It’s not complicated. The policies of California Democrats are driving up gas prices.

• October 18, 2023

“Well, if you ever plan to motor west,” wrote songwriter Bobby Troup in 1964, “take my way, that’s the highway that’s the best. Get your kicks on Route 66.”

Today, he might write it differently.

“Well, if you ever plan to motor west, take the highway to the driveway of the bank.”

Here’s what it would cost you for regular-grade gas if you made that “Route 66” trip today from Chicago to St. Louis, Oklahoma City, Amarillo, Gallup, Flagstaff, don’t forget Winona, Kingman, Barstow, and San Bernardino:

The average price of regular-grade gas in Illinois on Tuesday was $3.61.

In Missouri, $3.27.

In Oklahoma, $3.19

In Texas, $3.01

In New Mexico, $3.51

In Arizona, $4.28

In California, $5.57

Of course, these are averages, and your neighborhood may vary. On Sunday in the San Fernando Valley, 16.7 gallons of regular gas cost me $103.60. I’ll do the math for you: $6.20 per gallon.

The cost of crude oil is the biggest driver of gasoline prices, but that doesn’t explain the cost differential as you go over state borders. Policy choices are the difference.

In California, a long list of policy choices are contributing to the high price of gasoline.

Even the worldwide price of crude oil is affected by California policy choices. The decisions to cut back oil production and import oil from other countries have an effect on supply and demand. In 1986, California production peaked at 402.23 million barrels of oil. That was 59.4% of all the oil that went to California refineries. That same year, foreign imports of oil to California totaled only 36.87 million barrels, just 5.5% of the oil refined in California. (The rest came from Alaska.)

Last year, after decades of grinding the domestic oil and gas industry with restrictions and lectures, oil production in California was down to 136 million barrels, or 25.8% of the oil refined in the state. Another 80.25 million barrels came from Alaska, and 311.53 million barrels were imported from countries including Saudi Arabia and Iraq. That’s 59% of the oil refined in California coming into the state from foreign sources instead of local production.

Even as recently as 2017, California’s local production provided 31.3% of the oil that went to California refineries. But there’s no sign that anyone in Sacramento would like to reverse the downward trend, so you can expect the grinding, the restrictions and the hypocritical lectures to continue.

Other policy choices contribute to the high price of gasoline in California, like the 58 cents per gallon in state taxes, on top of federal taxes. The most recent legislation raising gas taxes in the state also included an annual inflation adjustment, so when prices go up and inflation goes up, drivers get slammed twice.

California also requires refineries to buy permits for emitting greenhouse gases, part of a program run by the California Air Resources Board. This regulatory scheme adds varying amounts to the price of all energy in the state, and the money that’s paid for the permits goes into a fund in the state Treasury, just like a tax. Lawmakers decide how they’re going to spend the money, just like a tax. But the courts have said it’s not a tax.

That worked out well for the California High-Speed Rail Authority. The ballot measure that authorized the initial debt financing for the project prohibited any tax increase or public subsidy, but the boondoggle caught a break with the court ruling, because it meant the money you’re paying in the price of gasoline and diesel for these permits could be used to build the bullet train.

And that’s exactly what’s happening. Twenty-five percent of the revenue that goes into the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund is routed to the High-Speed Rail Authority to pay the high salaries of its executives, the paintings and animations used to show you how great it’s going to be, and the cost of constructing the infrastructure on the route that is definitely not San Francisco to Los Angeles.

Other factors, like smog-reduction regulations, also contribute to the cost.

It’s enough to make anyone who wants to motor west decide to make a U-turn.

Write [email protected] and follow her on Twitter @Susan_Shelley

​ Orange County Register 

Fryer on Football: Previews and predictions for Week 9’s other top games

• October 18, 2023

GAME OF THE WEEK

NO. 3 SANTA MARGARITA (5-3, 1-2) VS. NO. 6 SERVITE (4-4, 0-3)

Where, when: Cerritos College, Friday, 7 p.m.

