Accused violent white supremacist who lived in Huntington Beach gets time served

• December 13, 2024

An accused founder of a violent Southern California white supremacist organization who lived in Huntington Beach was sentenced on Friday, Dec. 13, in downtown Los Angeles to the two years he already served on a federal charge of inciting brawls at political rallies across the state.

Robert Rundo, 34, who lived in Huntington Beach, pleaded guilty in September to one count of conspiracy to violate the federal Anti-Riot Act, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office.

Rundo was extradited from Romania last year after spending nearly a year on the run. Rundo was expected to be released from custody sometime Friday, Dec. 13, prosecutors said.

According to the U.S. Attorney’s Office, Rundo was a founding member of a now-defunct South Bay organization that represented itself as “a combat-ready, militant group of a new nationalist white supremacy and identity movement.” An indictment also says that Rundo and his colleagues attended a number of peaceful protests, where they chased down and violently attacked counter-protesters.

“Mr. Rundo’s cowardly and unprovoked acts of violence were unjustly carried out upon his victims, leaving those who were victimized, their families, and our community torn by hate,” Akil Davis, assistant director in charge of the FBI’s Los Angeles field office, said in a statement after Rundo pleaded guilty.

The indictment was dismissed in February for the second time in five years by then-U.S. District Judge Cormac Carney. The now-retired judge had rejected criminal charges in the case in 2019, after Rundo’s attorneys argued that the Anti-Riot Act cited by federal prosecutors was “unconstitutionally over-broad.”

Carney concluded that the government selectively prosecuted Rundo and Robert Boman, 31, of Torrance while ignoring violence by members of far-left extremist groups because the white supremacist organization engaged in what the government and many believe is more offensive speech.

Boman — who is charged with one count of conspiracy to violate the Anti-Riot Act and one count of rioting — has a February trial date set, according to court records.

In the 9th Circuit opinion in July, Judge Milan D. Smith Jr., a nominee of President George W. Bush, knocked down Carney’s selective prosecution theory, writing that the opposing left- and right-wing groups were not similar enough to meet the required standard.

The rallies involved in the case were on May 25, 2017, at Bolsa Chica Beach in Huntington Beach; April 15, 2017, in Berkeley; and June 10, 2017, in San Bernardino.

​ Orange County Register 

OpenAI whistleblower found dead in San Francisco apartment

• December 13, 2024

SAN FRANCISCO — A former OpenAI researcher known for whistleblowing the blockbuster artificial intelligence company facing a swell of lawsuits over its business model has died, authorities confirmed this week.

Suchir Balaji, 26, was found dead inside his Buchanan Street apartment on Nov. 26, San Francisco police and the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner said. Police had been called to the Lower Haight residence at about 1 p.m. that day, after receiving a call asking officers to check on his well-being, a police spokesperson said.

The medical examiner’s office has not released his cause of death, but police officials this week said there is “currently, no evidence of foul play.”

Information he held was expected to play a key part in lawsuits against the San Francisco-based company.

Balaji’s death comes three months after he publicly accused OpenAI of violating U.S. copyright law while developing ChatGPT, a generative artificial intelligence program that has become a moneymaking sensation used by hundreds of millions of people across the world.

Its public release in late 2022 spurred a torrent of lawsuits against OpenAI from authors, computer programmers and journalists, who say the company illegally stole their copyrighted material to train its program and elevate its value past $150 billion.

The Mercury News and seven sister news outlets are among several newspapers, including the New York Times, to sue OpenAI in the past year.

In an interview with the New York Times published Oct. 23, Balaji argued OpenAI was harming businesses and entrepreneurs whose data were used to train ChatGPT.

“If you believe what I believe, you have to just leave the company,” he told the outlet, adding that “this is not a sustainable model for the internet ecosystem as a whole.”

Balaji grew up in Cupertino before attending UC Berkeley to study computer science. It was then he became a believer in the potential benefits that artificial intelligence could offer society, including its ability to cure diseases and stop aging, the Times reported. “I thought we could invent some kind of scientist that could help solve them,” he told the newspaper.

