Franklin and Linus. Pigpen’s Pig Pen in the Ghost Town Livery Stables offers a chance to meet a few animals and the messiest Peanuts character of them all.

ALSO SEE: Knott’s Berry Farm adding 4 rides in Camp Snoopy makeover

A Franklin-focused gallery exhibit in Calico Town Hall examines the pop cultural significance of the newspaper comic strip character created by Charles M. Schulz in 1968.

The Knott’s seasonal celebration features more than 30 Peanuts-inspired menu items found throughout the park — including a host of mac-and-cheese menu items paired with pancakes, waffle cones, funnel cakes and burritos.

Usually the annual Knott’s Peanuts Celebration is centered in Camp Snoopy — which features more than a dozen kiddie rides including the Peanuts-themed Pig Pen’s Mud Buggies, Linus Launcher and Charlie Brown’s Kite Flyer.

But this year Camp Snoopy is undergoing a major makeover set to debut Memorial Day Weekend 2024 that will add a new family coaster and super-sized kids swing and update an off-road rally race and miniature train ride.

ALSO SEE: Knott’s Berry Farm sets dates for 2024 festival lineup

During the overhaul, the Camp Snoopy Theater is being reoriented with the relocated stage facing the midway and a shade cover over new log-style seating.

The Peanuts Celebration is part of the Knott’s Seasons of Fun — with Knott’s Boysenberry Festival (March 8-April 28), Knott’s Summer Nights (June 14-Sept. 2), Knott’s Scary Farm (Sept. 19-Oct. 31) and Knott’s Merry Farm (Nov. 22-Jan. 5) on the calendar for the remainder of the year.

​ Orange County Register 

Aryna Sabalenka rolls to 2nd straight Australian Open title

• January 27, 2024

By JOHN PYE AP Sports Writer

MELBOURNE, Australia — Winning her first Grand Slam title in Australia a year ago gave Aryna Sabalenka the confidence she could do it again. Losing the U.S. Open final last September gave her the extra motivation.

Second-ranked Sabalenka clinched back-to-back Australian Open titles with a 6-3, 6-2 victory over Zheng Qinwen on Saturday in a one-sided women’s final that contrasted sharply with her comeback three-set victory here over Elena Rybakina last year.

Sabalenka set the tone by breaking Zheng’s serve early in each set in a 76-minute victory over 21-year-old Zheng, who was making her debut in a Grand Slam final.

The journey and the destination were equally important for Sabalenka.

In the semifinals, she avenged her U.S. Open final loss to fourth-ranked Coco Gauff with a straight-set win over the reigning major champion.

That followed straight-sets wins over 2021 French Open winner Barbora Krejcikova in the quarterfinals and Amanda Anisimova in the fourth round. She didn’t drop a set all tournament, and only one – a tiebreaker against Gauff – went past 10 games.

“I’m definitely a different person and a player and I have more experience playing the last stages of the Grand Slams,” Sabalenka said, reflecting on the last 13 months. “There was like some tough moments for me losing the U.S. Open final – that loss actually motivated me so much to work even harder.”

And that, she said, gave her more confidence in her game and more self-belief.

“The first one is always special because I feel like it’s more emotional,” she said. “For the second time, it’s just such a relief.

“I’ve been under a little pressure these two weeks and I’m super happy that I was able to handle this pressure and compete on such a high level.”

Only two things slowed Sabalenka’s progress Saturday (late Friday night PT) to her second Grand Slam singles title.

In the third game of the second set, with Zheng serving, the match was interrupted after an activist started yelling out. The match continued after the man was escorted out by security.

Then, when she was serving for the match, Sabalenka had three championship points at 40-0 but missed two with wide or long forehands and another with Zheng’s clever drop shot.

After giving Zheng a breakpoint chance, she bounced the ball away behind her in disgust but she recovered her composure to win the next three points.

In the end, she needed five championship points before finishing off with a forehand crosscourt winner. It was the kind of shot that had kept Zheng on the back foot almost from the start.

Sabalenka is the first woman since Victoria Azarenka in 2012 and ’13 to win back-to-back Australian Open titles, and the fifth since 2000 to win the championship here without dropping a set – a group that includes Serena Williams.

A decade after Li Na won the Australian Open title, Zheng made her best run in nine majors to date. She said during the tournament that she felt well-supported in Melbourne because of the big Chinese community. And that played out for the final, where the flags waved and she had the crowd behind her.

But she was playing an opponent ranked in the top 50 for the first time in this tournament.

It was the second time in as many majors their paths had met in the second week. Sabalenka beat Zheng in the U.S. Open quarterfinals last year on her way to the final.

Zheng’s push to the final was two rounds better than her previous best run to the quarterfinals in New York last September.

She was the first player in four decades to advance through six rounds without playing anyone ranked in the top 50 – and was only the third in the Open era to reach a major final without facing a seeded player.

The step up against Sabalenka proved huge.

​ Orange County Register 

What to expect for 2024’s commercial real estate lease rates

• January 27, 2024

Over the past three years, we experienced changing markets. By that I mean the dynamic between buyers and sellers that sets the stage for negotiation and results in transactions.

At the beginning of 2021, as we slowly awakened from the ether of pandemic lockdowns, two trends emerged: rampant online shopping and hybrid workforces.

Both of these phenomena affected commercial real estate and its three asset classes — office, industrial and retail — in different ways.

Owners of industrial spaces — especially those equipped to welcome logistics providers — saw a rapid increase in demand. Fulfilling online orders quickly and efficiently required more on-hand inventory. That translates to a place to receive, stage, store and distribute said goods.

Conversely, as our shopping experiences turned from visiting our local retailer in person to surfing the web, foot traffic to brick-and-mortar stores lessened and spaces became ghost towns.

On the office front, tenants choreographed a thoughtful dance, keeping its workforces safe vs. enforcing in-office work days.

We realized we could ply our trades from just about anywhere, and many did. Therefore, office and retail tilted toward tenants. Industrial spaces were heavily slanted in the owners’ direction.

As we march into 2024, the aggressive pursuit of available inventory by industrial tenants has ebbed, investor activity has been reduced to a trickle and we’re seeing signs of lease rate softening.

In light of changing markets, how should you — as an occupant of industrial space — tender your offers? That, dear readers, is the focus of the balance of this column.

The trends

At the beginning of 2023, we advised our industrial occupants to watch lease rates. Our prediction was significant softening would occur by the end of the year. Therefore, to transact at the beginning of the year might result in a rate higher than anticipated. Our gamble proved prescient, as we experienced a declination of rates, in some cases by 25%.

The metrics

A simple review of how many available properties within a certain size range exist, vs. how many similar properties have leased or sold, is a good way to measure the velocity of a market.

As an example, if during the past year, three buildings between 25,000 and 35,000 square feet have leased or sold, and presently there are 15 available, one could surmise that five years of supply exist.

This, of course, assumes everything stays the same, pricing is not reduced to spur demand, or something outside our economy causes the need for space to increase — such as a pandemic.

The owners

If an owner is carrying a vacant building, it’s important to gauge how willing she will be to accept a deal.

For someone who bought the building at the peak of the market with the usual increase in operating expenses and potential debt service, her willingness to strike at a number less than her carrying costs might be difficult.

By the same token, if ownership has existed for many years with low operating expenses and little to no debt, any deal might look appealing.

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at [email protected] or 714.564.7104.

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