Analysis: This is a big Trinity League game for Servite. The Friars need a fifth win to guarantee that they will finish at .500, the threshold for being a candidate for an at-large berth in the upcoming CIF Southern Section playoffs. The top three teams in a six-team league like the Trinity League are guaranteed entry into the playoffs; teams that finish fourth, fifth and sixth can be considered for at-large berths if they are .500 or better. A look at the CalPreps ratings that CIF-SS will use to place teams into playoff divisions indicates that Santa Margarita probably is a sure thing to be in Division 1, which was a 10-team bracket last year and contained two at-large teams. Division 1 could be an eight-team bracket or a 12-team bracket this year. As for this game, Santa Margarita last week beat JSerra 34-31 on Ryan Gass’ late field goal. Servite was unable to convert its late chances last week against Orange Lutheran in a 36-33 loss. The key player in this matchup is Santa Margarita sophomore receiver Trent Mosley, who last week produced 425 all-purpose yards including 232 yards on 10 receptions. He will be the difference-maker.

Winner: Santa Margarita

NO. 1 MATER DEI (7-1, 2-1) VS. NO. 2 ORANGE LUTHERAN (5-3, 2-1)

Where, when: Orange Coast College, Thursday, 7 p.m.

Analysis: This is a matchup of the top two teams in the county rankings. While there is a large chasm between the Nos. 1 and 2 teams we know that Mater Dei is not unbeatable as was proven last week when the Monarchs lost to St. John Bosco’s near-perfect performance 28-0. The previous time Mater Dei was shut out was in 2011 by Orange Lutheran 28-0. That also is the most-recent time the Lancers beat the Monarchs. Quarterback Elijah Brown last week did not get the offensive line protection he usually is provided. The Monarchs’ top running back, Jordon Davison, was injured early and might be out for this game, but there is plenty of depth there, including speedy Nathaniel Frazier who will likely be among the top sprinters in country track this spring. Orange Lutheran running back Steve Chavez surpassed 100 rushing yards for the fourth week in a row in the Lancers’ 36-33 win over Servite. The Monarchs are an unhappy team after the Bosco loss and this might be a bad week to be in their path.

Winner: Mater Dei

TROY (5-3, 3-0) VS. SONORA (7-1, 3-0)

Where, when: La Habra High, Friday, 7 p.m.

Analysis: It’s the battle for first place in the Freeway League. Troy beat the usual league champion La Habra 27-21 two weeks ago and also has league wins over Fullerton and Buena Park. Sonora’s league wins were against Sunny Hills, Buena Park and Fullerton. In Troy’s 21-7 win over Buena Park last week the Warriors threw only eight passes while rushing for 287 yards including Declan Kai Healey’s 104 yards and two touchdowns on eight carries and Caleb Huss’ 99 yards. Troy sophomore linebacker Ethan Mundt had 10 tackles with a sack against Buena Park. Sonora, which plays La Habra next week in the league finale, rushed for 331 yards in its 43-36 win over Fullerton, led by junior Anthony Abad’s 221 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. Troy’s win over La Habra is the most impressive win for either team.

Winner: Troy

Connor Smith (3) of El Modena breaks up the pass to Matthew Baldonado (29)of Cypress in a football game at Western High School in Anaheim on Thursday, August 31, 2023. (Photo by Leonard Ortiz, Orange County Register/SCNG)

NO. 20 EL MODENA (4-4, 1-0) VS. NO. 23 EL DORADO (4-4, 1-0)

Where, when: Valencia High, Friday, 7 p.m.

Analysis: This one is for first place in the four-team North Hills League. They have a common opponent, La Habra. El Modena beat La Habra 38-35. El Dorado lost to La Habra 40-16. El Dorado showed how much it has improved when it beat Foothill 41-19. El Dorado won its league opener last week over Canyon 41-0 as quarterback Nate Bento and running back J.P. Murray both rushed for more than 100 yards. El Modena beat Esperanza 41-20 in a league game last week. Vanguards quarterback Xzavior Guess completed 23 of 28 passes for 274 yards and two touchdowns. Guess also is an excellent runner. His play-making skills will lead El Modena to the win.

