Santa Ana takes pointless stand on Middle East policy

• March 13, 2024

Santa Ana is facing a number of serious problems related to its budget and its provision of public services, yet that hasn’t stopped the City Council from spending its time debating divisive and symbolic issues that are outside its control. After boisterous public meetings, the council recently voted for a resolution calling for a permanent ceasefire in Israel and Gaza.

The council also called on Hamas to release Israeli hostages, for the recognition of Israel’s right to exist and for a two-state solution. After introducing the resolution, Councilmember Benjamin Vazquez said “it is our duty to speak up in the times of injustice.”

Councilmembers Jessie Lopez, Johnathan Hernandez and Thai Viet Phan voted yes. Mayor Valerie Amezcua voted no. The only sensible response came from Councilmembers Phil Becerra and David Penaloza, who stepped out before the circus started.

There’s little justification for performative local policy making. The Israeli-Gaza war is upsetting and many Santa Ana residents have connections in that region and deep-seated emotions about the war. But no one in the Middle East cares what Santa Ana’s council believes. There’s nothing to be gained by turning council meetings into a foreign-policy debating society with packed chambers and chanting – and law enforcement on alert.

Related Articles

Back to reality. City officials don’t know how they are going to backfill 22 percent of their annual budget when a voter-approved sales tax decreases in five years, per news reports. Filling that $30 million shortfall without slashing services will require advance planning.

Recent news reports also note the city is looking at doubling street-cleaning fees or cutting service because of a new statewide wage mandate.

Cities that can’t figure out how to keep their streets clean – or clear out homeless encampments – ought to focus attention at home. Santa Ana isn’t the only city with an outsized sense of its international influence, as other OC cities have weighed in on the matter. But that doesn’t justify this waste of time.

Regardless of their views on the Middle East, residents are united in wanting the budget balanced and the streets clean.

​ Orange County Register 

Why are American progressives silent after reports of Hamas’ rape, sexual torture of Israelis?

• March 13, 2024

The United Nations has long been so uniformly corrupt on the subject of Israel that anytime it ekes out an acknowledgement of attacks on the Jewish state — however reluctantly, belatedly and perfunctorily it does so — it’s a man-bite-dog story. Last week, a U.N. official who had clearly drawn the bureaucratic short straw issued a “report” of sorts, confirming what anyone paying attention already knew: that in the process of slaughtering 1,200 Israelis on Oct. 7, Hamas had also committed mass acts of sadistic, savage sexual violence.

Hamas’ barbarism against young Israelis at an all-night dance festival or asleep in their beds had been thoroughly documented for months by the time the poor U.N. functionary was asked by the secretary general to do something that looked as though he were looking into the matter in late January — almost four months after Hamas’ slaughter. God-awful evidence, video and audio recordings by Hamas gunmen, firsthand accounts — and confessions — had already been collected and analyzed.

“Everything was an apocalypse of corpses,” one survivor has recalled. “Girls without any clothes on. Without tops. Without underwear. People cut in half. Butchered. Some were beheaded. There were girls with a broken pelvis due to repetitive rapes. Their legs were spread wide apart in a split.”

One Israeli investigator stated that “our team commander saw several female soldiers who were shot in the crotch, intimate parts, vagina or shot in the breasts. There seemed to be systematic genital mutilation of a group of victims.”

The U.N. report did make official what had already been assumed about Hamas’ hostages. It found “clear and convincing” evidence that the children and women held by Hamas have been subjected to rape, sexualized torture, and cruel and degrading sexual abuse.

Now, it might be imagined that self-professed progressives on campuses, in social justice organizations and in The New York Times newsroom would find it natural to condemn Hamas, to make sure that the public knew about these outrages, and to demand that Hamas release those it continues to hold captive.

But no.

There are throngs of young feminists who, rightly disgusted by the sheer misogyny on full display in the “Access Hollywood” tape and by Donald Trump’s sexual assault on E. Jean Carroll, wouldn’t be caught dead breathing a public word about Hamas’ rape and torture of Israeli women. We are lucky if young progressives are prepared to acknowledge that it even occurred. As for speaking up about it on campus or in the workplace, forget about it. To say that it isn’t fashionable to deplore what Hamas did and pledges to do again doesn’t capture it; speaking up about this is considered social suicide.