But his outlook began to sour in 2022, two years after joining OpenAI as a researcher. He grew particularly concerned about his assignment of gathering data from the internet for the company’s GPT-4 program, which analyzed text from nearly the entire internet to train its artificial intelligence program, the news outlet reported.

The practice, he told the Times, ran afoul of the country’s “fair use” laws governing how people can use previously published work. In late October, he posted an analysis on his personal website arguing that point.

No known factors “seem to weigh in favor of ChatGPT being a fair use of its training data,” Balaji wrote. “That being said, none of the arguments here are fundamentally specific to ChatGPT either, and similar arguments could be made for many generative AI products in a wide variety of domains.”

Reached by this news agency, Balaji’s mother requested privacy while grieving the death of her son.

In a Nov. 18 letter filed in federal court, attorneys for The New York Times named Balaji as someone who had “unique and relevant documents” that would support their case against OpenAI. He was among at least 12 people — many of them past or present OpenAI employees — the newspaper had named in court filings as having material helpful to their case, ahead of depositions.

Generative artificial intelligence programs work by analyzing an immense amount of data from the internet and using it to answer prompts submitted by users, or to create text, images or videos.

When OpenAI released its ChatGPT program in late 2022, it turbocharged an industry of companies seeking to write essays, make art and create computer code. Many of the most valuable companies in the world now work in the field of artificial intelligence, or manufacture the computer chips needed to run those programs. OpenAI’s own value nearly doubled in the past year.

News outlets have argued that OpenAI and Microsoft — which is in business with OpenAI also also has been sued by The Mercury News — have plagiarized and stole its articles, undermining their business models.

“Microsoft and OpenAI simply take the work product of reporters, journalists, editorial writers, editors and others who contribute to the work of local newspapers — all without any regard for the efforts, much less the legal rights, of those who create and publish the news on which local communities rely,” the newspapers’ lawsuit said.

OpenAI has staunchly refuted those claims, stressing that all of its work remains legal under “fair use” laws.

“We see immense potential for AI tools like ChatGPT to deepen publishers’ relationships with readers and enhance the news experience,” the company said when the lawsuit was filed.

Jakob Rodgers is a senior breaking news reporter. Call, text or send him an encrypted message via Signal at 510-390-2351, or email him at [email protected].

​ Orange County Register 

Kings seek reset against Rangers and possibly Jonathan Quick

• December 13, 2024

The Kings snapped their winning streak Thursday and things of the past will persist as a theme Saturday at Madison Square Garden, where they’ll face the New York Rangers and former Kings luminary Jonathan Quick.

Quick has not been confirmed as the starter but he played both games against the Kings last year – he split the decisions by posting a .942 save percentage and 1.52 goals-against average – and he’s roughly due for a nod in lieu of Igor Shesterkin, who recently signed the richest contract in NHL history for a goalie.

Whether they face the highest-priced netminder in hockey or the one that brought their franchise its only two Stanley Cups in 2012 and 2014, the Kings will be looking to move past Thursday’s low-wattage offensive performance in New Jersey. They managed just 13 shots against the Devils, the lowest total not only for the Kings across the past seven games but for their opponents as well. They’d been outshot twice during the streak (by the Ducks and Dallas Stars) and otherwise outshot opponents by double digits.

“We were trying to be too fancy, instead of shooting we were trying to pass it. We have to keep it simple,” defenseman Jordan Spence told reporters. “We’d won six games in a row for a reason, we played the Kings’ way, putting pucks behind them, shooting a lot of pucks and going to the dirty areas. We’ve just got to move on and play against the Rangers on Saturday.”

The Kings had allowed two goals or fewer in each of their six consecutive wins and in nine of their past 10 games overall, with seven one-goal-allowed efforts mixed in before the loss in Newark. David Rittich led the way during that span and made saves that were as timely as they were challenging to keep the Devils at bay, especially early when the Kings’ attack was flat.

“I think (Rittich) played really well. He kept us in the game. There were a lot of high-quality chances that they had where he made big saves,” Spence said. “That’s one of the reasons we’ve been winning a lot, the (goaltending) that we have.”