Winner: El Modena

Quarterback Jaden O’Neal (1) of Newport Harbor passes during a Sunset League football game against Edison at Huntington Beach High School in Huntington Beach on Thursday, October 12, 2023. (Photo by Leonard Ortiz, Orange County Register/SCNG)

NO. 14 CORONA DEL MAR (4-4, 1-2) VS. NO. 12 NEWPORT HARBOR (3-5, 1-2)

Where, when: Newport Harbor High, Friday, 7 p.m.

Analysis: This Sunset League game is the annual Battle of the Bay. Corona del Mar has won the rivalry game 10 years in a row. Newport Harbor is the better team this year. Sailors quarterback Jaden O’Neal is developing into a star player. He has completed 64 percent of his passes for 1,801 yards and 19 touchdowns. Newport Harbor lost to county No. 10 Edison last week 31-28. Corona del Mar was overwhelmed by Los Alamitos last week 69-14. Newport Harbor was similarly overwhelmed by Los Alamitos 62-14 on Oct. 6. O’Neal was hurt late in the Edison game. The key to this game is Newport Harbor’s defense, which is allowing 32 points a game. Look for that defense to come through and for O’Neal to connect continuously with ace receivers Jordan Anderson and Josiah Lamarque to get Newport Harbor that long-awaited win and the bell trophy that goes to the victor.

Winner: Newport Harbor

Fryer on Football last week: 3-2

Season to date: 31-14

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​ Orange County Register 

Lakers ready to close preseason with ‘a little bit of a test run’ against Suns

• October 18, 2023

TEMECULA — After a preseason that included stops throughout the West Coast, the Lakers are ready to wrap up their six-game exhibition slate on Thursday night against the Phoenix Suns at Acrisure Arena in Thousand Palms.

They’re entering the matchup with the intention of using it as “a little bit of a test run” – playing the core players who are healthy – ahead of their regular-season opener against the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday at Ball Arena.

“That’s the plan going into it,” Lakers coach Darvin Ham said after Wednesday’s practice. “We plan to follow through with that. But not get too crazy. We’re going to come in and play a real, normal, competitive basketball game and see how we fit together in long stretches.”

This means LeBron James and Austin Reaves are expected to be available and play alongside the other known starters – D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Davis – after playing in two preseason games apiece so far.

The Lakers have been cautious with the workloads of James and Reaves: James because he’s entering his 21st NBA season and Reaves because he played deep into the summer with Team USA during the FIBA World Cup.

The expectation is that the Lakers will try to replicate a regular-season game, rotation-wise – at least for three quarters.

Taurean Prince, an eight-year NBA veteran who joined the Lakers in free agency, appears to be the leader for the fifth starting spot but Ham hasn’t disclosed who will play that role. Prince has started in the other two games when the four known starters were available.

When asked what the Lakers need to iron out before the regular-season opener, Prince responded “everything.”

“Nothing is set in stone,” he added. “A lot of room to get better, not only before Denver but throughout the season. We’ll have to make adjustments and get better as we go. That’s all about being a pro and adapting.

The Lakers hosted Wednesday’s annual open practice session at the Pechanga Recreation Center.

After Thursday, the Lakers will have hosted home games in Las Vegas, Anaheim, Los Angeles and Thousand Palms this preseason while playing another in San Francisco.

“We’re a high-profile organization and the people want to see us,” Ham said. “So we kind of handle it all in stride and get our work in when we need to get our work in. We have fans everywhere – NBA markets, [and] non-NBA markets. We want to show our fans appreciation and come out and be able to touch people where normally they don’t get to see us live, in person like this.”

VINCENT UPDATE

Ham said guard Gabe Vincent went through “the whole entire workout” on Wednesday after missing the previous two games because of lower back soreness.

Wednesday’s focus was “continuing to polish up some of our offensive stuff, some of our defensive stuff,” according to Ham, who added that there wasn’t any player-on-player contact during the practice session.

Vincent played in the first three preseason games, averaging 10.3 points and 2.7 assists in 21.8 minutes.

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“We just had some tightness,” Vincent said. “Some general soreness. Just trying to take care of it. Preseason, just try to make sure we make the smartest decision moving forward.”