Related Articles

The current line is that condemning Hamas’ rape spree amounts to Zionists “weaponizing” rape — because, you see, it isn’t Hamas, which did the raping, which weaponized rape. It’s those pointing out what Hamas did. Moreover, condemning Hamas for its bestial violence against women is “playing into an anti-Palestinian narrative.” Such is the deeply disturbed state of the left: part Alice-in-Wonderland on steroids, part mind-bending intellectual dishonesty.

Writer Batya Ungar-Sargon, author of “Bad News: How Woke Media Is Undermining Democracy,” spoke recently about the video of 25-year-old Noa Argamani dancing at the Nova music festival just before she was executed by Hamas killers, who then carted her body back into Gaza, where a mob cheered. “Can you even imagine a starker contrast between good and evil?” she asked. “Surely, I thought in my naivete, the left would see itself reflected in these music-loving young people. Surely Noa Argamani begging for her life as the butchers made off with her would inspire on the left a sense of identification and a corresponding sense of anger.”

“How could it not?” she says she thought. “Friends, it did not.”

So many who hold themselves out as progressives remain silent about Hamas. They justify it, contextualize it, even defend it. Historians will look back at them, and pronounce them a disgrace. Justly so.

Jeff Robbins, a former assistant United States attorney and United States delegate to the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva, was chief counsel for the minority of the United States Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. An attorney specializing in the First Amendment, he is a longtime columnist for the Boston Herald, writing on politics, national security, human rights and the Mideast.

​ Orange County Register 

Dollar Tree closing nearly 1,000 stores

• March 13, 2024

By Michelle Chapman | The Associated Press

Dollar Tree swung to a surprise fourth-quarter loss and will close nearly 1,000 stores after the discount retailer slashed the value of a rival chain it acquired almost a decade ago.

Dollar Tree plans to close about 600 Family Dollar stores in the first half of this year and 370 Family Dollar and 30 Dollar Tree stores over the next several years.

Also see: The Body Shop shuts down entire US operation

Dollar Tree acquired Family Dollar for more than $8 billion in 2015 after a bidding war with rival Dollar General, but it has had difficulty absorbing the chain.

On Wednesday, Dollar Tree said that it would record a $950 million impairment against the trade name Family Dollar, on top of a $1.07 billion goodwill charge. Family Dollar will spend more than $594 million closing or rebranding stores, essentially erasing profits from the holiday season.

“This dramatic cull is the coup de grâce in the rather botched acquisition of the Family Dollar chain, which has caused Dollar Tree nothing but hassle since it was completed back in 2015,” wrote Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData. “Basically, almost ten years on, Dollar Tree is still sifting through the mess it inherited and has not been able to completely turn around,” Saunders said.

See also: Aldi adding 800 discount grocery stores across US

Saunders said in an emailed statement that nearly 12% of current Family Dollar stores will be closing over the next three years.

Shares of Dollar Tree tumbled 14% at the opening bell Wednesday.

For the three months ended Feb. 3, Dollar Tree lost $1.71 billion, or $7.85 per share. A year earlier the Chesapeake, Virginia, company earned $452.2 million, or $2.04 per share.

More on retailers: Target launches $49 membership plan for Circle members

Stripping out certain items, earnings were $2.55 per share, which is still short of the per-share earnings of $2.67 expected on Wall Street, according to a survey by Zacks Investment Research.

Revenue climbed to $8.64 billion from $7.72 billion, a bit below Wall Street’s estimate of $8.67 billion.

Dollar Tree has been attracting consumers that have been stung by inflation as they seek to cut spending. During the quarter, sales at Dollar Tree stores open at least a year climbed 6.3%, with traffic up 7.1%. While more shoppers were heading to stores, they were closely watching how much they spent, with average ticket down 0.7%.

At Family Dollar, sales at stores open at least a year slipped 1.2%. Traffic edged up 0.7%, but average ticket fell 2%.

More closures: Macy’s shuitting 150 unproductive stores amid sales slip

For fiscal 2024, Dollar Tree anticipates earnings between $6.70 and $7.30 per share. Revenue is expected in a range of $31 billion to $32 billion.

Analysts polled by FactSet expect full-year earnings of $7.04 on revenue of $31.68 billion.

