Ex-OC prosecutor deflects blame for failure to disclose evidence in 2010 murder case

• June 12, 2024

An Orange County Superior Court judge who failed to turn over evidence as a prosecutor in a 2010 murder case indicated Tuesday, June 11, that the fault may have been with sheriff’s investigators.

Ebrahim Baytieh, testifying in a hearing on whether murder defendant Paul Gentile Smith should go free because of the lack of disclosure, has said he didn’t know the evidence in question existed until 10 years after the trial.

On Monday, Baytieh testified he didn’t know what went wrong. On Tuesday, he said he depended on investigators to let him know what evidence was available for discovery.

“The presumption I worked on is that the police agency gives us everything that’s there,” Baytieh testified, under questioning by San Diego County Superior Court Judge Daniel Goldstein. “I worked based on the protocol they had, which is they bring me everything.”

Goldstein responded that Baytieh was still head of the prosecutorial team in the case, which includes the sheriff’s investigators, and, ultimately, responsible for turning over discovery to the defense. Sheriff’s officials have said the evidence was properly booked and available for discovery at the time of trial.

In a rare occurrence, Baytieh was under oath and on the witness stand in the case against Smith, who was convicted in 2010 of fatally stabbing his boyhood friend 18 times and torching the body in Sunset Beach.

Smith’s conviction was overturned in 2021 amid arguments that his constitutional rights were violated when evidence was not disclosed that multiple jailhouse informants were used against him. Only one informant was disclosed to the defense at the time of trial.

Smith now faces a retrial and his case was sent to Goldstein in San Diego to avoid a conflict with the Orange County bench. Orange County Assistant Public Defender Scott Sanders requested the hearing as part of his attempt to get the murder charges dismissed because of the prosecution’s conduct.

Baytieh was fired from his high-level job in the district attorney’s office in 2022, purportedly for his handling of the Smith case. Still highly regarded in the legal community, he was subsequently elected judge in June 2022.

In his second and last day of testimony, Baytieh said Tuesday he was trained at the district attorney’s office that evidence not introduced at trial and not considered to be exculpatory did not have to be disclosed to the defense. Baytieh said he now knows better.

Baytieh’s testimony adds another chapter to the scandal prompted by Orange County’s secret use of jailhouse informants, which unraveled the case against Scott Dekraai, who killed eight people in a 2011 shooting rampage at a Seal Beach beauty salon.

The judge in the Dekraai case ruled that he could not get a fair hearing because of the way informants were used against him. At that point, the death penalty was taken off the table and Dekraai ultimately pleaded guilty. He received multiple life sentences without the possibility of parole.

Related links

Ex-OC prosecutor testifies he doesn’t know why evidence wasn’t disclosed in murder case
Former top OC prosecutor conspired to hide evidence in murder case, defense attorney alleges
San Diego County judge takes up OC murder case, prosecutorial misconduct allegations
Misconduct allegations in OC murder prosecution center stage in San Diego courtroom
OC judge scheduled to testify on allegations he withheld evidence as a prosecutor

During his tenure as a prosecutor, Baytieh became the district attorney’s office’s main defender in the snitch scandal, denying allegations that informants were used improperly and in violation of defendants’ rights. Baytieh now admits the office was wrong.

On Tuesday, Sanders spent much of the day trying to get Baytieh to explain why he did not charge an inmate who ostensibly was trying to help Smith hire a hitman to kill a sheriff’s investigator. Sanders’ theory is that the inmate, Jeffrey Platt, actually was a jailhouse informant pretending to be cooperating with Smith — an informant who was not disclosed to the defense by Baytieh until 10 years after the trial.

Baytieh said he first learned of the evidence — taped recordings of Platt explaining his plan for three inmates to extract information from Smith — in 2019 and quickly retrieved copies for defense attorneys.

​ Orange County Register 

Rangers’ Corey Seager sits in regular-season return to Dodger Stadium

• June 12, 2024

LOS ANGELES — Corey Seager walked back into Dodger Stadium on Tuesday with another World Series title to his credit, and if there was not a spring in his step, it was only because of his current bout with hamstring soreness.