Ham said Vincent is “trending in the right direction.”

Vincent responded “I feel good about it – we’ll see what’s in store” when asked if he’s confident he’ll be available Thursday against the Suns or Tuesday against the Nuggets.

Forward Jarred Vanderbilt (left heel soreness) is still on track to be reevaluated on Friday after sitting out for most of the preseason.

SUNS AT LAKERS

When: Thursday, 7 p.m.

Where: Acrisure Arena in Thousand Palms

TV/radio: Spectrum SportsNet, 710 AM

Pechanga Recreation Center

LeBron James and Anthony Davis signing autograph for kids after the Lakers’ annual open practice in Temecula. pic.twitter.com/1BjF4LKKsI

— Khobi Price (@khobi_price) October 18, 2023

​ Orange County Register 

UCLA’s Jaylin Davies uses ‘really high football IQ’ to come into his own

• October 18, 2023

Cornerback Jaylin Davies has been a proven ball hawk and an immediate impact player for UCLA since his arrival in 2022. He’s started in each of the last 10 games at UCLA, including the first six games this season.

Davies took over a starting role in the secondary during the last four games of the 2022 season while Devin Kirkwood was out of action due to a hand injury. Davies finished the season on a high note, returning a 52-yard interception for a touchdown in the Sun Bowl against Pittsburgh.

His playmaking ability caught the eye of the UCLA coaching staff and his increased role has helped shore up some of the struggles that plagued the UCLA secondary in recent years.

“He always seems to be around the ball,” coach Chip Kelly said. “I think on all of our big plays in the secondary in the last two years he’s been a part of almost all of them.

“He’s around fumble recoveries, he’s around interceptions. He gets his hand on the ball … but I think this year with him taking another step in his game, I think there’s a lot more consistency to him and he’s a lot more dialed in.”

The former Mater Dei standout, who originally went to Oregon, has recorded 51 total tackles, four interceptions, 11 pass deflections and a fumble recovery.

Kelly has found success with Mater Dei graduates in the secondary before. Safety Quentin Lake became one of the latest Monarchs to compete for the Bruins before being drafted by the Rams in 2022.

“He’s a fun guy, but he really cuts it on when he gets to the game,” UCLA receiver Kam Brown said of the 6-foot redshirt sophomore. “He is a dog and he’s a guy that you can really count on in a tight situation to go out there and make plays.”

Davies’ first interception of this season came against highly touted Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall in the season opener. The turnover came at a crucial moment as the Chanticleers were trailing 14-13 in the third quarter and deep in Bruins territory.

𝐌𝐚𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐜 @jaylin_davies

Jaylin Davies had his first INT of the season & fourth of his career on Saturday! pic.twitter.com/DoCIu2FxeL

— UCLA Football (@UCLAFootball) September 6, 2023

“It was wide splits and it was kind of a long play, so during the time in my head I was like, ‘If he didn’t run a fade, then he would be the third option,’” Davies explained. “I just stuck with my dude and when he came back, the ball was coming so I just got it.”

Not only has Kelly been impressed with Davies’ consistency and development, but he also spoke highly of his ball awareness and knowledge of the game.

“He comes from a really good high school program and really understands the game,” Kelly said. “He has a good feel for the route tree that the receiver is going to run in front of him, but it’s his knowledge of football that’s really high. He’s got a really high football IQ.”

The decision to transfer to UCLA after just one season with Oregon has allowed him to come into his own. The former consensus four-star prospect had just three tackles in two games for the Ducks in 2021.

Davies was a member of the Bruins’ defensive-heavy transfer portal class in 2022 that featured several impact players such as edge rusher Laiatu Latu, linebacker Darius Muasau and defensive linemen Grayson and Gabriel Murphy. Together, they’ve helped UCLA produce a top 15 defense this season.

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This week, Davies will potentially be matched up with receiver Elic Ayomanor when the Bruins travel to Stanford for a Pac-12 game and the last in what has been a long-standing rivalry for more than 98 years.

Ayomanor finished with 13 receptions for 294 yards and three touchdowns in the Cardinal’s 46-43 come-from-behind overtime victory against Colorado on Friday.