Dollar Tree expects first-quarter earnings of $1.33 to $1.48 per share on revenue in a range of $7.6 billion to $7.9 billion.

Wall Street anticipates first-quarter earnings of $1.70 on revenue of $7.68 billion.

Related Articles

​ Orange County Register 

Why are more young adults getting colorectal cancer? Researcher is trying to find out

• March 13, 2024

As a rising number of young adults get colorectal cancer before they turn 50, researchers are trying to find out what’s behind the alarming jump in this early-onset cancer.

Colorectal cancer is now the leading cause of U.S. cancer deaths in men under 50 and the number two cause among women of the same age, according to the American Cancer Society. The early-onset colorectal cancer rates are increasing by 1% to 2% each year, but the rise remains a mystery.

Now, a Mass General researcher is leading a team to investigate the rapid jump in young adult cases of colorectal cancer, a disease in which cells in the colon or rectum grow out of control.

Andrew Chan, the director of epidemiology for the Mass General Cancer Center, is co-leading the global team known as PROSPECT — which received a grant of up to $25 million over five years to study early-onset colorectal cancer. The research team is looking to understand the pathways, risk factors and molecules involved in the cancer’s development.

“Research suggests that this risk is increasing with each new generation,” said Chan, a gastroenterologist focused on cancer prevention among families at high risk of gastrointestinal cancer, “And is likely linked to exposures in early life and throughout an individual’s lifetime that are specific to their birth cohort.”

The research team has uncovered contributing causes to this rise in early-onset cases, including: overweight/obesity, physical inactivity, poor diet, and alterations in the gut microbiome.

“Despite this progress, these factors do not completely explain the rapid rise in cases, and many unanswered questions remain about the mechanisms responsible for the rise in cases,” Chan said.

Related Articles

The team will try to identify the risk factors associated with early-onset colorectal cancer, as well as develop prevention strategies.

“Uncovering the causes of the rising incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer around the globe is a one of the highest priorities in the field,” Chan said.

“This work will offer opportunities for preventive interventions that can benefit younger generations,” Chan added. “In addition to colorectal cancer, there is a rising incidence of multiple cancer types in young adults. The research can serve as a model for the study of other early-onset cancers.”

The research team includes 11 investigators from nine institutions in five countries, including: Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard University, MIT, Broad Institute, and King’s College London.

Meanwhile, the widow of the late actor Chadwick Boseman — who died from colorectal cancer when he was 43 — recently visited Dana-Farber Cancer Institute as part of Colorectal Cancer Awareness Month.

Simone Ledward-Boseman was the keynote speaker at the 5th Annual Patient and Family Forum at the Young-Onset Colorectal Cancer Center at Dana-Farber Brigham Cancer Center.

“Colorectal cancer is killing young people across the country, and most are vastly underestimating their risk,” Ledward-Boseman said. “I’ve seen how this disease moves, and I know now how treatable it is when it’s detected early… Spreading awareness will save lives.”

The American Cancer Society recommends that people at average risk of colorectal cancer start regular screening at age 45.

People at increased or high risk of colorectal cancer might need to start colorectal cancer screening before age 45. This includes people with: a family history of colorectal cancer or certain types of polyps; a personal history of inflammatory bowel disease; or a genetic syndrome, such as familial adenomatous polyposis or hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer.

​ Orange County Register 

Airbnb bans all indoor security cameras

• March 13, 2024

Airbnb said this week that it was banning the use of all indoor security cameras in its listings worldwide, an update to its current policy allowing the devices to be installed in common areas such as hallways and living rooms.

In a statement Monday, the company said that most of the listings on its site do not have indoor security cameras, but that it was making privacy a priority.

Previously, security cameras were allowed in common areas so long as hosts disclosed them to guests before booking. They had to be visible, not hidden, and were not allowed in sleeping areas or bathrooms. Airbnb said the policy update, which takes effect April 30, prohibits security cameras anywhere inside the properties, even if they are visible.

It was not immediately clear why the company made the change, but the widespread use of indoor security cameras has raised concerns about privacy in vacation rentals, hotels, public bathrooms, locker rooms and on cruise ships.