Spence also mentioned that the Kings fed into the Devils’ transition-oriented approach. Coach Jim Hiller remarked that the Kings had full possession before the Devils and Jack Hughes, who factored into all three goals and scored the game-winner, came back at them for scores.

“All three of the goals, we had the puck on our stick and five seconds, six, seven seconds later, it was in the back of our net,” Hiller said.

The Rangers have grown accustomed to pucks in the back of their net in short order as they’ve surrendered five or more goals eight times already in 2024-25. The 2024 Eastern Conference finalists’ 5-0-1 start now feels like a memory almost as distant as Quick accepting the Conn Smythe trophy in 2012. They had lost eight out of 10 games prior to Wednesday’s 3-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres and, amid that funk, they traded captain Jacob Trouba to the Ducks, desperately dumping his $8 million cap hit.

Winger Artemi Panarin (35 points) and defenseman Adam Fox (25 points) continue to spearhead the Blue Shirts’ offense. Quick began the year 4-0-0 with a .968 save percentage and two shutouts. He has since lost two of his three most recent appearances, and turned in a save percentage of .850 or worse in all three outings.

Kings at New York Rangers

When: 10 a.m. Saturday

Where: Madison Square Garden, New York

TV: FDSNW

​ Orange County Register 

Gear up with the best men’s ski boots this season

• December 13, 2024

Which men’s ski boots are best?

Although some skiers are more interested in the visual appeal of their downhill ski gear, when it comes to finding the right men’s ski boots, performance must trump style.

Ski boots need to perform at a high level, protecting the skier’s lower legs from injury, while also delivering the performance required to ski successfully. Ski boots must be extremely stiff to transfer the movement of your legs into the skis.

Our favorite pair of men’s ski boots is the Dalbello Sports Lupo AX 120 Alpine Touring Ski Boot, which deliver excellent quality for the serious skier.

What to know before you buy men’s ski boots

When shopping for ski boots, pay particular attention to the flex rating. This measures the ability of the skier to flex his ankle while wearing the boot.

Stiffer boots keep the ankle from bending, which delivers the highest level of performance. Recreational skiers who don’t ski at high speeds or don’t need to make sharp turns can use a boot with a little more flex to it for comfort.

Flex ratings for men’s ski boots:

• 75 and lower: The most flexible boots, delivering the highest level of comfort for inexperienced skiers.
• 75 to 125: These ratings represent mid-level boots, which will fit the needs of a typical skier.
• 125 and higher: These are best for the most experienced skiers who will be on rough terrain and need maximum performance from the boots.

Understand that the manufacturers of boots set their own flex ratings, as no industry standard exists. You’ll have to trust the accuracy of what the manufacturer provides.

What to look for in quality men’s ski boots

Once you have a handle on the flex rating you need, you can select the designs you want in your ski boots. Although the majority of men’s ski boots have a similar design, there are subtle differences between models that can help you focus on the best choice for your skill level and needs.

• Exterior: The hard plastic exterior of the boots may consist of two or three different connected pieces. You often can pick from different colors in the plastic.
• Liner: A liner consists of a flexible material that protects the foot from the hard plastic outer shell of the boot. Thickness varies in the available liners, as thicker liners can deliver extra warmth and padding. Some liner materials will mold to the shape of your foot, creating the best possible fit.
• Insole: The insole supports and protects the bottom of your foot while in the boot. If you want more customized cushioning or support, you’ll often have to purchase a separate insole, as most men’s ski boots ship with thin, cheap insoles.
• Buckles: The majority of ski boots have three or four buckles. Boots aimed at experienced skiers may have three buckles, while boots for inexperienced skiers are more likely to have four buckles.

How much you can expect to spend on men’s ski boots

Skiers who need a basic level of performance in alpine ski boots can expect to pay $100-$350 for a pair. The highest-performing ski boots will run $350-$1,000.

Men’s ski boots FAQ

Do I need to match my brand of ski boots to my skis?

A. No. You can use almost any ski boots with any skis. The bindings on the skis should be adjustable so they can fit the soles of your ski boots.

Why do ski boots have to be so awkward for walking?

A. Ski boots must be extremely stiff so you can control the skis safely. When you detach the skis and are walking in the boots, some boots have a walk mode that allows a little extra flex in the material.