Once synonymous, Seager and the Dodgers are no more after seven wildly productive seasons and a World Series title in 2020.

If his transition between organizations in the winter of 2021 was difficult, Seager said he couldn’t recall those emotions. He didn’t seem willing to talk about it even if he did.

“That was a long time ago (and) I can’t really remember how it went,” Seager said. “I’m sorry to … I don’t want to go down that path.”

Looking back is a tricky endeavor. Even if Seager was willing to admit he missed an aspect of his Los Angeles days, he wasn’t about to let that concept be misinterpreted.

By guiding the Texas Rangers to a World Series championship – and his second World Series MVP in four seasons – his decision to relocate to the Dallas area was, by all accounts, a sound one.

“I don’t know if you ever thought it would be that fast, you know, it just kind of clicked at the right time, got hot in the playoffs and it turns into that,” Seager said of the vision Rangers general manager Chris Young had when he signed his 10-year, $325 million contract.

“But that was his plan to always move forward, so power to him to be able to see that and get the right people in and have it actually click.”

Seager was not in the Rangers’ lineup on Tuesday, missing his fourth consecutive game with a left hamstring strain. He was not sure if he would play at all in the series.

While it is the first time Seager, 30, has set foot inside of Dodger Stadium with his Rangers teammates, he did have a plate appearance during the 2022 All-Star Game in his former ballpark, where he was the National League Rookie of the Year in 2016, a two-time All-Star and a twice finished in the top 10 in NL MVP voting.

“This organization kind of raised me, (I was) drafted here, kind of made me the man I am today,” Seager said. “They taught me the game of baseball, made a lot of friends, had a lot of good times out there. So all of those memories kind of flashed back.”

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts recalled Seager as a “superstar, just a heady baseball player, great competitor and performed really well on the biggest of stages. A very good Dodger.”

Three seasons later, the Dodgers are still looking for their permanent answer at shortstop. Trea Turner held the job for one season, Miguel Rojas took it over last season when Gavin Lux was injured and Mookie Betts has it now after Lux’s defensive issues in the spring.

Seager, who received a generous ovation when he was welcomed back before the game and stepped out of the dugout to wave to the crowd, has taken note of Betts’ move to shortstop from afar and has the utmost respect for his former teammate.

“I haven’t been able to watch a game, but (Betts) is a special player,” Seager said. “Everybody knows that he’s a special athlete who can play all over the place at such a high level and still be able to compete at that spot, it’s been impressive.”

ONE MORE WEEK

Dodgers right-hander Bobby Miller said he expects his rehab outing for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday to be his last one before returning to the major league rotation. He has been out since April 10 with right shoulder inflammation.

“My goals are really to get as deep into (this) game as I possibly can, run my pitch count up high but not too high too early,” Miller said. “Just show that I can take a team deep into the game, give the team a chance to win and not tax the bullpen at all.”

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Miller was expected to play a key role in this season’s rotation with his 100 mph fastball. He had 11 strikeouts in his season debut against the St. Louis Cardinals but threw just 5⅔ innings over his next two starts before going on the IL.

“It’s been really tough, especially when I first went down,” Miller said. “I thought it was going to be missing a couple of starts. It turns out it was a lot more than I thought. It was tough mentally to sit down and watch the team. I’d much rather be out there helping the team win.”

ALSO

Third baseman Max Muncy (oblique) still has not swung a bat during his rehab process, with Roberts saying there remains no timetable for a return. … Clayton Kershaw (shoulder) is set to pitch in a simulated game Thursday at Dodger Stadium. … Right-hander Ryan Brasier (calf) threw a bullpen on Tuesday but there remains no timetable for a return. … With Kiké Hernandez batting .190 over his past 19 games as the primary replacement at third base, Rojas received his seventh start at third in the series opener against the Rangers.