Headlines and internet forums have long been rife with reports of unscrupulous vacation rental hosts accused of spying on guests with secret cameras hidden inside clocks, smoke detectors, outlets and other ordinary objects.

Juniper Downs, Airbnb’s head of community policy and partnerships, said in the statement that the changes had been made in consultation with guests, hosts and privacy experts.

“Our goal was to create new, clear rules that provide our community with greater clarity about what to expect on Airbnb,” she said. The company is one of the biggest players in the short-term rental market, with more than 7 million listings in more than 100,000 cities worldwide.

Airbnb will continue to allow outdoor security cameras, noise decibel monitors and doorbell cameras, it said, because they are an effective way to monitor security and prevent guests from throwing unauthorized parties.

But hosts will be required to disclose the presence of such cameras and their general location before guests book, and the devices cannot be used to monitor areas where there is an expectation of privacy, such as an enclosed outdoor shower or sauna.

As the use of consumer surveillance devices grows, many travelers and others are using techniques to figure out whether they are being watched, such as searching for inexplicable lights or holes in objects that may house a camera lens.

​ Orange County Register 

Pamela Des Barres brings her Led Zeppelin, Doors and Jimi Hendrix stories to the Whisky

• March 13, 2024

Pamela Des Barres knows the Sunset Strip has changed since its rock and roll heyday in the ’60s and ’70s when she, then known as Miss Pamela, roamed its sidewalks.

But these days, amid the ghosts of bands and fans and venues, you can sometimes still find Des Barres, a well-known memoirist of that heady time and place, and when you do, well, odds are good she’s at the Whisky a Go Go, her home away from home in those glamorous days gone by.

“I do these rock and roll tours,” says Des Barres, who’s been called the most famous groupie who ever lived, a title she laughs off as the result of telling tales and naming names in her 1987 autobiography “I’m With The Band: Confessions of a Groupie.”

“We go into the Whisky and I said, ‘This is where this and that happened,’” she says of the occasional tours she leads. “I mean, no one can even believe that I saw live on that little stage the Who, Jimi Hendrix and Led Zeppelin. On that tiny stage. No one can believe that.

“But it was such a hip place,” Des Barres says. “You know, like, Zeppelin would play the Forum one night, and then get up on stage at the Whisky. It’s a magical place.

“Because of Zappa, who I was aligned with in many different ways, I was there a lot,” she says. “He played there quite a bit. The GTOs, the girl group we put together with Frank, we opened for Alice (Cooper) and the Mothers there one time. Our first real gig was at the Whisky.

“So it’s really a very special place. The walls ooze, shall we say?”

On Sunday, March 17, Des Barres will return to that tiny stage inside the landmark Whisky in West Hollywood, for a live show called “Take Another Little Piece of My Heart” after her second memoir she published in 1992, which borrowed its title from the Janis Joplin and Big Brother and the Holding Company hit “Piece of My Heart” from 1968.

It’s a show she debuted at the Whisky on Sept. 9, 2023, her 75th birthday, which mixes readings from her memoirs with asides that the books inspire, bits of music from the artists she loved or who inspired her, while photographs and video clips play on a screen behind her.

She’ll probably talk about her girlhood crushes on Elvis Presley, Dion and Paul McCartney, which she dutifully chronicled in the diaries she religiously kept from girlhood through young adulthood. She’ll definitely talk about some of the famous musicians she fell for as a fan and sometimes lover, names that include Jimmy Page of Led Zeppelin and Mick Jagger of the Rolling Stones, Chris Hillman of the Byrds and Keith Moon of the Who.

“Whatever comes to my mind – it’s very off the cuff,” Des Barres says of the night that will also include a Q-and-A hosted by her rock star ex-husband Michael Des Barres. “Just about my crazy, amazing, unpredictable, insane, glorious life in the ’60s and early ’70s.”

In an interview edited for length and clarity, Des Barres talked about her show and books, the bands and men she knew in different degrees of intimacy, and what people get wrong about groupies.

Q: Tell me more about what special things you’ve planned for your show at the Whisky.

A: Gram Parsons was a good friend of mine, and I share a piece of clothing that I made for him, that his ex-wife gave me. And Polly Parsons, his daughter, is my producer, and she’s directing this one, actually.