What are the best men’s ski boots to buy?

Top men’s ski boots

Dalbello Sports Lupo AX 120 Alpine Touring Ski Boot – 2023

What you need to know: These lightweight boots that have the quality and performance required for skiers who love the sport.

What you’ll love: The high-quality liners create a comfortable, tight fit. They have an easy-to-use three-piece design.

What you should consider: They are expensive.

Top men’s ski boots for the money

Salomon’s QST Pro 100 GW Ski Boots

What you need to know: These high-quality boots have medium flexibility, making them more comfortable than other options.

What you’ll love: You can choose from three different instep buckle positions, allowing you to customize the fit and making the boots even more comfortable. The last can be expanded to accommodate wider feet.

What you should consider: These are not the sturdiest boots for those who want to ski under extreme conditions or at great speeds.

Worth checking out

Rossignol EVO 70 Men’s Ski Boots

What you need to know: These ski boots have an adjustable, relaxed fit for all-day support on the slopes.

What you’ll love: They have custom liners for unique support. They’re also easy to put on and take off and are lighter than other models.

What you should consider: Some users found the sole to be less comfortable than advertised.

Prices listed reflect time and date of publication and are subject to change.

Check out our Daily Deals for the best products at the best prices and sign up here to receive the BestReviews weekly newsletter full of shopping inspo and sales.

BestReviews spends thousands of hours researching, analyzing and testing products to recommend the best picks for most consumers. BestReviews and its newspaper partners may earn a commission if you purchase a product through one of our links.

​ Orange County Register 

Matty Matheson of ‘The Bear’ fame to open burger spot in Costa Mesa

• December 13, 2024

Matty Matheson, chef, author and actor who appears on FX’s drama “The Bear” as comic-relief handyman Neil Fak (he’s also a producer and consultant on the Emmy-winning series), will open the first U.S. location of his Matty’s Patty’s Burger Club in Orange County, tentatively scheduled for Friday, Dec. 20.

Originally conceived as a pandemic-era pop-up in Hawaii in 2020, Matty’s Patty’s Burger Club opened its first brick-and-mortar location in Toronto in December that year.

Matheson and his business partner, Pat Tenore, will open their second location in Costa Mesa, the headquarters of Tenore’s surfwear company, RVCA. Tenore has close ties to Orange County; he’s an alum of Corona del Mar High School.

ALSO SEE: Orange County restaurants starring in “Real Housewives” enjoy the spotlight

Menu-wise, Matty’s Patty’s serves up smashburgers galore, featuring patties of beef (pressed flat onto a griddle to create a thin patty with crispy, lacy edges) and American cheese on sesame seed milk buns, ranging from single to triple stacks. Other fare, at least according to the menu at Matty’s Patty’s Toronto location, includes, fries, onion rings, chili cheese fries, the glory known as poutine, milkshakes and more.

Matteson, formerly the executive chef of Parts & Labour in Toronto, recently launched a menu at Detroit-based Standby that, according to Eater Detroit, features dishes like coconut shrimp with jerk mayo, mortadella sliders, and Alabama barbecue grilled wings.

His other ventures include Matheson Cookware and Our House Hospitality Company, a hospitality group based out of Ontario, Canada.

Find it: 1734 Newport Blvd., Costa Mesa

​ Orange County Register 

LA County cats die after drinking raw milk, bird flu suspected

• December 13, 2024

Public health officials are investigating two possible cases of H5 bird flu in cats that ingested recalled raw milk in Los Angeles County.

According to the county Department of Public Health, the two felines consumed raw milk linked to a recall of products from Raw Farm LLC. The cats subsequently developed symptoms including lack of appetite, fever and neurological signs, and both later died.

The two cats tested positive for Influenza A, which is considered a rare result in cats, health officials said Thursday.

DPH officials said they are awaiting the results of tests to confirm suspicions that the cats contracted H5 bird flu.

“The nationwide H5 bird flu outbreak has seen other cats infected with the virus after consuming infected raw milk,” according to a DPH statement.

“People who had direct contact with the cats are monitoring for symptoms and have been offered antiviral prophylaxis,” according to the agency. “There have been no human cases of bird flu associated with exposure to these cats yet identified.”