UP NEXT

Rangers (TBD) at Dodgers (RHP Walker Buehler, 1-3, 4.82 ERA), 7:10 p.m., SportsNet LA, 570 AM

​ Orange County Register 

Judge rules in favor of former Huntington Beach mayor in air show cancellation case

• June 12, 2024

An Orange County judge on Tuesday ruled in favor of former Huntington Beach Mayor Kim Carr in a lawsuit that accused of her wrongly canceling the 2021 air show.

Operators of the Pacific Airshow sued Carr and the city for canceling the 2021 air show’s final day after an oil spill was discovered off the coast. The city agreed last year to settle with the Pacific Airshow and pay nearly $5 million, but Carr was still being sued. Attorneys for Carr and the Huntington Beach air show operator argued in court Monday over whether she should be liable for the cancellation of the 2021 air show.

Judge Jonathan Fish in a ruling released Tuesday afternoon agreed with a demurrer filed by Carr, which objected to the air show’s legal arguments. Mark Austin, Carr’s attorney, said in a text message that Fish’s ruling brings the case one step closer to dismissal.

The judge gave the Pacific Airshow a chance to amend its complaint following the ruling.

Carr in statement said she was pleased with the ruling, calling the lawsuit baseless and vindictive.

In an updated complaint filed last July, Pacific Airshow accused Carr of making a unilateral decision to cancel the event’s third day, allegedly because of personal animosity toward the operator. Carr has denied that claim and said she didn’t have that power.

“All of those allegations are what they added to save their complaint,” said Austin, the attorney representing Carr, at a hearing on Monday.

Suoo Lee, Pacific Airshow’s attorney, said Monday that there should have been a public hearing with notice to the operator to discuss canceling the air show.

“We recognize had the proper protocols been followed … we would not be here today,” Lee said.

Monday’s hearing did not focus on the facts behind the case. It concentrated on whether Pacific Airshow’s legal arguments were valid or not.

“Carr is immune from these claims even if her alleged decision to cancel the remainder of the airshow was based on personal animus,” Fish wrote in the ruling.

Carr said a combination of agencies and people, including the U.S. Coast Guard, the fire chief, the police chief and the city manager made the decision to cancel.

“I will repeat over and over again that I did not cancel the air show,” Carr said in an interview. “I did not have the power to unilaterally cancel the airshow as stated.”

Austin told the judge that Pacific Airshow’s arguments that Carr made the decision to cancel the air show alone, but also acted outside of her power as a member of the City Council, don’t hold up.

“They just can’t have it both ways,” Austin said.

Carr was a councilmember until 2022. She ran unsuccessfully for the state Senate, losing to Sen. Janet Nguyen. Carr, after the hearing, alleged the lawsuit was filed to hurt her ahead of her 2022 state senate race.

“I was excluded from the multimillion-dollar settlement,” Carr said in a statement. “If they had truly believed that the settlement was proper, they would have included me, instead of inexplicably leaving the city legally and financially exposed.”

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​ Orange County Register 

City of Hope’s new blood test for lung cancer will mean more early detections

• May 31, 2024

To test for lung cancer, a person needs to get low-dose computed tomography screening, more commonly known as a CT scan. But that can be costly and time-consuming, just two reasons why less than 2% of those eligible in California ever get scanned.

The City of Hope and DELFI Diagnostics Inc. are trying out a new kind of screening for lung cancer that uses a simple blood test. They believe that this much more convenient and less costly testing will draw in more people for screening, and save lives through early detection and treatment.

“It is very frustrating to see such low adoption of lung cancer screening,” said Dr. Dan Raz, a thoracic surgeon at City of Hope in Duarte and director of the lung cancer screening program. “This test has a lot of potential, especially for people who have a lot of barriers to getting screened.”

Lung cancer kills more people than any other kind of cancer. About 150,000 deaths each year in the U.S. are from lung cancer alone. But about 98% of those eligible for the scan in California are not getting it. In the U.S., 94% are eligible but only about 6% are being scanned, according to City of Hope and its partner, DELFI.