That’s a full-circle thing. Gram called me one evening (in 1969) and said, ‘My fiancée Nancy’s in town with my daughter Polly. I wanted to take her out to dinner, could you come babysit?’ I was 19 years old, just enamored with all things Gram and the Flying Burrito Brothers, Byrds, everything. Of course, I was thrilled to do that. So I met Polly when she was not quite a year and a half old and now she’s my manager.

It’s pretty far out. Talk about full-circle, cosmic American music, man.

Q: I was just reading in ‘I’m With The Band” where you talk about making Gram a shirt, and he promises not to lose it in a poker game like Chris Hillman did with the shirt you made him.

A: That’s exactly the shirt I’m showing. I made him that purple, hand-embroidered shirt with ‘GP’ and the beading and everything. And he told me he would never lose it in a poker game. In fact, he kept it in plastic. Gretchen, his former girlfriend from back then – wife, actually – gave me that many decades ago. I just burst into tears at seeing it. Because the last time I saw that shirt it was on him, you know.

Q: What’s it like to do this show on stage at the Whisky, a club where you spent countless nights watching bands from the audience?

A: Oh, it’s incomprehensible. I was not up on the stage with the GTOs [the girl group Zappa formed]. We performed our act on the dance floor. Which at that time, the dance floor was elevated and had a little fence around it. It was almost a stage. But yeah, it’s very different, looking out into the audience from the stage. It’s just incredible what went on there through the years.

Jim Morrison. I’ve got incredible Jim Morrison stories I tell about the Whisky there. (The Doors) played several nights in a row there regularly. Sometimes people can’t relate to that. They think of Jim Morrison as this Greek god and everything. But he was a guy.

Q: So when you’re telling these stories, what’s it like to be taken back to when you were a teenage girl from Reseda, going over the hill to Hollywood night after night to hit the scene?

A: I was 16. I was still in high school when I met Captain Beefheart at the Teenage Fair because his cousin went to my high school. I didn’t really get involved with romantic relationships with musicians until I was really 19. But I was there. I was on the Strip. I was at all the shows.

I was making out with some of these people, but, you know, I was still very old-fashioned really. Brought up in the ’50s. So I wanted to be in love to give my all, so to speak.

Q: Who tends to come see your shows – younger people or ones who were there on the scene back then?

A: Most people who come are not in my age group. You know, I am a very spectacularly healthy individual from that time because I was not addicted to stuff. I dabbled in everything but I did not get addicted to anything. I’m pretty healthy. My brain still works. And people want to know what it was really like, so they are fascinated with my tales.

However, I do not live in the past. It’s just become sort of a business for me. But it’s fun going back there for other people because they weren’t there. And my diary entries are so immediate. Like there’s one where I was with Zeppelin at the Forum: ‘Oh Jimmy (Page)! The encore just started. Oh, here he comes. He’s getting in the limo.’ People are just enthralled with it.

Or Jimi Hendrix. I danced in the ‘Foxy Lady’ video.’ I was there. So of course they want to know about it.

Q: How many diaries do you have from back then? Is it like a bookshelf filled with them?

A: Oh, yeah. I started writing in my diary when I was – I think it was my eighth or ninth Christmas. My mom got me a diary, those little diaries that lock, you know. And I already loved to write, so I just felt obligated to write in that thing.

Q: It’s amazing, and such an archive of a time and place, too.

A: Yeah, I didn’t expect that, of course. Writing it all (in books). I always took writing courses, creative writing classes. So at one point, I was thinking about writing a book, but I didn’t know if anybody would be interested. At that same time, I did an interview with Stephen Davis for one of the very first rock tell-all books, ‘Hammer of the Gods’ (about Led Zeppelin).

He said, ‘Whoa!’ – after I’d given him all my stories, of course – ‘you should write your own book.’ At the very same time, I wrote about meeting the Stones for the very first time in my writing class. My teacher told me to write a book and (Davis) did, so I thought, ‘OK, I’m gonna start doing that.’

Q: I want to ask you about the term groupie. On your podcast (Pamela Des Barres’ Pajama Party) recently, you described the essence of being a groupie as love.

A: That’s it. We loved the music. We wanted to be around it. Also, for me, where did it come from? How did they do that? Can I do anything near that level of genius and brilliance? Any great art touches the audience member and makes an equal with that person, I believe.