“The risk of H5 bird flu remains low in Los Angeles County, but this suspected case of the virus in a pet cat that consumed raw milk is a reminder that consuming raw dairy products can lead to severe illness in cats,” Barbara Ferrer, director of DPH, said in a statement. “To avoid the spread of disease, including H5 bird flu, we strongly encourage residents and their pets to avoid raw dairy and undercooked meat products, limit contact with sick or dead animals, report sick or dead birds and keep pets or poultry away from wild animals and birds.”

Authorities strongly urged residents to avoid consuming raw milk and to not feed it to their pets. This includes frozen raw milk products, since freezing does not eliminate germs that can cause illness, health officials said. Pasteurized milk remains safe to drink.

​ Orange County Register 

Fight fine lines while you rest with these night creams

• December 13, 2024

Which anti-aging night cream is best?

Aging gracefully is easier said than done. That’s because no one enjoys looking in the mirror and seeing more fine lines and wrinkles than they had on their previous birthday. If your skincare routine has the right anti-aging night cream, though, you can help slow the hands of time from affecting your face. A night cream is one of the most intensive anti-aging treatments and can help soften fine lines and wrinkles, lighten age spots, improve skin elasticity and smooth crepey texture while you sleep. Anti-aging night creams are often hit-or-miss, so you need to know what to look for to find an effective formula.

Our buying guide is full of handy tips to help you choose the best anti-aging night cream for your skincare routine. We’ve also included some specific night cream recommendations, such as our top choice, the Murad’s Retinol Youth Renewal Night Cream, which contains retinol and red algae extract to help reduce lines, improve elasticity and brighten the skin.

What to know before you buy an anti-aging cream

Water-based vs. oil-based

Water-based anti-aging night creams usually have a lightweight gel texture, which is ideal for oily and acne-prone skin because it won’t clog the pores. They’re usually not as hydrating, so they’re not the best option for dry skin or cold weather months when your skin is typically dehydrated.

Oil-based anti-aging night creams are the most common option and have a rich luxurious cream-like texture. They’re extremely hydrating, which makes them perfect if you have dry or dehydrated skin. Oil-based formulas aren’t the best choice for oily or acne-prone skin; however, you can find some noncomedogenic oil-based night creams that won’t clog your pores.

Ingredients

• Retinol: Retinol is a vitamin A derivative that supports cell turnover. It helps soften the appearance of fine lines and wrinkles and brighten dull skin. It can also trigger the production of collagen, which helps boost skin elasticity and fade dark spots.
• Alpha hydroxy acids: These, like glycolic acid, are extremely effective for exfoliating the top layer of dead cells from the skin. They can help soften, brighten and smooth the skin.
• Vitamin C: Vitamin C is an effective antioxidant that can help address free radical damage that results from sun exposure. It’s effective for brightening the skin, too.
• Peptides: Peptides are amino acids that comprise collagen. They help boost skin elasticity to plump and firm the skin.
• Hyaluronic acid: This is a hydrating ingredient that binds moisture to the skin and helps give it a plumper appearance that diminishes the look of fine lines and wrinkles.

What to look for in a quality anti-aging night cream

Hypoallergenic

The ingredients in effective anti-aging night creams are usually potent, so they can sometimes cause irritation as your skin becomes used to the formula. If you have sensitive skin, opt for a hypoallergenic night cream. It might still cause an allergic reaction, but the risk isn’t as great.

Fragrance-free

Many night creams often have a strong perfumed scent to give them a more luxurious feel. If you have sensitive skin, synthetic fragrances can cause skin irritations — and even cause headaches in people who are triggered by strong fragrances. Some anti-aging night creams are available in fragrance-free formulas, so you don’t have to worry about having a reaction.

Noncomedogenic

If you have oily or acne-prone skin, pick an anti-aging night cream that’s noncomedogenic. That means it won’t clog your pores or contribute to breakouts. Some formulas may even be labeled as nonacnegenic, which means they’re not likely to cause acne.