Blood test will save lives

“It’s important because it will save lives through lung cancer early detection. Finding it early will reduce the chances people will die,” explained Dr. Peter Bach, a former pulmonary and intensive care physician at Memorial Sloan Cancer Center in New York and now the chief medical officer at DELFI.

“The challenge we have had, even though (a CT scan) is covered by insurance, it is not particularly convenient and has not been used at rates of other screening tests” for other types of cancer, Bach said.

The CT scans are often hit by delays, plus the lack of same-day or weekend testing. The scans take several hours or often half a day, and many people can’t or won’t take time off from work. Health insurance delays and transportation to a hospital or clinic also create barriers, Raz said.

Getting the right preventative care at the right time can mean the difference between life and death. Lung cancer is often found by accident, while a patient is getting treatment for unrelated conditions, Raz said.

“We know that if we successfully get to patients, our tests will help identify who should get a CT scan. It can prevent 10,000 deaths in the United States if fully implemented,” Bach said.

Testing in Antelope Valley and Pomona

So when City of Hope teamed up with DELFI, they began focusing on high-risk populations, such as those who smoked cigarettes for years, as well as low-income socio-economic populations with barriers to healthcare.

Starting in late April, a mobile testing unit was sent to the Antelope Valley. The team is also signing up people for the blood test at the ParkTree Community Health Center in Pomona. The test is offered free of charge to eligible trial participants.

The City of Hope’s mobile screening clinic truck. In April and May 2024, the cancer hospital and research center began its blood testing program for lung cancer through the mobile unit in the Antelope Valley. Another site is in Pomona. (photo courtesy of City of Hope)

Other areas are also beginning trials. In Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Hospital has begun a similar pilot program, said Dr. Panagis Galiatsatos, a pulmonary and critical care doctor who is a co-investigator of the DELFI blood test at Johns Hopkins and a spokesperson for the American Lung Association.

Galiatsatos said the blood test adds another tool for detecting lung cancer. “The intention is to make lung cancer diagnosis better,” he said on Wednesday, May 29. “So having a biomarker (from the blood test) can get at cancer in real time. It gives clinicians a bit more confidence when we talk to patients.”

Here’s how it works

First, doctors say it’s important to note that the blood test tells patients they may have lung cancer. It does not tell people they have cancer. Instead, for those found to have biomarkers, doctors direct them to get a CT scan, the gold standard of lung cancer screening.

The blood test can be done in conjunction with other doctor visits for blood screenings, for cholesterol or blood sugar levels, for example. Only one vial of blood is needed. And City of Hope can send a team to your home if you don’t have transportation, Raz said.

Clinicians look at genetic material specific to lung cancer, Raz said. “It looks for lung cancer cells and the patterns of fragments of DNA” floating in the blood, he explained.

“It’s like Where’s Waldo,” said Dr. Bach with DELFI. “We are looking at the way the DNA has been chewed up into fragments.”

Battling public resistance

But as with many new inventions, getting the general public to accept them can be a challenge.

People in Black communities may not trust doctors or government tests, said Rich Wallace, president and CEO of the Southern California Black Chamber of Commerce.

“These people don’t want to be tested. Black people don’t trust doctors. They also don’t want to be a guinea pig,” said Wallace on May 28.

Testing by the government in a 1932 study originally called the “Tuskegee Study of Untreated Syphilis in the Negro Male” of about 600 Black men, including 201 who did not have the disease, was done without the participants’ informed consent, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 1972 the study was called “unethically justified.”

“We have a distrust especially when we hear the word ‘test,’ ” Wallace said.

Darryl Jackson, pastor of Love Chapel Life Changing Ministries in Ontario, said he and his congregants are not worried about being tested. They were part of a five-year Inland Empire Smoke Out program in which they learned about the dangers of smoking and the fact that it causes lung cancer. His congregation is 95% smoke-free.