Davies and the defense have allowed 205 passing yards a game through six games, which ranks 37th in the country.

​ Orange County Register 

Mortgage applications hit 28-year low as rates keep rising

• October 18, 2023

By Vince Golle | Bloomberg

A measure of US mortgage applications stumbled to an almost three-decade low as borrowing costs increased for a sixth-straight week, indicating further downside momentum for a battered housing market.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s overall index of applications to purchase or refinance a home slumped 6.9% in the week ended Oct. 13 to 166.9. That was the weakest reading since May 1995.

The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage edged up 3 basis points to 7.7%, marking the sixth-straight weekly advance, data out Wednesday showed. The rate on a five-year adjustable mortgage jumped 19 basis points to 6.52%, the second-highest in MBA data back to 2011.

The index of home-purchase applications slid more than 5% to the lowest level since 1995, while the refinancing gauge fell by the most since February.

Mortgage rates tend to move in tandem with Treasury yields. The 10-year note yield rebounded Tuesday to the highest since 2007 after robust economic data indicated the Federal Reserve may have to boost interest rates again.

The MBA survey, which has been conducted weekly since 1990, uses responses from mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The data cover more than 75% of all retail residential mortgage applications in the US.

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​ Orange County Register 

Review: ‘Ain’t Too Proud’ brings the Temptations’ music to life in Costa Mesa

• October 18, 2023

Some musicals do wonderfully well simply due to the first two syllables in the word. The music driving “Ain’t Too Proud: The Life and Times of The Temptations,“ which opened Tuesday, Oct. 17 on the Segerstrom Center stage, is cause for celebration and attendance.

The dozens of pop hits by the Temptations, Motown’s most successful R&B quintet, may be more than a half a century old, but the verve of the group’s singing, as well its synchronized dance moves, are still propulsive and land with feel-great impact.

While the biographic story of the five original band members feels a bit glossed over, with chunks of standalone songs appearing as much for chronological convenience as serving narrative storytelling, the show is up there with “Jersey Boys” as a look-back musical marvel.

That mention of “Jersey Boys” is not coincidental. Both jukebox musicals were directed with a knowing eye by Des McAnuff. He clearly understands how pacing makes these ensemble-driven shows tick.

McAnuff threads the band’s rough and tumble backstory into two or three-minute scenes, just enough narrative weave to provide a reasonable platform for underpinning catchy chunks of 31 songs. These are energetically and faithfully delivered by an efficient 11-piece band.

The story is a straight-forward rendition of the Detroit group’s formation and sustaining power, with the sole remaining member, Otis Williams (Michael Andreaus), acting as emcee, narrating events through the Temptations’ life and times promised in the title.

As lyricist Lin-Manuel Miranda says in “Hamilton” with the song title “Who Lives, Who Dies, Who Tells Your Story,” this is ultimately a version from one of the group’s least visible members. (It’s as if George Harrison lasted longest and wrote the only bio of the Beatles.)

Based on Williams’ Temptations memoir, and Dominique Morisseau’s utilitarian book, the musical is a familiar rendering about those who hit it big, but fall prey to the usual, well-chronicled overindulgences of pop music stars recording, touring, feuding and slighting their personal lives.

These lives are a messy ball of confusion — over the decades, there will be 27 Temptations! Talk about “people moving out, people moving in” — with recreational pharmacology, one of pop music’s enduring miseries, ultimately leading to inter-personal clashes and too-early departures, both from the band and life itself.

This includes the two splashiest Temptations ever, protean vocalist/life forces David Ruffin and Eddie Kendricks. Beyond music and dance, a key to this touring production working as well as it does is in its excellent casting of the two performers.

Elijah Ahmad Lewis is a diabolically apt Ruffin — if nothing else, he implausibly makes Ruffin’s on-stage, thick black-rimmed glasses somehow incredibly cool, just like Ruffin himself. A throaty baritone with great range and power, Lewis also breaks out flashy dance moves (down-to-the-floor splits for a guy this size should not seem this easy).