How much you can expect to spend on an anti-aging night cream

Anti-aging night creams generally cost between $8 and $160. You’ll usually pay $8 to $20 for budget-friendly formulas with fewer proven anti-aging ingredients, while creams with more effective ingredients typically go for $20 to $45. If you’re looking for a high-end option, luxury anti-aging night creams can cost anywhere from $50 to $160.

Anti-aging night cream FAQ

Q. How long does it usually take to see results with an anti-aging night cream?

A. It depends on the skin issues you have and the formula that you’re using, as well as what other skincare products you use. In most cases, you should see results within one to two months.

Q. Can I use an anti-aging night cream during the day?

A. Night creams often contain ingredients that make the skin more sensitive to the sun, so they’re meant for use at night when you won’t face sun exposure. They don’t contain any SPF either, so you won’t have any sun protection at all.

What anti-aging night creams are best to buy?

Top anti-aging cream

Murad’s Retinol Youth Renewal Night Cream

What you need to know: An effective anti-aging formula that stars retinol, one of the most potent topical anti-aging ingredients around, and it helps soften the appearance of fine lines and wrinkles.

What you’ll love: It features retinol and red algae extract, which are full of peptides that help boost skin elasticity. It sinks into the skin easily and helps reveal brighter, more glowing skin. It can also diminish the look of large pores and dark spots. It’s effective for all skin types.

What you should consider: It’s pricey, and the jar doesn’t hold much product.

Top anti-aging cream for the money

Night Cream by Olay Regenerist Night Recovery Anti-Aging Face Moisturizer

What you need to know: It’s not quite as luxurious as high-end brands, but Olay is a trusted name in the skincare game and the Regenerist line always earns high marks when compared to the competition.

What you’ll love: This lightweight, fragrance-free formula is safe for sensitive skin. It absorbs into the skin easily without leaving behind a greasy residue. It leaves skin feeling smoother and softens the look of fine lines and wrinkles. It delivers moisture that helps plump the skin.

What you should consider: The cream can dry up in the tub. Some users have an issue with the cream beading up when it’s rubbed in.

Worth checking out

Perricone MD Multi-Action Overnight Treatment

What you need to know: This anti-aging night cream uses natural ingredients to provide soft, luminous skin.

What you’ll love: It features alpha-lipoic acid to smooth skin texture and DMAE to firm the skin. It softens fine lines and helps reduce puffiness under the eyes. It provides plenty of moisture and leaves skin more even, too.

What you should consider: Some users aren’t fans of the fragrance.

Prices listed reflect time and date of publication and are subject to change.

Check out our Daily Deals for the best products at the best prices and sign up here to receive the BestReviews weekly newsletter full of shopping inspo and sales.

BestReviews spends thousands of hours researching, analyzing and testing products to recommend the best picks for most consumers. BestReviews and its newspaper partners may earn a commission if you purchase a product through one of our links.

​ Orange County Register 

Chapman, UCLA economists see clouds ahead in Trump’s policies

• December 13, 2024

Economists at two Southern California universities see new reasons to worry ahead, namely policies from the nation’s next president.

They warn in new forecasts released this week that the economy may stumble in 2025 because of controversial policies promised by President-elect Donald Trump.

Economist James Doti, president emeritus at Chapman University, said the economy “still appears to be strong,” even though a long period of declining inflation could reverse course under Trump.

A year ago, Doti’s reading of the tea leaves showed “very slow growth” and no recession in 2024.

Today, he’s sticking to a similar tale of “slow growth” that now extends through 2025. New to the mix is “some upward pressure” on inflation due to proposed tariffs and mass deportations Trump has vowed to launch after his inauguration in January.

Economist Jerry Nickelsburg at UCLA agreed with Doti’s analysis.

“The underlying fundamentals of the economy are strong. They have been for some time, which is why we did not say that we were going to have a recession in 2023 or 2022,” said the director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. “Now, that doesn’t mean that geopolitical events or different policies from Washington that are not in our forecast couldn’t generate a recession. It’s just not in the data right now.” 

Both economists said Trump is inheriting a strong economy that will grow more slowly than previously forecast while it adjusts to new national economic policies.