“Yeah, I think that may be something my people would be interested in,” Jackson said. “Something where people can get a blood test and then, especially if they can catch it early.” He said he would tell his congregation to go to the clinic in nearby Pomona.

City of Hope and DELFI are aware of the reasons that prevent people from signing up, and that’s part of the program — providing ways to break down barriers.

Some who have smoked for many years see that as a stigma and don’t want to admit it, according to surveys done at the clinic sites, said Raz. “They say ‘I am afraid of being judged for having smoked,’ ” he said. Another barrier is that people just don’t want to know.

“In the Black community, for some reason, we have a concept that goes like this: ‘If I don’t go, I won’t know.’ There is a fear of doctors,” Jackson said. In the program, he heard from smokers and those who’ve quit who say they will just wait and see what happens. “It can be procrastination in taking care of our bodies.”

Raz said that often when symptoms arise, it is too late to save the patient’s life.

He said they will provide transportation to the blood test site and to the CT scan appointment. They will work with Medi-Cal patients for clearance, or with employers to provide a day off. If the participant doesn’t have insurance, they can help pay the cost of the CT scan.

Overcoming social resistance to tests, doctors and scans takes a constant effort, especially in low-income, minority communities, said Galiatsatos. But it can be done by talking first to influencers such as rabbis, priests, pastors and imams, who in turn inform their congregants.

“You do it with good advocacy,” he said. “We must help individuals overcome social factors in order to keep them achieving the health they are promised.”

Related Articles

Related links

Inland Empire Smoke Out preaches no-smoking to minority communities
E-cigarette use by teens linked to later tobacco smoking, study says | CBC News
Duarte’s City of Hope acquires nationwide cancer hospital network
City of Hope patient is 86 and still tooting his own horn
Lung cancer

​ Orange County Register 

HOA Homefront: 17 things I wish all HOA managers knew

• May 31, 2024

This is part three in a five-part series.

Managers are the HOA’s most important service providers. HOAs don’t work well without competent and trustworthy managers.

1. Managers are increasingly vital for the HOA housing model as it continues to grow. At least 30% of Americans now live in one of 365,000 HOAs, according to the Foundation For Community Association Research.

2. HOA Managers are professionals, not clerks or secretaries. Managers who view themselves as professionals will receive more satisfaction from their careers and will be better managers of their client communities.

3. Manager advice often satisfies a key element of the Business Judgment Rule (good faith, no conflict of interest, and reasonable diligence), protecting volunteers from personal liability. Managers are the main source of advice to the board on most decisions.

4. Homeowners need the manager to be their advisor. Managers should speak up in board meetings and build a culture in which the HOA board expects manager input on most decisions.

5. HOAs need their managers to tell them the truth, even truths the board would prefer not to hear.  However, once the manager provides the advice, it’s up to the board to follow it.

6. If a board doesn’t trust you, it doesn’t matter how good a job you do.

7. Just like your client boards, you are not on duty 24/7. Set boundaries and REASONABLE communication response expectations.

8. Don’t be too chummy with the HOA board. Avoid creating the impression of being allied with any group of homeowners- you manage the HOA for all members.

9. Always stay above the fray during board elections – keep to yourself your opinions about who is (or would be) good or bad directors.

10. Since California does not license or regulate HOA managers, industry credentials are the only way to demonstrate qualifications. The entry level credentials of CAI (the “CMCA”) and CACM (the “CCAM”) show prospective clients a commitment to the profession. CAI’s Professional Community Association Manager (“PCAM”) credential remains the gold standard for HOA managers and should be their goal.

11.Don’t strive to be the cheapest management resource or the flashiest. Demonstrate your company’s commitment to providing qualified professionals and providing a level of service befitting the needs of each client community.

12. It’s not your fault HOAs are contentious – the current American culture is intolerant of differing opinions. Sadly, that culture is reflected in most HOAs.

13. Managers should help their boards regularly and meaningfully communicate with the membership. More informed HOAs are better client HOAs.