As a querulous counterpoint, Jalen Harris’ confident tenor lead gives us the Kendricks voice the show requires. In the cover of the band’s first charting single, 1964’s “The Way You Do the Things You Do,” to the indelible “Just My Imagination (Running Away with Me)” in 1971, Kendricks’ last recording with the band, Harris is impactful as a singer and also as a slim, wiry presence.

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Sergio Trujillo’s choreography somehow delivers synchronicity but also allows the five to express themselves through individualized movement, a nifty hybrid.

Opening night sound was satisfactory (sometimes lower ranges can seem muddied or absent early in a Segerstrom run… if the hall is hosting Motown, it’s gotta give us bass lines).

The staging is unfussy. Effective, minimal props slide on and off and most of the visual impact comes from Peter Negrini’s projection design above and behind the action.

There are about a half dozen Temptations’ song titles to suggest a punchline for how enjoyable this evening is. Let’s keep it simple: it’s a good bet you’ll walk out of this one on “Cloud Nine.”

‘Ain’t Too Proud: The Life and Times of the Temptations’

Rating: 3 1/2 stars.

When: Through Oct. 29; 7:30 p.m. Tuesdays-Fridays, 2 and 7:30 p.m. Saturdays; 1 and 6:30 p.m. Sundays

Where: Segerstrom Center for the Arts, 600 Town Center Drive, Costa Mesa

Tickets: $29-$129

Information: 949-556-2787; scfta.org

​ Orange County Register 

US household wealth grew 37% in 3 years

• October 18, 2023

The net worth of the typical U.S. household grew at the fastest pace in more than three decades from 2020 through 2022, while relatively low interest rates at that time made it easier for households to pay their debts, according to a government report Wednesday.

Wealth for the median household — the midpoint between the richest and poorest households — jumped 37% during those three years, the Federal Reserve reported, to nearly $193,000. (The figures are adjusted for inflation.) The increase reflected primarily a jump in home values and higher stock prices and a rise in the proportion of Americans who own homes and stocks.

The jump in wealth occurred even as the brief but brutal pandemic recession cost 20 million Americans their jobs in 2020. Extensive government relief aid, totaling about $5 trillion, helped spur a rapid recovery that regained the lost jobs much faster than had been true after the 2008-2009 recession. The additional spending, though, is believed to have helped fuel the worst bout of inflation in four decades.

The broad-based wealth increase helps explain the surprising durability of the U.S. economy this year and the consumer spending that powers about two-thirds of it. For at least a year, economists have been warning of a forthcoming recession. Yet the economy has kept chugging along.

Economic growth in the just-completed July-September quarter might have topped a robust 4% annual rate, boosted by strong consumer spending for physical goods as well as for services, a broad category that includes airline travel, entertainment, restaurant meals and other experiences.

MORTGAGE NEWS: What’s up with rates? Who’s lending? CLICK HERE!

Government-provided stimulus payments in the aftermath of the pandemic also boosted households’ finances. The median value of checking and savings accounts and other cash holdings surged 30%, according to the Fed’s survey, which it conducts every three years. And with borrowing rates historically low, Americans dedicated just 13.4% of their incomes to paying off debt in 2022, the lowest such proportion since the Fed survey began in 1989.

Even so, substantial wealth inequality remained in place during the survey period, reflecting decades of widening disparities between the richest households and everyone else. Among the wealthiest 10% of households, median wealth reached nearly $3.8 million in 2022.

Still, more Americans bought individual stocks after the pandemic — a likely reflection, in some way, of the “meme stock” craze that was fueled partly by stimulus checks. The proportion of families that directly owned stocks — as opposed through mutual funds — jumped from 15% to 21%, a record increase, the survey found.

The median value of individual stock holdings was $15,000, the Fed report said. The average value of direct stock ownership was much higher — $404,000 — the survey found, reflecting the holdings of richer families.

Household net worth rose more, on a percentage basis, for Black and Hispanic households than for white ones, though measured in dollar terms the disparities remained wide. The median net worth of Black households jumped 60% but remained comparatively low at $45,000. For Hispanics, the figure surged 47% to nearly $62,000. Among white households, median household net worth rose 31% to $285,000.