Cloudy times

The clarity of post-presidential election forecasts at Chapman and UCLA are clouded by Trump’s plans to implement several economic policies promised during his 2024 campaign.

Among the most controversial policies are new or increased tariffs on the nation’s largest trading partners – including Canada, China and Mexico. Policies also include mass deportations, tax cuts and deregulation.

Doti believes Trump’s vow to deport of 500,000 to 1 million undocumented immigrants and 10%-25% tariffs on imported goods could push inflation closer to 3% than the Fed’s desired 2% level.

How these policies manifest is not necessarily clear, considering practical, legal and political constraints on implementation, according to Nickelsburg.

The UCLA professor of economics said this month’s forecast was one of the most difficult ones he’s ever written, with the exception of a recession prediction four years ago as the COVID-19 pandemic began.

“When we did our March forecast in 2020, we had no idea how the pandemic was going to play out, and so there was a great deal of uncertainty then as well as now,” he said. “Economic policy in Washington is changing in a pretty fundamental way, so that increases uncertainty until we get some clarity as to what policies are going to be implemented.”

Meanwhile, UCLA predicts a slowdown in interest rate cuts as the federal government grapples with those new policies. Nickelsburg sees the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its board of governors meeting Dec. 18. He expects a pause on cuts until 2026 when the economy has absorbed the impacts of tariffs.

The Fed could end up with interest rates hovering between 4% and 4.25% in 2026, he said.

Doti has a different take, saying the Fed won’t cut rates in December and will instead take a wait-and-see approach. He expects the central bank will make only two, 25 basis-point cuts in 2025.

“The reason we don’t think there’ll be a cut in rates next week is because we still have high inflation (2.7% for the year ended in November 2024), and it’s above the Fed’s target range of 2%, and GDP growth is at 2.8%, and job growth has still been very strong,” Doti said. “Given the Fed’s cautious approach, it’ll hold back on making further cuts.”

Growth in gross domestic product, used to measure the nation’s economic health, is expected to fall to 1.4% by the end of 2025 from 2.8% in the 2024’s third quarter, he said.

Tough housing market

Both economists said the state of housing in California is showing financial strain.

On the construction front, residential permits in California are forecast to rise by 12.9% in 2025, despite continuing high mortgage rates, Doti said.

He argued that high mortgage rates may indirectly spur new construction.

“There is a paucity of resale homes on the market because homeowners don’t want to sell and lose their sweetheart locked-in mortgages,” he said. “That has led to a sharp drop in resale home sales. The dearth of resale homes on the market is buttressing demand for new homes, often available for sale at heavily subsidized financing rates.”

Nickelsburg said normalization is slowly returning to the California housing market, but potential construction cost increases due to tariffs and labor shortages could slow that process.

“Builders should be responding with new development given existing homes sales are at depression levels,” said Nickelsburg.

Tightening job market

Both forecasts raised concerns about the jobs picture.

Doti sees economic growth in California hampered by population losses, which he blames on the state’s regulatory and tax burdens, which have led people and businesses to leave for cheaper states like Florida and Texas.

California’s job growth is forecast to rise 4.6% to 18.2 million in 2025, up from 17.4 million in 2019, but trailing U.S. job growth of 5.9% over the same period.

The flight of people from the state also has lowered retail sales tax revenue, prompting some cities to raise sales tax rates in order to replenish budgets left with financial gaps.

Data from Chapman showed fewer people are shopping, which translates to less tax revenue for cities. For the year-period that ended June 30, 2024, retail sales fell 4% in Orange County, 2.3% in Los Angeles County, 1.2% in the Inland Empire and 0.8% in San Diego County.

For Nickelsburg, the big unknown on jobs will be the mass deportation and tariff policies of the incoming president, and their impact on a wide of industries including agriculture, construction, leisure and hospitality, retail trade and transportation and warehousing industries.

Taken together, the deportations and tariffs will raise the prices for many goods and services, and potentially cause product shortages and higher labor costs as jobs go unfilled, he argued.

“The uncertainty regarding the future path of unemployment is more elevated than usual because the impact of mass deportations on unemployment is not well understood due to limited empirical research on the subject,” according to Nickelsburg.

​ Orange County Register