14. Managers are an important engine of cultural change in American real estate. Americans traditionally devalue communal living, preferring independent property ownership instead. However, economic realities have pushed Americans toward shared ownership communities. Recognizing this helps to understand the frustration of members who chafe at submitting to the will of their community.

15. The average HOA member doesn’t look at the governing documents until it is too late, so be gracious with first-time violators. They may not have known that they needed to ask permission for anything, and so are often angry to discover that they must cooperate with their neighbors.

16. Under Fair Housing laws the manager is also considered the “owner” of the property (California Fair Housing Regulations Section 12005(t)(1)). Managers must be alert and avoid violations.

Kelly G. Richardson CCAL is a Fellow of the College of Community Association Lawyers and Partner of Richardson Ober LLP, a California law firm known for community association advice. Send column questions to [email protected].

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​ Orange County Register 

Putting teeth in California housing goals

• May 31, 2024

You don’t necessarily always like to see various aspects of government in California seeking financial penalties against other aspects of government in California.

It’s unseemly, in that we’re not talking Monopoly money here. It’s not “theirs” — not government’s — it’s our money, that we gave them. It merely encourages highly paid government lawyers to go out and hire even more highly paid private attorneys to advise them in their fight to keep their version of our money.

But sometimes, absent being able to throw a government in jail when it is flaunting rules or even laws that matter to all Californians, financial penalties or at least the threat of them are appropriate bargaining chips.

Housing is the No. 1 priority for Californians right now. The lack of supply and the high price for what there is affects almost every aspect of life in our state. It is the true root of the homelessness crisis that plagues us; it affects our economy in not letting people live near where they work; it affects our society in not allowing younger generations into the real-estate market, prompting them to look elsewhere to live.

So the fines that are a part of Senate Bill 1037, authored by Sen. Scott Wiener, the Legislature’s toughest attack dog in the fight for more housing, are appropriate.

Wiener’s office says the bill would strengthen the state attorney general’s “ability to enforce state housing law with fines against cities that commit egregious violations of the law. This heightened enforcement will create stronger incentives for cities to comply with state housing laws. SB 1037 passed 23-9 and heads next to the Assembly, where it must pass by Aug. 31.”

Wiener says the bill applies only to cities “that have acted arbitrarily, not to cities that make good-faith errors.” And it’s not like the money gets purloined for the state’s General Fund: “The fines generated by the bill’s civil penalties will be deposited into an affordable housing fund for use in the offending city.”

The problem today is that if a judge decides a California city is in violation of state housing law, while fines can still be imposed, they can wait up to a year to comply.

“Local governments thus have no real incentive to follow the law since they can force the state to sue, lose, and then simply remedy the violation at that point and avoid penalties. This is a huge waste of taxpayer resources and undermines California’s housing goals,” Wiener says.

Even local politicians who acknowledge the obvious fact that California is underhoused often support only solutions that aren’t in their backyard. They know that creativity is needed, from more ADUs in formerly single-family neighborhoods to affordable housing in formerly commercial zones to reforming CEQA to streamlining ancient zoning codes.

But they too often want the reforms to occur in the next city over, insisting that the status quo is serving their city well.

The housing elements that every city and county in the state must update all go toward doing their part to meet their share of the 2022 California housing plan, which correctly says the state needs to plan for about 2.5 million new homes in the near future in order to put an affordable roof over the heads of all of its residents.

SB 1037 would allow the state to apply a minimum civil penalty of $10,000 per month, possibly going to $50,000 per month, for each violation by stick-in-the-mud cities. Nice to see that any such fines would go back into housing in the recalcitrant pols’ own communities.

The Assembly should join the Senate in passing the bill, and the governor should sign it.

​ Orange County Register 

Does presidential politics depress California consumer confidence?

• May 31, 2024

”Survey says” looks at various rankings and scorecards judging geographic locations, while noting these grades are best seen as a mix of artful interpretation and data.

Buzz: California’s consumer confidence about the future often falls into a funk in presidential election years.