The Fed’s survey found that even as wealth inequality declined, income disparities worsened. Median incomes grew 3% compared with the previous survey, which covered 2017 through 2019. But average incomes, which are swollen by the earnings of the wealthiest one-tenth of households, jumped 15%. The outsize gain among the richest households was driven by profits on stock and property holdings as well as higher wages.

WHAT EXODUS? California has 4th ‘stickiest’ population in US, says Dallas Fed

Yet the income data was also more complicated than usual in this report, Fed officials noted. It did not, for example, capture the effects of stimulus checks. And the report focused on incomes in 2021, when many Americans were still grappling with job losses from the pandemic recession.

Other economic research has found that since the pandemic struck in 2020, wages have actually grown faster for lower-income workers than for wealthier ones. That reflects the fact that restaurants, hotels, warehouses and many other service businesses dramatically raised pay to try to attract desperately needed workers.

A March 2023 research paper by David Autor, an economist at MIT; Arindrajit Dube, an economist at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst; and Anne McGrew, a Ph.D. student at UMass, found that rising wages for the lowest-paid one-tenth of workers from 2019 to 2022 managed to reverse one-quarter of the increase in income inequality since 1980.

Leaving California?

Which state ‘culture’ is best alternative?
Where ‘best state’ rankings tell you to go
What states are safest?
Here are the healthiest states
Want ‘fun’ lifestyle? Move here
States with the strongest job markets
What state is the best bargain?
Bottom line: Where you should go!

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​ Orange County Register 

Apartments led rebound in US housing starts

• October 18, 2023

US home construction rose in September, led by a pickup in multi-family groundbreakings.

Residential starts increased 7% last month after falling by the most in over a year in August, according to government data released Wednesday. Multi-family dwellings rose more than 17% after also slumping the prior month. The number of units started was 7.2% lower than a year ago.

Applications to build — a proxy for future construction — fell to 1.47 million. Permits to build one-family homes ticked up to the highest level since May 2022, while multi-family authorizations declined to the lowest in nearly three years. Permits were 7.2% lower than a year ago.

Mixed bag

“September numbers were a mixed bag, with starts up and permits down, but both remain low by historical standards, suppressed by high mortgage rates,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union. “Builders continue constructing smaller homes using less land, and offering incentives, but to build our way out of the housing shortage we’ll need mortgage rates well below current levels.”

While the monthly increases partially offset a sizable drop in the prior month, the housing market as a whole remains depressed amid soaring mortgage rates and high prices that are driving affordability down to historically lows.

Though the high-rate environment had initially been beneficial to homebuilders — who saw prospective buyers flee to new construction amid limited resale supply — that’s starting to change. The recent pickup in borrowing costs to the highest level in decades is now discouraging many buyers from house-hunting altogether.

As a result, homebuilder sentiment fell to a nine-month low in October as they grew more pessimistic on current and future sales.

“The drop in building permits and homebuilder sentiment shows how tight financing conditions are constraining the US housing market,” says Bloomberg Economics. “Still, the low inventory of existing homes means builders are better positioned to react to any demand.”

Skittish builders

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo gauge slid 4 points to 40 this month, marking a third straight decline.

Sentiment and sales have been under pressure for much of the past year because of rising mortgage rates and high home prices. Though many prospective buyers have pursued new construction amid limited resale inventory, the recent surge in mortgage rates to the highest level in two decades risks a broader retrenchment.

“Builders have reported lower levels of buyer traffic, as some buyers, particularly younger ones, are priced out of the market because of higher interest rates,” Alicia Huey, NAHB chair, said in a statement. “Higher rates are also increasing the cost and availability of builder development and construction loans, which harms supply and contributes to lower housing affordability.”

Bloomberg and CNN contributed to this report.

Leaving California?

Which state ‘culture’ is best alternative?
Where ‘best state’ rankings tell you to go
What states are safest?
Here are the healthiest states
Want ‘fun’ lifestyle? Move here
States with the strongest job markets
What state is the best bargain?
Bottom line: Where you should go!

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​ Orange County Register