Like a Springsteen show, people are 100 percent united. I’ve never missed him, because, besides being a massive fan, I want to feel that from thousands of people. I want to be immersed in it. I’m still so obsessed with Dion. The last time he played was a couple of years ago in New Jersey and I flew there to see him. My love is eternal for these people.

And it wasn’t just sex, by any means. I made shirts, as you know. I made Jimmy Page a shirt, pink-and-white velvet with three-foot-long fringe. There’s lots of pictures of him in it. So, you know, there’s so much more to it.

Q: I don’t think people understand that. I think they think it’s just people having sex with rock stars when it’s not really that.

A: Well, that’s part of it. But everyone was having sex. Everyone. We just happened to have it with really cool people. People that everyone else wanted to have sex with. [laughs.]

Related Articles

Q: Exactly. [laughs]

A: And it was a time when you could do that. A rare time when all of a sudden women had some rights, and I took advantage of it. I mean, I took the birth control pill in front of people on the Sunset Strip, and I assume that was an act of feminism. That’s what really pisses me off, too. They say ‘groupies’ – I get accused still of being a submissive slut, you know, and it’s just absurd. Absurd.

Q: ‘I’m With The Band’ came out in the late ’80s when it was still controversial to talk this frankly about being a young woman enjoying sex with rock stars.

A: Oh yeah. It was very tough. I went on many talk shows and got really lambasted by audiences. And it really hurt me when women would jump all over me, which they did. That part was no fun. But eventually, I did get used to it and had my lines all worked out. One of the main ones was, ‘I’m sorry you didn’t get to sleep with Mick Jagger.’

Q: What’s next for you? I’ve heard you might take this show on the road.

A: Well, in November I did the show in London and it was great. Polly has gotten me a booking agent and we’re trying to line up some venues in New York and San Francisco and Austin. Nashville. I’m hoping to take it out on the road.

My other stuff, I just finished a book with Jane Petty, Tom Petty’s wife of 25 years. It’s called ‘American Girl,’ and it’s about their relationship. I’m just now writing my third memoir, ‘Sex, God, and Rock and Roll,’ about my lifelong spiritual quest. And then a Cynthia Plaster Caster book. I’m very, very busy.

​ Orange County Register 

Why is inflation tracked so many ways?

• March 13, 2024

Inflation is in the hot seat heading into November’s election. But it’s not budging as fast as President Joe Biden would probably like.

The Federal Reserve is tasked with bringing to its 2% target. So how close are we? It depends what metric you’re looking at.

If you’re looking at the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, it’s nearly there. The latest reading had prices increasing at a 2.4% annual rate.

But if you’re looking at the latest Consumer Price Index data released Tuesday, prices are up 3.2% for the past 12 months ended in February.

What’s the difference between these two gauges, and what’s behind the diverging reads?

CPI only covers prices consumers pay

As its name suggests, CPI looks at only the prices consumers pay. More specifically, it looks at what the average urban consumer pays for goods and services. PCE, however, looks at prices paid by the government, nonprofit organizations and consumers from all over the country.

Because of that, researchers at the Cleveland Federal Reserve estimate that a quarter of the spending that PCE tracks isn’t captured in CPI.

One big source of variation between the two indexes is that PCE gives a lot more weight to spending on health care services. That’s because it takes into account spending that occurs on behalf of consumers by, for instance, Medicare or employer-provided health insurance companies.

Housing, housing and more housing

The housing sector carries more than four times as much weight in CPI compared to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. That means that if housing prices increase by even a small percentage, it could cause the overall index to jump by a significant amount. By contrast, the overall index could cool a lot if housing prices fall even slightly.

The weights for each of the 80,000 items CPI tracks are updated each year based on spending data from the prior two years from consumer expenditure surveys the Census Bureau runs on behalf of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Last month, the 4.5% annual increase in shelter prices contributed about two percentage points to the overall rise in inflation.

But, with PCE, housing has a much more limited impact on the inflation index. In January, it contributed less than a percentage point to the overall 2.4% rise in PCE-measured annual inflation.

The weighting for PCE, which changes on a month-to-month basis, is determined by data the Commerce Department collects that is designed to capture how people are spending their money and how that changes over time. But a lot of that data comes from business surveys such as the Census Bureau’s monthly retail sales report.