Source: My trusty spreadsheet looked at the poll-powered results of the Conference Board’s index of statewide optimism, a benchmark that dates to 2007. To gauge political influences, the index average of the first five months of election years – 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 – was compared with the 13 years when control of the White House is not up for grabs.

Topline

Presidential politics often makes people grumpy – no matter your candidate or their chances of victory.

This California index confirms that thesis. Election year confidence, by this math, ran on average 7% lower than the non-election periods.

Details

This yardstick of shopper psyche comprises two factors – one eyeing today’s financial picture, the other tracking economic hopes. There’s a wide gap in the sub-index performance in these politically charged years.

The California view of current conditions was only 2% worse in election years than other times.

Conversely, their expectations for the future were 11% lower when the White House was up for a vote.

Economically speaking, nerve-wracking national politics chill the view of the future – and that anxiety can cut the urge to spend.

Caveat

Could 2024 be an outlier?

California started the year in the most optimistic mood of these five election years, despite what looks to be a bruising political rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

The state’s overall confidence index was 8% above the non-election year average. But, again, we see a split now versus the future.

REAL ESTATE NEWSLETTER: Get our free ‘Home Stretch’ by email. SUBSCRIBE HERE!

California’s current conditions index in 2024’s first five months was the most upbeat about real-time finances of the five election years. It was also 33% above the average “now” scores in non-election years.

However, this year’s expectations ran 11% below the non-election “future” as California’s 2024 outlook was the second-most pessimistic of the five election years.

Bottom line

This pattern is no California quirk.

Nationally, overall confidence was 3% lower in election years since 2007. But US consumers saw 2% better current conditions – and an 8% worse future.

And look at this presidential confidence gap in seven other states tracked. When states are ranked by size of the election year divide, it’s hard to see much of a red state/blue state theme …

Illinois: 7% lower confidence overall – 1% worse for current conditions and 12% worse for expectations.

Florida: 7% lower overall – 4% worse currently, 10% worse expectations.

New York: 6% lower overall – 1% worse currently, 9% worse expectations.

Ohio: 3% lower overall – 5% better currently, 9% worse expectations.

ECONOMIC NEWS: What’s the big trend? Should I be worried? CLICK HERE!

Texas: 2% lower overall – 1% better currently, 5% worse expectations.

Michigan: 2% lower overall – 3% better currently, 5% worse expectations.

Pennsylvania: 1% lower overall – 3% better currently, 5% worse expectations.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]

2024 economic forecasts

 
Chapman: ‘Very slow growth. No recession’

CS Fullerton: ‘Cracks’ will widen to a mild recession in late 2024

US Realtors: Housing rebound from 2023’s dismal sales

California Realtors: Rising prices, sales in 2024

USC: SoCal rents to rise 2-4% a year through 2025

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​ Orange County Register 

Why is drowning on the rise in Orange County and nationally?

• May 31, 2024

Even though it happened about 30 feet from where she stood, Eloise Burke didn’t see or hear her little sister, Ginny, die.

It was 1958, a warm but not hot summer day in Miami, and the sisters were playing in a public pool. Ginny, 7, was with some kids Eloise, then 10, didn’t know. And when those kids took their game to a different part of the pool they left Ginny behind, just below the surface.

The little girl drowned the way a lot of people drown; without a visible struggle or a sound.

“I remember it for a lot of reasons, of course. But I really remember how surprised I was,” said Burke, now 75, and living in Costa Mesa.

“How could nobody not even notice?”

The particular type of horror is on the rise.

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, drowning deaths have spiked, nationally and in Orange County.

Though a new report from the Centers for Disease Control doesn’t offer exact year-to-year national totals, it cites drowning rates that pencil out to more than 4,500 deaths each year from 2020 through 2022. That’s at least a 12.5% jump, or 500 more lives lost, from what was a fairly steady national average (about 4,000 drowning deaths per year) for much of the 2010s.

What’s more, because pre-pandemic drowning numbers were holding steady even as the population grew, the new death rates reflect a change in trajectory: A problem that seemed to be slowly improving might be rapidly getting worse.