One big advantage of the month-to-month weighting change is that it is able to capture substitution effects, like when consumers purchase more margarine because butter prices are higher.

Like housing, gas has a much heavier weight in CPI compared to PCE. From January to February, gas prices rose by 3.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis. That was one of the main reasons why CPI jumped by 0.4% on a monthly basis in February.

The latest PCE data from January had gas prices falling by 5.2% from December. (CPI also found gas prices fell that month.)

Faulted for using this metric

Both indexes use a widely criticized metric called owners’ equivalent rent (OER) to track housing inflation. OER is essentially how much money you could earn from renting out your house if you own it.

For renters, CPI and PCE look at how much people pay for rent in aggregate.

The wedge between OER and rent was especially large in January, causing some economists to question if one of the sets of data was flawed, since theoretically what people pay for in rent should be similar to what homeowners would get from renting their homes.

One major issue with OER and the rent data is that these numbers don’t consider how much people are being offered on new leases. That matters because the rate at which new leases are rising is much slower than existing leases.

For instance, Zillow data from February suggests the median household is dedicating 29% of their income to the cost of a new rental. That’s just a tenth of a percentage point higher compared to last February.

But it can often take months for these trends to show up in either the PCE or CPI housing indexes.

Another issue with using OER to track housing inflation is that it doesn’t really affect homeowners.

As Bank of America economists pointed out in a recent note, “most homeowners are locked in to long-term mortgages.”

“The homeownership rate in the US is close to two-thirds, 40% of which have no mortgage,” they said. “Of homeowners with a mortgage, the majority have a mortgage below 4%. These households have therefore not seen a change in monthly payments for housing, unlike renters.”

2024 economic forecasts

Chapman: ‘Very slow growth. No recession’
CS Fullerton: ‘Cracks’ will widen to a mild recession in late 2024
US Realtors: Housing rebound from 2023’s dismal sales
California Realtors: Rising prices, sales in 2024
USC: SoCal rents to rise 2-4% a year through 2025

Related Articles

​ Orange County Register 

The latest inflation boost? Soaring insurance costs

• March 13, 2024

It is costing Americans more to protect against disaster, a development that is pushing up official inflation figures.

Various kinds of insurance — including car, medical and property protection — are costing more, at least as official inflation figures measure them. Although it is tough for economic policymakers to do much to snuff out the various drivers behind the trend, the pressure is helping to increase overall prices.

“Insurance of various different kinds — housing insurance but also automobile insurance and things like that — that’s been a significant source of inflation over the last few years,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during congressional testimony last week. “And it’s to do with a million different factors.”

Vehicle insurance is the one adding notably to overall inflation, said Omair Sharif, founder of research firm Inflation Insights. Part of the increase in car insurance comes from the fact that parts and replacement vehicles have become a lot more expensive over recent years, and that is slowly feeding through to insurance premiums, he said.

Economists at Goldman Sachs expect that car insurance measure to have picked up sharply again in February, “reflecting strength in online insurance price data,” economists wrote in a note previewing the consumer price release Tuesday.

Insurance could stop adding so much to inflation with time, as the lagged effects of higher car costs in particular become more incorporated into insurance premiums. But it’s unclear how long it could take the full effect to fade.

And it’s not just car insurance that has been moving up. Medical care insurance is also higher, though it is measured in inflation in a wonkier way, essentially by taking a look at an insurance company’s earnings after it has paid out benefits. Sharif expects medical insurance to remain positive at least until April, when the data is in for an update, and likely after that.

And tenant and household insurance has been rising quickly — likely partly as climate-related problems such as wildfires and sea level rise make homes in some regions of the country more expensive to insure, increasing the policy premiums that feed into that measure.

“In the longer term, companies are withdrawing from writing insurance in some coastal areas,” Powell noted, adding that “it’s a significant issue.”

2024 economic forecasts

 
Chapman: ‘Very slow growth. No recession’

CS Fullerton: ‘Cracks’ will widen to a mild recession in late 2024

US Realtors: Housing rebound from 2023’s dismal sales

California Realtors: Rising prices, sales in 2024

USC: SoCal rents to rise 2-4% a year through 2025

Related Articles

​ Orange County Register