Local health officials say the national trend also has played out in Orange County, where access to the ocean and public and private pools makes the community something of a hot spot for both swimming and drowning.

Last year, 54 people in Orange County drowned, up from 43 who perished that way in 2022, according to preliminary county data. State data shows that in 2019 there were just 31 drowning deaths in Orange County.

Most of the victims, nationally and locally, are little kids, ages 1 to 4. In fact, pre-pandemic, drowning was a leading cause of death in that age group, and federal data shows that from 2019 through 2022, there was a 28% spike in drowning deaths involving young children.

County health officials are only starting to sift through the national numbers and the preliminary local data, which tracks through 2023, a year that’s not yet available nationally. But, for the moment, the thinking is that people need to get – and heed – long-standing public health messages about water safety.

“There just needs to be a lot more education about this,” said Dr. Regina Chinsio-Kwong, Orange County’s chief medical officer.

“We offer a lot, in that, and (we) have for a long time. But maybe there’s a need for even more, particularly for communities that haven’t been getting any message about water safety.”

Other experts agree, though they suggest there might be a need to modernize at least some of what’s being fed to the public. Some long-standing public health messages about water safety – learn to swim, learn CPR, don’t let kids swim without a specific adult assigned to watch them, don’t drink or take drugs while swimming, don’t underestimate the danger of the ocean or even a bathtub – aren’t sinking in.

One example, they note, is the most basic of all water safety rules, the one about learning to swim. Public health agencies have been telling people to do that for decades but, according to new survey results from the CDC, a lot of people have ignored them.

In its report, issued May 23, the CDC found that about 15.4% of all American adults (roughly 40 million people) don’t know how to swim, and that only about 45% of all adults have ever had a formal swim lesson at some point in their lives. The swim instruction rates are lowest for people of color, particularly Hispanics (28%) and Black (37%) people, and only slightly better among Asians and Native Americans (47%), and only a slight majority of White people (52%) have had a swim lesson.

Some of that data might reflect long-standing racism that, for generations, prevented people of color from having full access to public swimming facilities. And the CDC notes that, indeed, people of color were more likely than White people to drown during the pandemic, particularly when surveys take into account any racial group’s estimated use of pools, the ocean and other swimming options.

The CDC said during the pandemic Hispanics suffered an unexpectedly big increase in drownings.

“Drowning death rates have not historically been disproportionately high among Hispanic persons; however, drowning deaths (among that group) were significantly higher in 2020, 2021 and 2022, compared with the rate in 2019,” the CDC wrote.

Orange County is seeing a similar trend involving a different community. Chinsio-Kwong noted that local people of Asian descent suffered a disproportionately big jump in drowning deaths over the past year, though she doesn’t yet have a specific explanation for why that’s happened.

“Maybe it’s about access,” she said, adding that the issue warrants more scrutiny.

That basic idea, more scrutiny, also applies to the question of why there’s been a drowning surge since the start of the pandemic. In theory, drownings should not have spiked during a period when so much of American life was pole-axed by the spread of COVID-19. Public pools and beaches were closed during the pandemic’s early months, and full access didn’t resume in much of the country until mid-2021.

Some experts argue that outdoor public pools and beaches were, like golf courses and a few other open-air sports, among the first places people returned to as public gathering rules lifted. So, maybe more drowning was a result of more people swimming.

Others note that the same rules that closed public facilities also meant fewer people were trained as lifeguards and fewer kids received swim lessons, factors that could easily lead to a rise in drowning deaths.

Tessa Clemens, a scientist with the CDC who was the lead author of the new report, told National Public Radio that the causes for the pandemic-era surge in drownings were “complex.”

“We know that many public pools closed during the COVID-19 pandemic, which limited the availability of swimming lessons,” Clemens said. “Once pools reopened, many facilities faced shortages of trained swimming instructors and lifeguards, which further reduced availability of swimming lessons and safe swimming areas.”

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